Why Walt Disney World Needs a 5th Theme Park By 2025

JIMINYCR

Well-Known Member
A fifth park, done well, with exciting attractions and new restaurants does something thats missing. It brings renewed excitement to Disney. Guests who stay away because "theyve done Disney before", or think theres nothing new to thrill them will come back in droves. Plant the seed that theres a new Disney and they will make plans to go back to experience the new park. Look at the interest one new ride brings, imagine a park FULL of new rides. The money needed for building the profit numbers and pay for the costs of building will come once old & new guests are drawn back on property. But Disney needs to get something especially outstanding to bring in the numbers, not the same old tired attractions. Give the guests something to WOW them and they will abandon Uni and the other FL attractions on that extra day or two away. Money spent in and around the new park keeps money from being spent elsewhere. HP brought excitement to Uni but even then it is not an entire park. What would happen if Disney could do an entire park based on Marvel, or some other Huge drawing theme???
 

Frankie The Beer

Well-Known Member
Based on what I experienced last week at WDW, WDW definitely needs another park to eat up people. Contrary to popular misconception, all parks were pretty busy every day, even DHS and DAK, especially DHS. Even if they add more to DHS and DAK as planned, they will still need more and that more should be another half day park to help with crowds.

Fixing the other parks would be great, but if you want to knock off stock holders socks, even with the minimum of what would probably be a ten billion dollar investment, if Iger dropped a 5th gate news conference, it would be huge. The hype would be staggering.
 

TXDisney

Well-Known Member
Realistically there's enough to do even when spending a whole week at disney. When you factor in t 4 major parks, 2 water parks, downtown disney and the resorts. People shouldn't get bored. Especially since you can't do some of the parks all in 1 day. I'm all for a 5th park, just don't think it's needed.
 

Bluewaves

Well-Known Member
I think the bigger concern is the hotel occupancy, That was the big thing in the 90's keep them in Disney all week so they didn't look elsewhere, I seriously think Disney needs to get their hotel pricing more closely inline with the rest of the market, I know last time I was at Disney I stayed off property, Downtown Disney resort but still not a Disney one, it was nicer and cheaper than a value, hmmm.

Furthermore, from working in an amusement park for a few years, you don't make your money at the gate, you make it in the park in food and merchandise. I know last time I was down I didn't spend much in the parks, food was decent for the price but the bigger issue is merchandising. I can't buy a shirt or anything that says what resort I stayed at, what park I'm in , etc.. If I do a week at Disney and the product is all the same no matter where you are there is no reason to buy more than one shirt or whatever, there isn't anything unique anymore. You can't even tell from the merchandise whether I was in Florida or California or Hong Kong. It all starts with the whole Disney Parks bag's , make a bag that says DisneyWorld and one that says DisneyLand, and get over it already. Make a plush or a shirt that says Epcot , Animal Kingdom, Grand Floridian, or Caribbean Beach or Typhoon Lagoon or Blizzard Beach and make it so you can only get that merchandise there.

On top of that start spending money in the parks, and not with cheap and quick things, there shouldn't be anytime where there isn't an E or D ticket under construction, they usually take 4-5 years to build anyway thats 2 a decade and then multiple smaller rides being constructed at the same time. Furthermore IT is a fickle business, spending billions on one project is a sure route to failure, no other amusement attraction needs or calls for the Magicband type of thing and I have a feeling it will become a noose around the P&L statement for years to come and not really add anything to the parks in the way that the company thinks it will.

Anyhow just my 2 cents, there are tons of other things to do before adding a 5th gate.
 

wdwfan4ver

Well-Known Member
It is a great read, but I'm still not buying the need for a 5th park right now for another 10 years from a capacity standpoint. The other parks needs to be finished first or fixed. Adding another park wouldn't increase of the amounts I visit the parks.

The other parks needs to be finished first or fixed. Adding another park wouldn't increase of the amounts I visit the parks.

AK and DHS is capable of having more capacity than they are at.I need to see were AK and DHS will be at after they are do although I am sure AK still would need more attractions in its park after Avatar.

While MK is maxed for capacity, it doesn't mean there isn't land need to be fix with the big issue being tomorrowland and that needs to be fixed before adding a 5th park.

