Top 5 Movies for 2016 (They did it)

Princess Leia

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
Beasts ended up with $75M. It had a budget of $180M, and even with Moana coming out on Wednesday, I don't see it dropping that much next weekend.
That being said, most parents are going to take their kids to see Moana (heck, I want to see it Wednesday night, and I'll probably be seeing Beasts again on Friday).
 
WhatJaneSays

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I threw my back out so I didn't get to go find any beasts yet; I probably won't be able to until early December.

The industry rumor mill for Fantastic Beasts is not looking overly promising. It's certainly done well enough not to worry on it's sequel or two. Apparently the number of tickets sold versus the expectations was an big dip. It did amazing in presales dollar-wise but it was primarily opening weekend and "enhanced" tickets so the individual number of tickets sold was lower than a typical $75 million should be at. That's not necessarily bad, but a smaller pool of initial viewers creates a smaller pool of re-watchers. (Movies don't make a billion dollars on 100 million people seeing it once - they make it on the 20 million that see it 5 times.)
 
Princess Leia

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
WhatJaneSays said:
I threw my back out so I didn't get to go find any beasts yet; I probably won't be able to until early December.

The industry rumor mill for Fantastic Beasts is not looking overly promising. It's certainly done well enough not to worry on it's sequel or two. Apparently the number of tickets sold versus the expectations was an big dip. It did amazing in presales dollar-wise but it was primarily opening weekend and "enhanced" tickets so the individual number of tickets sold was lower than a typical $75 million should be at. That's not necessarily bad, but a smaller pool of initial viewers creates a smaller pool of re-watchers. (Movies don't make a billion dollars on 100 million people seeing it once - they make it on the 20 million that see it 5 times.)
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I think that once Dumbledore shows up in the second movie, more people will be inclined to go see it. The first was pretty exposition heavy, which doesn't exactly hurt all movies (examples- Star Wars: A New Hope, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Hunger Games, and Harry Potter 1), but the second film will get to let loose a little.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I missed this thread, but had some similar sentiments a while ago likely in a Spirited thread that Dis was on track for the top five movies of the year.

I think we can pretty safely conclude Fantastic Beasts won't overtake Jungle Book. Barring Rogue One gravely missing expectations, what a year.

I think the industry has established that the tent pole strategy is the worst... unless you are Dis whom for some reason who has simultaneously managed to lean up their film slate and make it consistently better. A lot of changes in the industry are going to occur soon.

I'm still maintaining they miss the 3 billion domestic this year, but hit it in 2018.
 
Flippin'Flounder

Flippin'Flounder

Well-Known Member
BrianLo said:
I'm still maintaining they miss the 3 billion domestic this year, but hit it in 2018.
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I think it's looking more likely now than ever. 300 million from Moana, and 400 million for Rogue One would put it over 3 billion. Dr. Strange is also still making money, so even if Moana can't quite get there (it took Zootopia 6 weeks to reach 300 million) it's still very possible.
 
Matt_Black

Matt_Black

Well-Known Member
Flippin'Flounder said:
I think it's looking more likely now than ever. 300 million from Moana, and 400 million for Rogue One would put it over 3 billion. Dr. Strange is also still making money, so even if Moana can't quite get there (it took Zootopia 6 weeks to reach 300 million) it's still very possible.
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Moana already broke the Tuesday preview record, so that's a good sign in it's favor.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Flippin'Flounder said:
I think it's looking more likely now than ever. 300 million from Moana, and 400 million for Rogue One would put it over 3 billion. Dr. Strange is also still making money, so even if Moana can't quite get there (it took Zootopia 6 weeks to reach 300 million) it's still very possible.
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I incorrectly calculated and Moana has an extra week of 2016 that Frozen didn't.

I was actually reflecting on it last night that since Moana is doing Frozen type numbers, Dr Strange, Pete's Dragon, Finding Dory added about 25 million each more than I anticipated, it's close. The added change they needed to close the gap is getting there.

But yes, assuming Rogue One does 2/3 of TFA... that's the thing. Certainly not impossible, but it's still a huge number.
 
WhatJaneSays

WhatJaneSays

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Original Poster
The closer to the end of the year we get the more I'm expecting them to make that domestic 3 billion mark. They're already past the 2 billion mark not even counting the estimated opening on Moana.

Considering the number of under-performers Disney had this year I though it was out of range for 2016, but man ... Moana and Rogue One are just unknown factors. Those extra few days can make an even bigger difference when December 31st lands on a Saturday.
 
WhatJaneSays

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
As stated Batman v Superman fell to #6 and our new Top 5 at the moment are:

1 Captain America: Civil War - $1,153.3
2 Finding Dory - $1,026.4
3 Zootopia - $1,023.8
4 The Jungle Book - $966.5
5 The Secret Life of Pets - $873.7

Doctor Strange has settled in at #9 with an estimated $616.0 to date. It'll likely be a bit to overtake #8 Suicide Squad at $745.6, but still doable even with it not opening in Japan until January. It's on track to preform somewhere between Captain America 2 and Guardians of the Galaxy.

