TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[PhotoDave219]

So.... The Annual TEA/AECOM Theme Index and Museum Index attendance report drops tomorrow.

Find the report here once the link on this blog goes live on June 2.

Any predictions/guestimates on what will come out?

 

[sshindel]

I know this is going WAY out there, but I'd guess large bumps in USF and MK, something in the 2-5% range for IoA, DAK, 1-2% for DHS and 0-1% for Epcot.

Of course, we know that last year was a record year for Orlando, so it's likely that I'm underestimating.

 

[NJBrandon]

The only prediction I have is that Disney will make sure their numbers are higher than Universal's.

 

[Mouse_Trap]

USF to have overtaken DAK and DHS. I also wouldn't mind betting that IOA to do this same.

 

[wdwfan4ver]

I am predicting that Universal Studios Japan is going to be ranked 6th or 7th in theme park attendance worldwide. I read earlier this year that Universal Studios Japan got an increase due to Harry Potter for 2014 and see them passing Disney Hollywood Studios, Animal Kingdom and Disneyland Park at Disneyland Paris as a result.

 

[sshindel]

USF to have overtaken DAK and DHS. I also wouldn't mind betting that IOA to do this same.

Wouldn't that require USF to have grown by close to 50% and IoA by over 25%?

 

[lazyboy97o]

Wouldn't that require USF to have grown by close to 50% and IoA by over 25%?

That or massive drops in visitation to EPCOT Center. A third long-shot would be radically new numbers based on AECOM dramatically revising their methodology.

 

[sshindel]

That or massive drops in visitation to EPCOT Center. A third long-shot would be radically new numbers based on AECOM dramatically revising their methodology.

While I really, really wish that Epcot would suffer a massive drop, the best I feel I can wish for is no growth. I think overall tourism to Orlando is growing so much that it would be crazy to see a massive drop in Epcot.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm going to play here, using TP's observed crowd data to make some suggestions.

For Entertainment Purposes Only, Merely Fun with Numbers

MK:

I think MK very well might break the 20M/year barrier. If they break 7.6% growth They pass it. Its very possible.

If you take out the OffPeak crowds caused by hard ticket events (31), MK's total OffPeak drop from 69(19% of the year) to 38 (12% of the year), it starts showing a small pattern. Those 38 times should be easily off-set by their 52 Peak Days (14.25% of the year). The rest of the time, 244 "Average" or straight up solid days. On those 244 average days? 93 (25.5%) were ranked 4 & 5, suggesting slightly below average & average crowds. 151 times (41.4%) it ranked 6 & 7, or above average. That puts 203 days (55.6%) of the year above as an average crowd.

So its going to be close. Data suggests the growth should be at least 6-7% at MK at the very least. However, I'm feeling especially bullish so I'm going to predict 10% growth at MK, MK is the first Theme Park (in the World) to break 20M guests/year. Champagne is everywhere and this becomes the talk of IPW at the closing party at Universal. MK gets 20.4M.

(Disney Celebrates by Raising Prices)

Epcot:

Epcot had 49 Peak days (13.4%) vs 97 (26.5%) Off. The very off peak days (1&2) are in line with MK, right around 12%. Looking at their average days? 125 (34.25%) below average/average. 94 (25.75%) above average. Makes it 39.2% of the year Epcot had an above average crowd. Call it 5% (as the F&W/F&G numbers dont factor in with my crowd data) and they come close to 12M. Otherwise? 3% and we finish around 11.75M

Studios

Completely flat at DHS. The words to describe the conditions at DHS lack definition, 63% of the year (232 days) they had an average crowd or below, with most of those coming in the first half of the year, before Frozen mania hit. Total of 124 (34%) offpeak. The very off peak (1/2) days were 20.2% (74). Numbers for above average/below average are below Epcot's by about 4%. Studios saw an above average (6+) crowd 36.4% of the year, or 133 times. I'll be generous and say 3% and say they hit 10.4M

DAK

DAK performed a lot better than DHS. 55% Average and below days vs 45% Above average. Only thing negative is their 111 offpeak (30%) days. Call it 5%, DAK hits 10.7M, pulling farther ahead of DHS.