Right now World Showcase has 4 to 7 expansion pads not used in Epcot and that is without counting the buildings the public doesn't use all year round like Wonders of Life. Epcot also has issues with Future World. Those expansion pads don't exactly have to be for new countries.
 
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wdwfan4ver

Well-Known Member
As for a 5th gate, I don't see it happening anywhere soon, BUT I would like them to start to incorporate their Marvel franchise...Disney's(Marvel) Hero Park!!!! With just the Disney name, they could include all heros and heroins into a park that would be especially geared towards kids...even a small park like a small amusement park size or maybe just build 2 half-day parks instead of one full day! Just ideas so don't get your panties all bunched up! LOL
You have to be careful in terms of how much Marvel can be in a WDW theme park unless IOA is getting a rid of Marvel Characters and that is something I don't see happening at this point. The laws of the contract doesn't allow any Marvel character that is in the Avenger family in a WDW theme park. That means You only can do Big Hero Six and Guardians of the Galaxy for WDW theme parks for the time being.
 

copcarguyp71

Well-Known Member
Why it does not need a 5th gate:

Defurbed Space Mountain
Defurbed Jungle Cruise
Closed Golden Horseshoe
Closed Odyssey
Closed upstairs of Imagination
Closed WOL pavillion
reheated 80's attraction (Captain EO)
outdated film in Soarin' (yes...they are supposedly addressing)
20 year old stunt show (Indiana Jones)
Closed Sounds Dangerous
Closed American Idol
Closed Backlot Tour (yes, carsland...reheated attraction from west coast rumored)
UOE...outdated for at least 10 years
crane behind the castle 2 months out of the year instead of LED lighting upgrades
Defurbed Kali River Rapids
Inoperative Yeti
Dinosaur! Effects out of service for some time
Fountains/water features shut off

I may have missed some and will edit if any more come to mind. Let me say that while I enjoy the parks at one level I have to say that my personal feelings are that until some of these are addressed that it just seems like jingling a shiny object in front of an infant to add a fifth gate. We are on hiatus until 2017 in hopes that taking a good long break will rekindle our sense of wonder and renew the magic of the pixie dust but these are some of the reasons that we have opted out of WDW for a while along with crowd levels and diminished dining experiences. It is this mans dream that 2017 will be a new awakening for us!
 
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Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Why it does not need a 5th gate:

Defurbed Space Mountain
Defurbed Jungle Cruise
Closed Golden Horseshoe
Closed Odyssey
Closed upstairs of WOE
reheated 80's attraction (Captain EO)
outdated film in Soarin' (yes...they are supposedly addressing)
20 year old stunt show (Indiana Jones)
Closed Sounds Dangerous
Closed American Idol
Closed Backlot Tour (yes, carsland...reheated attraction from west coast rumored)
UOE...outdated for at least 10 years
crane behind the castle 2 months out of the year instead of LED lighting upgrades
Defurbed Kali River Rapids
Inoperative Yeti
Dinosaur! Effects out of service for some time
Fountains/water features shut off

I may have missed some and will edit if any more come to mind. Let me say that while I enjoy the parks at one level I have to say that my personal feelings are that until some of these are addressed that it just seems like jingling a shiny object in front of an infant to add a fifth gate. We are on hiatus until 2017 in hopes that taking a good long break will rekindle our sense of wonder and renew the magic of the pixie dust but these are some of the reasons that we have opted out of WDW for a while along with crowd levels and diminished dining experiences. It is this mans dream that 2017 will be a new awakening for us!
Just one... The crane is not behind the Castle for two months. It's only a couple of weeks going up and another two weeks to take it down. The two months last year was from repainting the Castle. Not a usual. If they were to embed lights, then they can never change it again. We will be stuck with the same thing forever. Just wouldn't work.
 

copcarguyp71

Well-Known Member
Just one... The crane is not behind the Castle for two months. It's only a couple of weeks going up and another two weeks to take it down. The two months last year was from repainting the Castle. Not a usual. If they were to embed lights, then they can never change it again. We will be stuck with the same thing forever. Just wouldn't work.

