Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

Child or animal torture is really the only thing for me that gives me pause. Now if I were to see some of the stuff in movies in real life? No way, but on a screen knowing it is all fake, sure.

Yeah, I've seen some real stomach-turning stuff up on the big screen -- the unrated director's cut of The House That Jack Built comes to mind, among others -- but I don't really have any red lines, at least not in stuff that gets theatrically released.

I always think of the more intense elements of a movie as an opportunity for emotional response practice in the unlikely (but real) event that I ever find myself in an actual crisis situation. A lot of people tend to shut down during an emergency because of the flood of novel stressors that come along with one.

 

[donaldtoo]

I saw the original Friday the 13th in the theater shortly before I graduated high school in 1980. Was not a fan.
Terror Train came out a few months later, and 2 girl friends of mine from school talked me into taking them. They were friends and paid their own way. They each sat on either side of me. There were so many jump scares in that movie, that I never had so many bruises on my arms since…!!!!!
After that, no more.
I loved the attention from them, but it was painful…!!!!!
I can do spooky, but no more horror and gore.

 

[Chi84]

Yeah, I've seen some real stomach-turning stuff up on the big screen -- the unrated director's cut of The House That Jack Built comes to mind, among others -- but I don't really have any red lines, at least not in stuff that gets theatrically released.

I always think of the more intense elements of a movie as an opportunity for emotional response practice in the unlikely (but real) event that I ever find myself in an actual crisis situation. A lot of people tend to shut down during an emergency because of the flood of novel stressors that come along with one.

You’ll do well in the zombie apocalypse.

 

[TP2000]

I believe in the power of 2.5X (or less!)

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Now that's interesting, because it seems to prove my current 60/40 mix is very fair, and even a bit too generous to the studios on my part. And yet it's also adding in almost an additional $300 Million in revenue from "Home Entertainment" (please don't tell me that's DVD's!) and "Television and Streaming".

But it reinforces the Google searches that told me most big Hollywood studio movies are lucky to earn 60% of ticket sales domestically, and 40% of ticket sales overseas for their American studios. Deadline seems to downgrade that a bit to around 58/38, but I'm going to stick with 60/40 and err on the side of Burbank. The Deadline equation also reinforces that using half the production budget for "Marketing" is a good practice, and if anything is erring on Burbank's side just like the 60/40 thing.

I'm guessing they consider "Home Entertainment" to be someone renting Mufasa via Amazon Prime for the night, versus "TV and Streaming" as someone who watched Mufasa via their existing Disney+ subscription payments. How on earth they get those numbers is a mystery, especially considering Disney+ is only creating a few hundred million in revenue per quarter.

Here's how my now-beloved box office profit equation works on Mufasa. It gets to a $39 Million profit from a net 60/40 box office take of $339 Million. But I don't add unknown profit from future streaming or rental estimates.

Mufasa: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $153 Domestic, $186 Overseas = $39 Million Profit

If you were to create a similarly easy and breezy format for the equation, but using Deadline's inclusion of studio finance fees and personnel overhead (added to "Production"), plus an assumption of future TV rental/stream revenues, it looks like this;

Deadline's Version:
Mufasa: $300 Production, $135 Marketing, $147 Domestic, $173 Overseas, $290 Home TV = $175 Million Profit

The key to that big jump in profit seems to be based on an assumption that Mufasa will generate an extra $290 Million in profit in the future based on TV rentals and Disney+ subscriptions. That's certainly not "box office", and it's money that isn't there now as the movie leaves theaters, or even next fiscal quarter, or the next quarter after that.

How much time is Deadline giving Mufasa to generate that $290 Million in future profit from streaming services? Two years? Five years? Thirty years?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Thanks to the fake 2.5 multiplayer and the fake budget numbers for Snow White 2025, Snow White 2025 will only lose a little over 200 million on paper.