Moana just made the list at #62 with an estimated $97.4 over it's 5 day holiday "opening". While it's doing great, at year end I don't imagine it breaking into the top 5; top 10 could happen.

Fantastic Beasts appears to be having a better second weekend percentage wise when compared to it's first weekend's "under-performance" with an estimated $473.7 at #13 for the year.
 
WhatJaneSays

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Our Top 5 haven't moved.

Doctor Strange still at #9 after the weekend estimate bringing it to $634.9
Moana landed at #39 with an estimate of $177.3
(Fantastic Beasts is playing a good catch-up game at #10 with $607.9)

Rogue One is 11 days out, and it's the only movie remaining this year likely to crack the $875 million world wide to make the Top 5. Current estimates are for a $140-$150 million domestic opening weekend, $420-$460 domestic total; worldwide estimates vary wildly but most put it in the $920 million to $1.2 billion range.
 
D

doctornick

Well-Known Member
I don't think Moana has been released in too many markets yet, has it?

Anyway, it's a little underperforming at the box office compared to what I expected, but animated films can accumulate for a long time. It might end up doing very well over the Christmas/New Years time period, especially depending on how well Sing is received.
 
WhatJaneSays

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
doctornick said:
I don't think Moana has been released in too many markets yet, has it?

Anyway, it's a little underperforming at the box office compared to what I expected, but animated films can accumulate for a long time. It might end up doing very well over the Christmas/New Years time period, especially depending on how well Sing is received.
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Moana has released in a fairly good amount of markets, but not a ton of the major foreign markets. Namely: China, UK, France, Mexico, and Russia; none of them are likely to be particularly strong markets for Moana. It's not hitting Australia, Germany, and Italy until near Christmas; and not Brazil, South Korea, or Hong Kong until January; Japan is way out in March.

Expanded release schedules work well for some movies and are disasters for others. Big Hero 6 had a similar release schedule and similar domestic box office so far, but it was also a superhero movie and those track differently than "princess" movies. Really the last few years of trying to predict non-US market expectations of movies is 75% guess work.
 
WhatJaneSays

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
There's been a little bit of movement in our Top 10.

Fantastic Beasts (#9) has finally overtaken Doctor Strange(#10) worldwide; though Strange is still ahead in domestic. Beasts, while doing better, is still pulling less in per theater or screen than anticipated. This shouldn't change the plans for the next sequel or 2, but there are some murmurings of shortening the previously intended 5 movie series. Neither Beasts or Strange are likely to gain much ground before the end of the year as only Strange has any further international release dates, and that's Japan in late January.

Moana estimates are still coming in for the weekend but the projection is $238.8 million, landing her over 10 spots up at #28. She still has a handful of international openings coming this year still.

Rogue One is 4 days out and estimates staying on target for opening weekend: $140-$150 million domestic, $200-250 million foreign.
 
Princess Leia

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
WhatJaneSays said:
There's been a little bit of movement in our Top 10.

Fantastic Beasts (#9) has finally overtaken Doctor Strange(#10) worldwide; though Strange is still ahead in domestic. Beasts, while doing better, is still pulling less in per theater or screen than anticipated. This shouldn't change the plans for the next sequel or 2, but there are some murmurings of shortening the previously intended 5 movie series. Neither Beasts or Strange are likely to gain much ground before the end of the year as only Strange has any further international release dates, and that's Japan in late January.
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Beasts is tricky. It went from 3 to 5 films because Rowling said there was too much to put into the films, but it's hard to judge that, because we don't have the content to read before the movies. Potter was filled with cut material. The length of FB 1 felt more like HP 1- short, explanatory, fun. We know that the timeline will go from 1926-1945, and focus on Dumbledore and Grindelwald, but I don't see either man becoming a major character until the 3rd movie (as it currently stands, Dumbledore won't be a major character in FB 2).

Would these movies be more successful if the books were released first? Maybe. Tracking Rowling's post-Potter success is tricky. 'The Casual Vacancy', her first non-magical novel, got middling reviews. She released 'The Cuckoo's Calling' under the name Robert Galbraith, and while it got great reviews, it didn't become popular until the secret identity was leaked. The other Galbraith novels ('Cormoran Strike' series) seem to be doing alright. They're not Potter, but they're actually really well written detective stories. If Rowling chose to write a legitimate Fantastic Beasts series, they could be bestsellers.
 
Princess Leia

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
Rogue One set the Thursday box office record for 2016 with $29 million, eclipsing Batman v. Superman and Captain America: Civil War. However, it didn't come close to setting a new record, which The Force Awakens did last year ($57 million).
 
Princess Leia

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
Weekend box office report:

Rogue One had an opening weekend of $290.5 million, and $155 of that was domestic. Disney was predicting $120M-$150M domestically, so this is a good sign.
  1. Rogue One
  2. Moana
  3. Office Christmas Party
  4. Collateral Beauty
  5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  6. Manchester By the Sea
  7. La La Land
  8. Arrival
  9. Doctor Strange
  10. Nocturnal Animals
 

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