It always seems we are unfortunate enough to be there when it is up and then when we were there last year in Sept it was also up so that may have been a mistake in my posting...but I just do not see how it cannot be more cost effective to upgrade the facade with lighting than to lease a crane and pay those workers for all their time every year as well as kind of taking away the suspension of disbelief and ruining the forced perspective.

Nothing is forever so I have to disagree on the LED lighting upgrade being forever. While they would be doing the upgrade they could make casts of the facade pieces and that in turn would make future upgrades a walk in the park so that they could have them ready made and the future changeovers/upgrades would actually be much faster.
 
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ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It doe make sense, but they really need to flesh out and freshen the current parks before adding another "half day" adventure into the mix!
We can talk about a 5th gate once they finish (re)building the 3rd and 4th ones. I expect DHS to double in effective size and AK to at least be a quarter bigger.
Maybe in 20 years they will need a 5th gate, but in the short term there's Avatar coming to AK, Star Wars and Pixar to DHS, Frozen and hopefully some revamped Future World Pavilions coming to Epcot.
But finish the other four first. And keep them maintained.
I dont think WDW needs a 5th gate just yet, at least not one to open in 10yrs. I think once we get closer to Avatarland, Star Wars Land, whatever else is planned in DHS, the hub expansion and Disney Springs being completed and giving us a much clearer picture as too what kind of occupancy these new attractions will take up we will then need to revisit this topic.
Realistically there's enough to do even when spending a whole week at disney. When you factor in t 4 major parks, 2 water parks, downtown disney and the resorts. People shouldn't get bored. Especially since you can't do some of the parks all in 1 day. I'm all for a 5th park, just don't think it's needed.
It is a great read, but I'm still not buying the need for a 5th park right now for another 10 years from a capacity standpoint. The other parks needs to be finished first or fixed. Adding another park wouldn't increase of the amounts I visit the parks.
Why it does not need a 5th gate:
Thanks for all the replies. However, since it appears I did not make my point clearly, I'll try again.

Quoting from my original post:

With the Magic Kingdom’s (MK) hub redesign and new bus terminal, a third track at Toy Story Mania (TSM), and a third theater at Soarin’ in the planning phases, Disney is taking the right steps to alleviate WDW overcrowding.

More is needed.

WDW attendance is up 10 million since Disney’s Animal Kingdom (DAK) opened in 1998 and can be expected to grow further once new lands are unveiled in DAK and Disney’s Hollywood Studios (DHS). WDW needs new attractions, new lands, and (gasp) perhaps even a 5th Gate to handle the increased attendance.​

And also:

New lands at DAK and DHS will help but they are not enough. If Disney wants to sustain WDW’s long-term average annual attendance increase of 2% (and its associated operating income growth), then Disney needs to take steps to make sure there is capacity for another 10 million gate clicks by 2024.​

Adding new lands and attractions at DAK, DHS, and Epcot are only an intermediate step. They will add capacity but they also will draw more to WDW.

If you think WDW feels crowded now, just imagine how crowded it will feel when both Pandora and Star Wars Land open, each adding one or two high-capacity attractions but also drawing millions more to Orlando.

I remember visiting WDW during the offseason when attractions such as Space Mountain had no more than 20-minute waits during the peak time of day.

Today's WDW feels crowded for nearly the entire year. "Slow seasons" (there used to be more than one) are a thing of the past.

Just imagine what WDW could feel like with another 11 million turnstile clicks in 2025, which is how many have been added since 2003.

Given WDW's and Orlando's long-term tourism trends, adding a few more lands to existing theme parks are not going to be enough in a decade.

In addition to Pandora and Star Wars Land and Toy Story Playland and new attractions at Epcot, Disney needs to earnestly begin the process of planning for the mid-2020s and beyond. As things work within today's corporate Disney, these modest-sized additions are going to take years to complete.

An entirely new theme park will take longer.

It's not merely the park itself. It's also the infrastructure, including the effect it will have on existing hotels.

By 2024, it will have been over a quarter-of-a-century since WDW's last major addition. Unless, Disney starts planning for WDW's long-term future, WDW will reach a point by the mid-2020s that it will no longer be able to significantly contribute to operating income growth.