 

[TP2000]

Thanks to the fake 2.5 multiplayer and the fake budget numbers for Snow White 2025, Snow White 2025 will only lose a little over 200 million on paper.

Give me a few minutes to get another cocktail napkin just a bit damp, and then I'll get to work on that math!

 

[Disney Irish]

Thanks to the fake 2.5 multiplayer and the fake budget numbers for Snow White 2025, Snow White 2025 will only lose a little over 200 million on paper.

That only is if you assume it makes no money when it leaves theaters, which is not the case. It'll obviously lose money, but I don't think it'll be that much when all is said and done.

 

[TP2000]

Using Deadline's formula of adding on quite a bit to the production/marketing budget for studio overhead, taxes and interest payments, plus adding in a profit from future TV streaming revenue that almost equals the actual box office, here's where that formula gets us with Rachel Zegler's Snow White box office numbers as of yesterday;

Deadline's Version
Snow White: $405 Production, $135 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $44 Overseas, $85 Home TV = $260 Million Loss

How many years of Disney+ and TV rentals on Amazon Prime do you think they'll need to get to $85 Million in profit from Home TV revenue? I'm guessing it would take at least a decade or two, and/or until Miss Zegler has her first Tony.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We’ve been over this. They’d already spent 270M by the end of 2023 (as in 16 months ago). Pulling the plug wouldn’t produce a better financial outcome. Only not making it in the first place.

Loses are estimated by deadline at 115M, which I actually think is low. But it’s not 270M.

Losses + embarrassment + brand erosion + controversy costs a lot more than just losses

Yes…you should just pull the plug when it’s doa

Or they could have sent it to the steaming service…cause everything makes money there, right? Or so the fools think

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Using Deadline's formula of adding on quite a bit to the production/marketing budget for studio overhead, taxes and interest payments, plus adding in a profit from future TV streaming revenue that almost equals the actual box office, here's where that formula gets us with Rachel Zegler's Snow White box office numbers as of yesterday;

Deadline's Version
Snow White: $405 Production, $135 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $44 Overseas, $85 Home TV = $260 Million Loss

View attachment 855479

How many years of Disney+ and TV rentals on Amazon Prime do you think they'll need to get to $85 Million in profit from Home TV revenue? I'm guessing it would take at least a decade or two, and/or until Miss Zegler has her first Tony.

…more like after she passes to natural causes

 

[Disstevefan1]

Losses + embarrassment + brand erosion + controversy costs a lot more than just losses

Yes…you should just pull the plug when it’s doa

Or they could have sent it to the steaming service…cause everything makes money there, right? Or so the fools think

You bring up a good point I was also thinking of.

If a company piles up enough failed movies, some fans lose confidence in the company.
I wont mention the Disney movie but there were parents asking the movie staff, "Is this movie safe for my kids to see?". ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? In my opinion, Disney dug themselves in this hole.

This has happened to me as a fan of WDW parks, I have lost confidence in Disney's ability to bring is the best experience every time. Today my expectations are very low.

As for the talent in the movies, I do NOT want to see/know the person behind the character. I do not want the illusion broken.

I give you an example, in the great $hitt's Creek series, the character Alexis was so GREAT, I avoided seeing her outside the character, I did not want the illusion broken.

Another example of mine, a boyhood hero, NY Met pitcher, Tom Sever. Tom was at a signing event, a fan brought a pristine Tom Sever rookie card for him to sign. Tom signed it but BENT a corner of the card, allegedly on purpose. Illusion broken for me.

Some folks don't care about the person behind the character and that's great too.

 

[DKampy]

Personally I could care less about what a studio profits theatrically…. Since no one even knows what the Studios goals are... With Streaming services advertisement, pvod rental profits, licensing, etc… my main interest is for theaters to do well…. As someone who still enjoys seeing movies in the theater

 

[Disstevefan1]

my main interest is for theaters to do well….

For theaters to do well, studios must make movies that people want to buy tickets for and go to the theater to watch.

