I have been to Shanghai, I went the first week of December since I was told that was low season in China. Weekdays were perfect, low to decent sized crowds, weekends were crowded so we left the park and enjoyed our hotel and went to do some sightseeing. Download the app, I check the wait times every now and then out of curiosity and it is not uncommon to find triple digit waits on attractions on the weekends, especially Soaring. I'm returning again next month so I'm curious to see if it's still the same. Tokyo Disneyland has always been known for crowds, but I have never personally witnessed the overpacked conditions I see on the internet. I've only been to Tokyo Disney Resort a couple more times than you, including Christmas and Halloween seasons and I did not find the crowd levels to be extraordinary with the exception of Saturdays. I've been in early January a couple of times and both parks are practically deserted (although with significantly reduced operating hours). Hong Kong Disneyland is a very nice park and uncrowded, but small. I've only visited as a side trip after going to Tokyo, I wouldn't make a special trip just for HKDL yet.