With WDW already contributing so much to company revenue, Disney needs to position WDW so that its contribution will continue to grow.

Disney had two blockbusters in 2014 yet Studio Entertainment still generated less revenue than WDW. Studio Entertainment revenue was up 22% last year yet it still trailed WDW.

WDW is a source of tremendous revenue and operating income for the company. Corporate Disney needs to keep it that way. After more than 15 years of relatively little physical growth, Disney once again needs to turn its attention back towards Orlando.

In a dozen years, Pandora and Star Wars Land and Toy Story Playland and new attractions at Epcot are not going to be enough.

WDW needs more.

By the middle of the next decade, WDW will need a 5th theme park.
 

The Empress Lilly

Well-Known Member
Please note this is not a rumor that Disney is building another theme park, only an analysis of Disney’s Parks & Resorts (P&R) financial data, suggesting that Disney needs to construct another Walt Disney World (WDW) theme park by the mid-2020s in order to maintain healthy growth within P&R.

The Good

P&R Gross Margin:


After over a decade of subpar financial performance, Disney’s domestic theme parks are once again at former levels of profitability.

For the 2014 fiscal year, P&R gross margin finished at 17.6%, up from 15.8% the year before, and up more than 5% since cratering in 2010. This was the segment’s best margin since 2002.

Even better, excluding the abysmal performance at Disneyland Paris (DLP), P&R gross margin was 20.4%.

Historical context is needed in order to appreciate this number.

P&R gross margin averaged 18.8% from fiscal years 1972 to 1984 (i.e. the first years of WDW operation) and 22.2% from fiscal years 1985 to 2005 (i.e. the Michael Eisner years). Excluding the current year, this number has averaged a disappointing 14.7% under CEO Bob Iger.

This year’s 20.4% (excluding DLP) represents a return to normalcy.

It appears the years of me badmouthing P&R margins are over. :D

Purists might dislike what’s happening at the theme parks but, after 5 years, P&R Chairman Tom Staggs and his team have corrected most of the financial problems created by former P&R Chairmen Paul Pressler and Jay Rasulo.

It’s not all sunshine and roses though.

This year’s improved margin was the result of a 5.3% decrease in P&R selling, general, administrative and other expenses that was “due to the absence of development costs for MyMagic+”. In other words, if Disney hadn’t thrown away so much in previous years on “information technology spending related to MyMagic+”, margins would have improved years ago.

If you read stories about MyMagic+ cost overruns and disappointing financial results, it’s because they are true. :D

As Disney has warned, much of the IT used for MyMagic+ is becoming obsolete much more rapidly than other traditional P&R investments, meaning Disney will need to pump even more money into MyMagic+ in the not-too-distant future. In the coming years, this could once again threaten P&R’s improved margin.

There’s a lesson to be learned here. Sometimes depreciating the cost of a brick & mortar theme park attraction over 25-to-40 years is better for profitability than investing in the latest whiz-bang technology with its accelerated depreciation and obsolescence.

Theme Park Attendance:


Domestic attendance was up 4% for quarter and 3% for the year. Coupled with last year’s 4% gain, Disney hasn’t seen this kind of improvement since 2005/2006.

With the Magic Kingdom’s (MK) hub redesign and new bus terminal, a third track at Toy Story Mania (TSM), and a third theater at Soarin’ in the planning phases, Disney is taking the right steps to alleviate WDW overcrowding.

More is needed.

WDW attendance is up 10 million since Disney’s Animal Kingdom (DAK) opened in 1998 and can be expected to grow further once new lands are unveiled in DAK and Disney’s Hollywood Studios (DHS). WDW needs new attractions, new lands, and (gasp) perhaps even a 5th Gate to handle the increased attendance.

The Bad

There are some worrisome trends, which if left unattended, will cause Disney heartache down the road.

P&R Revenue:


Revenue grew by only 7.2% in 2014, the worst ever in a non-recession year. However, this number was pulled down by DLP, where revenue declined by €30 million. Domestically, P&R revenue was a slightly more respectable 8.2%, the worst in 4 years.

More worrisome than this year’s number is the long-term trend under Iger.