Theaters cannot do well screening movies to empty theaters or near empty theaters.

 

[LittleBuford]

Yeah, I've seen some real stomach-turning stuff up on the big screen -- the unrated director's cut of The House That Jack Built comes to mind, among others -- but I don't really have any red lines, at least not in stuff that gets theatrically released.

I always think of the more intense elements of a movie as an opportunity for emotional response practice in the unlikely (but real) event that I ever find myself in an actual crisis situation. A lot of people tend to shut down during an emergency because of the flood of novel stressors that come along with one.

Like you, I have an extremely high tolerance for such things in the context of cinema. Some of the best, most moving films I’ve seen have also been the most intense.

 

[Phroobar]

Here is the full theater for Revenge of the Sith tonight. It's been a long time since I've seen this theater this packed. It should be a ball!

 

[Disney Irish]

For theaters to do well, studios must make movies that people want to buy tickets for and go to the theater to watch.

Theaters cannot do well screening movies to empty theaters or near empty theaters.

Except theaters aren't in the movie business they are in the concession business. So the actual ticket sales are secondary to the people buying popcorn, soda, and candy. So they don't care what movie is playing.

So the point is that all studios have ended up pushing out movies that don't draw an audience over the years. We just happen to track one particular studio, but all have had their issues over the last couple years, but especially so far in 2025. We'll see what happens next week.

 

[Disney Irish]

Here is the full theater for Revenge of the Sith tonight. It's been a long time since I've seen this theater this packed. It should be a ball!

View attachment 855498

Its nice to see the Prequels do well even on re-release.

Disney was smart to do that for the 20th leading up to Star Wars Day next week.

 

[HoustonHorn]

Holy cow. Here is my 6:45 tomorrow night!

 

[BrianLo]

But it reinforces the Google searches that told me most big Hollywood studio movies are lucky to earn 60% of ticket sales domestically, and 40% of ticket sales overseas for their American studios.

Yup! That’s always been a ok.

I'm guessing they consider "Home Entertainment" to be someone renting Mufasa via Amazon Prime for the night, versus "TV and Streaming" as someone who watched Mufasa via their existing Disney+ subscription payments. How on earth they get those numbers is a mystery, especially considering Disney+ is only creating a few hundred million in revenue per quarter.

Direct to consumer makes 6 billion of revenue a quarter and counting. I think this is what you don’t understand. It reports a meagre profit because it spends most of that revenue on content. Like paying 175 million towards Mufasa. That’s where the money goes.

How much time is Deadline giving Mufasa to generate that $290 Million in future profit from streaming services? Two years? Five years? Thirty years?

The streaming receipts are usually the payout for two years that they amortize over.

The Deadline equation also reinforces that using half the production budget for "Marketing" is a good practice, and if anything is erring on Burbank's side just like the 60/40 thing.

Check out Sonic though. That’s my criticism, you really don’t have a great way of figuring out the marketing costs.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I do the same with excess nudity and profanity. I've found excess gore gets stupid and ridiculous after a while.

The anger in excess profanity just hurts emotionally. I don't think I could endure 500 instances of it in a 2h+ movie.

I insist upon excess profanity.

Don't ever watch Succession! The only adjective they know is the f-word - makes no difference what is being described lol.

Sounds like Home! (Jersey.)

I was so disillusioned by the first prequel, which I brought at least 20 people to the theater with me to see at midnight when it was first released, that I did not bother to see the next two films until I was temporarily renting a small room with no cable television, just a DVD player. I found both Dvds at a pawnshop for maybe two dollars each, and I didn’t hate them.

Hayden Christiansen is insufferably whiny. Since there’s absolutely nothing I’m interested in seeing at the theater this week, I may go just to see it on the big screen for the first time… and watch that little so and so burn.

Then again, I may not. I have a brief WDW visit coming up to plan.

P.S. no gory movies, thanks.