In 9 years, Iger has generated a compound growth rate of only 5.9% annually. For comparison, Eisner generated 10.6% annually, even more impressive considering he maintained this growth rate for over 2 decades. 5.9% is not good, especially when that growth is overwhelmingly the result of higher prices. Add in an 18% domestic theme park attendance increase since Iger took charge, and 5.9% is downright weak.

Record attendance coupled with record prices will result in record revenue. The question is what happens if Disney doesn’t take the steps necessary to keep generating record attendance.

To date, Iger’s revenue growth has come at the expense of ‘Guests’, who pay more for less as Disney has focused on higher prices and cost cuts rather than growing the business organically to improve margins. A business can’t thrive on price increases alone.

In order to achieve sustainable growth, Disney needs to grow revenue by reinvesting in its theme parks, particularly WDW, which represents over half of P&R’s revenue. Disney needs to give consumers genuine reasons to spend more in Orlando.

WDW Investments:

Yes, yes, WDW will add more years from now. However, right now, domestic P&R capital expenditure (capex) finished at 9.6% for the year, one of Disney’s lowest ever. Domestic capex was only 10.0% last year. For comparison, Eisner averaged 18.8% over 21 years while Iger averaged 14.3% for his first 7 years.

We read stories about great things coming to WDW. However, Disney is not spending domestically right now.

Talking about building is not the same as actually building.

This “check is in the mail” routine is beginning to wear thin.

The Ugly


Domestic hotel occupancy:


What? Occupancy was up 4% summer-to-summer and year-to-year. How can that possibly be ugly?

With the opening of Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (SDMT), the Frozen tie-ins, and Diagon Alley, this was a record summer in Orlando.

Even with its new offerings, Universal is no more than a 3-day stop for most, meaning WDW benefited from Uni’s investment. SDMT and Frozen proved to be popular at the theme parks. The domestic economy was on an uptick while International visitors still accounted for 22% of WDW attendance despite weak overseas markets. This was a blockbuster summer in Orlando.

Except when adding an entire new theme park, the last couple of years is as good as it gets. Disney should have reported knock-your-socks-off occupancy numbers this summer.

Instead, WDW managed a measly 83% occupancy. It actually was down 3% from 2 quarters ago when MyMagic+ was an onsite-only perk.

Think about that for a moment. Orlando had a great summer and WDW had record attendance, yet Disney managed only 83%.

Take into consideration WDW’s timeshares along with the 5% of rooms that currently are out-of-service, and WDW’s hotel occupancy was lower than Metro Orlando hotels, much lower than the nearby Buena Vista hotels.

WDW hotel prices are just too darned high.

Domestic Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) was up 5% for the quarter and for the year. With so many “numbers guys” running the theme parks, Disney is going to do everything it can keep that metric climbing. Instead of lowering WDW hotel prices, Disney will look to convert existing rooms into DVC.

Because of the way DVC rooms are counted, this conversion will appear to improve both PRGS and occupancy rates, even if total annual revenue collected at the hotels remains relatively flat. It’s a strategy focused on specific metrics rather than overall results, as Disney looks to free up hotel capital for “re-investment” in its next $6.5 billion (the amount spent in 2014) in stock buybacks. :banghead:

Meanwhile, Disney continues to partner with other hotel chains to provide pseudo-onsite accommodations. Rather than build, Iger clearly would rather have someone else invest the capital. Hey, Iger’s compensation package is tied to return on invested capital, so it’s understandable why Iger wants someone else footing the bill, even if it means less cash for Disney.

Unless you become a DVC member, expect to pay sky-high prices for onsite stays as existing WDW hotel rooms slowly disappear.

Theme Park Spending:


It can be a bad sign when a company changes how it reports a well-established metric. Disney has reported “Parks and Resorts Merchandise, food and beverage” sales for decades.

Until now.

For the first time ever, Disney is reporting “Retail merchandise, food and beverage” sales rather than separate P&R sales. In other words, Disney is tucking retail sales in with theme park sales. With retail sales outside of the theme parks up 11.2% for the year (thank you Frozen), Disney is trying to hide lagging theme park sales behind strong retail sales.

Last year, Disney reported 2013 merchandise, food and beverage sales of $4.189 billion. This year, like magic, Disney reported the same 2013 number as $5.185 billion. Poof, a little accounting hocus-pocus and merchandise revenue is up an extra $1 billion.

As I posted months ago (see the link here), Disney’s recent aggressive price increases have hurt theme park merchandise, food, and beverage sales. Increases at the theme parks have caused ‘Guests’ to alter their spending patterns, resulting in fewer units sold as prices outpace income.

Under Eisner, theme park merchandise, food and beverage sales typically beat admission sales by 3%. In other words, for every $1 in ticket sales, Disney sold $1.03 in merchandise, food, and beverage at the theme parks.

In just the last few years, aggressive price increases have wreaked havoc on this ratio. Last year, theme park merchandise, food, and beverage sales were actually 11% lower than ticket sales.

The disparity continues to widen as merchandise, food, and beverage sales lag further behind ticket sales, hence the need to redefine this metric, making it appear as if merchandise, food, and beverage sales are just peachy.

Higher prices at the theme parks are hurting sales.

Disney needs to find a way to grow P&R revenue other than constant price increases.

What Does It All Mean?


Whether you like what’s happening at the theme parks or not, Disney’s domestic P&R operations are once again performing at old financial levels. Margin is back to where it should be.

Future improvements in profitability through quality cuts will become increasingly difficult. Disney has cut out fat and now is cutting bone.

Furthermore, there are growing signs that Disney’s aggressive price increases are altering the way guests spend at the resorts. Hotel occupancy is weak despite record attendance while merchandise, food, and beverage sales are lagging.

There are only so many pennies that can be squeezed out of 'Guests'. Only so much can be done with show cuts and higher prices. After years of both of these, ‘Guests’ are beginning to revolt.

Paraphrasing what Princess Leah once said, “The more you tighten your grip, Iger, the more Guest spending will slip through your fingers.”

Currently, P&R is financially sound but is headed towards dangerous waters. The challenge facing Disney is charting a course towards sustainable growth. The current direction of quality cuts and higher prices is the wrong heading.

With WDW generating more than half of P&R revenue, any path to meaningful growth begins in Orlando. That means building, a lot of building.

New lands at DAK and DHS will help but they are not enough. If Disney wants to sustain WDW’s long-term average annual attendance increase of 2% (and its associated operating income growth), then Disney needs to take steps to make sure there is capacity for another 10 million gate clicks by 2024.

With Disney’s Orlando business financially robust and WDW’s existing theme parks bursting at the seams, it’s time for Disney to start planning for a 5th Gate.
I love the sheer ambition and number crunching of this! I may or may not agree with several of your interpretations and conclusions, but there is no denying you are on a rarefied level of debate all on your own. =D


5th gate - Disney should build one because I want one and would pay money to see it. <- that is not a stupid reply, or simple reasoning, but a clever reply expressed simply.

Also, I think the recent success of UNI showed analysts were premature to call the Orlando market saturated, zero-sum, or matured. Potter increased existing markets and opened new ones.
 

rct247

Well-Known Member
Thanks for all the replies. However, since it appears I did not make my point clearly, I'll try again.

Quoting from my original post:

With the Magic Kingdom’s (MK) hub redesign and new bus terminal, a third track at Toy Story Mania (TSM), and a third theater at Soarin’ in the planning phases, Disney is taking the right steps to alleviate WDW overcrowding.

More is needed.

WDW attendance is up 10 million since Disney’s Animal Kingdom (DAK) opened in 1998 and can be expected to grow further once new lands are unveiled in DAK and Disney’s Hollywood Studios (DHS). WDW needs new attractions, new lands, and (gasp) perhaps even a 5th Gate to handle the increased attendance.​

And also:

New lands at DAK and DHS will help but they are not enough. If Disney wants to sustain WDW’s long-term average annual attendance increase of 2% (and its associated operating income growth), then Disney needs to take steps to make sure there is capacity for another 10 million gate clicks by 2024.​

Adding new lands and attractions at DAK, DHS, and Epcot are only an intermediate step. They will add capacity but they also will draw more to WDW.

If you think WDW feels crowded now, just imagine how crowded it will feel when both Pandora and Star Wars Land open, each adding one or two high-capacity attractions but also drawing millions more to Orlando.

I remember visiting WDW during the offseason when attractions such as Space Mountain had no more than 20-minute waits during the peak time of day.

Today's WDW feels crowded for nearly the entire year. "Slow seasons" (there used to be more than one) are a thing of the past.

Just imagine what WDW could feel like with another 11 million turnstile clicks in 2025, which is how many have been added since 2003.

Given WDW's and Orlando's long-term tourism trends, adding a few more lands to existing theme parks are not going to be enough in a decade.

In addition to Pandora and Star Wars Land and Toy Story Playland and new attractions at Epcot, Disney needs to earnestly begin the process of planning for the mid-2020s and beyond. As things work within today's corporate Disney, these modest-sized additions are going to take years to complete.

An entirely new theme park will take longer.

It's not merely the park itself. It's also the infrastructure, including the effect it will have on existing hotels.

By 2024, it will have been over a quarter-of-a-century since WDW's last major addition. Unless, Disney starts planning for WDW's long-term future, WDW will reach a point by the mid-2020s that it will no longer be able to significantly contribute to operating income growth.

With WDW already contributing so much to company revenue, Disney needs to position WDW so that its contribution will continue to grow.

Disney had two blockbusters in 2014 yet Studio Entertainment still generated less revenue than WDW. Studio Entertainment revenue was up 22% last year yet it still trailed WDW.

WDW is a source of tremendous revenue and operating income for the company. Corporate Disney needs to keep it that way. After more than 15 years of relatively little physical growth, Disney once again needs to turn its attention back towards Orlando.

In a dozen years, Pandora and Star Wars Land and Toy Story Playland and new attractions at Epcot are not going to be enough.

WDW needs more.

By the middle of the next decade, WDW will need a 5th theme park.

I completely agree with your logic with capacity issues and increasing attendance, but like I previously mentioned, even with a 5th gate, that doesn't mean crowds will be evened out. Look at the 4 parks now. On a given day you can probably fit the attendance of DAK and DHS into the Magic Kingdom and MK may still be busier.

It isn't unheard of, but typically the average tourist to central FL does this:
-1 Day - Magic Kingdom (maybe with park hopper) or Universal (maybe with park hopper)
-2 Days - Magic Kingdom and Universal
-3 Days - Magic Kingdom, Another Disney Park or Universal, Disney Park Hop Day
-4 Days - Magic Kingdom, Another Disney Park, Disney Park Hop Day or Universal, Disney Park Hop Day or Sea World
-5 Days - Day for each Disney Park, Pool Day or Universal or Sea World
-6 Days - Day for each Disney park, Universal, Pool Day or Sea World
-7 Days - Day for each Disney park, Universal, Pool Day, Universal or Sea World

And you get the picture... The point is that most tourists won't pick another Disney park other than Magic Kingdom if they only have one day set aside for Disney. Adding to the other parks will attract to those parks, but in conjunction with Magic Kingdom. As much as we hated to see it in some aspects, Harry Potter opening up down the street just took a day away from another Disney park, not from the Magic Kingdom. Magic Kingdom needs to drastically fix it's capacity issue before a 5th park is built, along with finishing out the other 3 Disney parks.
 

BrianV

Well-Known Member
I completely agree with your logic with capacity issues and increasing attendance, but like I previously mentioned, even with a 5th gate, that doesn't mean crowds will be evened out. Look at the 4 parks now. On a given day you can probably fit the attendance of DAK and DHS into the Magic Kingdom and MK may still be busier.

It isn't unheard of, but typically the average tourist to central FL does this:
-1 Day - Magic Kingdom (maybe with park hopper) or Universal (maybe with park hopper)
-2 Days - Magic Kingdom and Universal
-3 Days - Magic Kingdom, Another Disney Park or Universal, Disney Park Hop Day
-4 Days - Magic Kingdom, Another Disney Park, Disney Park Hop Day or Universal, Disney Park Hop Day or Sea World
-5 Days - Day for each Disney Park, Pool Day or Universal or Sea World
-6 Days - Day for each Disney park, Universal, Pool Day or Sea World
-7 Days - Day for each Disney park, Universal, Pool Day, Universal or Sea World

And you get the picture... The point is that most tourists won't pick another Disney park other than Magic Kingdom if they only have one day set aside for Disney. Adding to the other parks will attract to those parks, but in conjunction with Magic Kingdom. As much as we hated to see it in some aspects, Harry Potter opening up down the street just took a day away from another Disney park, not from the Magic Kingdom. Magic Kingdom needs to drastically fix it's capacity issue before a 5th park is built, along with finishing out the other 3 Disney parks.


I agree. Most trips to disney include 1 or more days at MK. You might skip any of the other parks, but you always make it into the MK. We have NEVER gone to disney and skipped MK. But we have on some trips skipped each of the other parks. (Last trip ak, trip before Dhs, trip before, Epcot...)

Now that universal is so nice, we spend entire vacations there (we never do disney and univeral in the same trip), but in my mind, they are not instead of wdw, but in addition.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
My belief is that there are two options and both are needed:

1) Expand the parks that you have and actually utilize the space/ buildings that already exist.

2) Build a 5th new park more similar to California Adventure with original concepts and themes.

They need both because some folks will always want to be in the Magic Kindom and attendance continues to grow. Its current capacity is not enough to maintain a quality experience and continue increased attendance.

The 5th park will also help eat up some crowds, but it alone cannot stop increasing demand at the existing parks.
 

EOD K9

Well-Known Member
My two cents. They don't need a fifth gate now. They need to fix what they have, expand what they have, and eventually add another gate. To add to the everyone goes to MK, I will say this....it's true. When my wife and ten month old daughters finish our cruise next year, we are staying at BLT just so we can hit MK for one day. It might be more for nostalgia purposes, but how can I be so close and not go in?
 

DManRightHere

Well-Known Member
For Disney hotels..is 86% really measly? Disney has a LOT of rooms and they set their rates high for a reason..

The same goes for increasing merch and food prices. If the demand is to high, the price goes up to slow demand, but I sure didn't think it would decrease sales...the increases were not that much were they?
 

MarkTwain

Well-Known Member
Not sure I'm sold on the 5th park notion yet, but it sounds like at the very least they need to make some major changes to their hotel and merchandise divisions.

It sounds like the major issue with the hotels is pricing - it's not like Disney has rent to pay on these things, can they not simply lower prices? It also sounds like they engage in a lot of "airline pricing," altering room prices based on who's doing the booking and when and how they're booking it. A straightforward room = price structure would be much easier to navigate and therefore more attractive to most guests. And anything would be more sustainable long-term than selling off rooms (and all their potential profits) to DVC guests.

As for merchandise... although high, I would argue that merch prices aren't nearly as mind-bogglingly, exorbitantly, bordering-on-theft bad as the hotel rooms are (they're often not even as high as the Universal-themed merchandise down the road). I feel here that the problem with merchandise is the appeal and the quality. As a merch cast member, I dealt with MANY returns over shoddy-quality products, and I outright required guests to test any pens that they planned on purchasing from me, since they had maybe a 30% rate of actually working (and at $6.95 apiece that's pretty bad). A sale is not a sale if guests have to return it a few hours later. More variety and "destination stores" like the Haunted Mansion gift shop wouldn't be bad, either. Anytime you can make the experience of visiting a shop like an attraction in itself, you're onto something (see Harry Potter).
 

DManRightHere

Well-Known Member
If you had a family you would notice the difference pretty fast. I assume you don't have kids???? WDW for a family of 4 or 5 staying a week on property can be easily $10K. It relentlessly adds up day, after day. Days all done and the bar wants $6.50 for a beer......for that, might as well bring my own. Same goes for snacks, lunch etc. That's what is happening. I just saw a Groupon today for $65 a night for a hotel in Lake Buena vista. If you're on a budget that room looks really good.

No, I don't have kids, but I've been with a group of 2, 4, and 6 and we can stay under $1,300 a person at a moderate resort, food, souvenirs, etc. This does require promotions, or rent points for a deluxe.

Yes, there are lower cost outside hotels because they are competing for business, if they had high demand the price would not be that low.
 

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