TL;DR? MK 10%, EP 5%, DHS 3% and DAK 5%.

It will be fun to match up the numbers that come out tomorrow with this.

 

[RSoxNo1]

My guess, USF will be close to DHS and DAK but not overtake them.

 

[hopemax]

Do we win anything?

My prediction is that both Universal parks break 9 million, which would be 27% for the Studios, and 11% for IOA.

For WDW, haven't thought about it as much. MK breaks the 19 million barrier, 5% would get it to 19.5. DHS unfortunately due to Frozen, they get 4-5%, Epcot and AK about 2%.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'm a west coaster so my guesstimate is DL sees small gains to 16.5 million and DCA sees a big bump to almost 10 million.

I also think Disney keeps 9 of the top 10 (with Uni Japan) but wouldn't be shocked to see Tokyo Disney take #1 from MK.

 

[maxairmike]

Oh, and a minor issue; they bumped the release date back to Wednesday the 3rd.

Take from that what you will.

 

[roj2323]

I know this is going WAY out there, but I'd guess large bumps in USF and MK, something in the 2-5% range for IoA, DAK, 1-2% for DHS and 0-1% for Epcot.

Of course, we know that last year was a record year for Orlando, so it's likely that I'm underestimating.

I have a feeling DHS will be higher. The park was regularly blowing past its attendance projections for months during Frozen summer fun and Star wars weekends. Christmas was rather busy as well.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Do we win anything?

My prediction is that both Universal parks break 9 million, which would be 27% for the Studios, and 11% for IOA.

For WDW, haven't thought about it as much. MK breaks the 19 million barrier, 5% would get it to 19.5. DHS unfortunately due to Frozen, they get 4-5%, Epcot and AK about 2%.

You win a price increase!

Oh, and a minor issue; they bumped the release date back to Wednesday the 3rd.

Take from that what you will.

JUST saw that. It was June 2 when I started this thread. Maybe they don't want to deal with IPW?

I have a feeling DHS will be higher. The park was regularly blowing past its attendance projections for months during Frozen summer fun and Star wars weekends. Christmas was rather busy as well.

The data doesnt support that. SWW didnt draw anything larger than "average" and the summer numbers are in line with 2013. Christmas? About the same as DAK and in line with 2013. 64% of the time, they drew an average crowd or worse.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I want to see what bump in attendance Ratatouille gave WDSP.

 

[roj2323]

You win a price increase!



JUST saw that. It was June 2 when I started this thread. Maybe they don't want to deal with IPW?



The data doesnt support that. SWW didnt draw anything larger than "average" and the summer numbers are in line with 2013. Christmas? About the same as DAK and in line with 2013. 64% of the time, they drew an average crowd or worse.

What data? The report hasnt been released yet. Besides i was working there and park was nuts. We were regularly going 3,000-5,000 over projections daily.

 

[PhotoDave219]

What data? The report hasnt been released yet. Besides i was working there and park was nuts. We were regularly going 3,000-5,000 over projections daily.

All of the Touring Plans Data for observed crowds for 2014. Thats the numbers I'm playing with. (Yes, I have spent the past several days plugging data into spreadsheets and trying to make some sense of it)
Its amusing and I'll be the most shocked one if I'm even close. Anyways.....

Over projection, sure. When you're projecting nobody and an average crowd shows, you're gonna go over.

Edit:The numbers suggest that DHS wasn't as much of a dumpster fire as 2013. 2013 showed 147 off-peak days (40%) whereas 2014 showed a mere 124 (34%) Both were within 2% of the Average and Below crowd / Above average crowd breakdown. Still showing 61% they get an average crowd or less.

 

[roj2323]

Over projection, sure. When you're projecting nobody and an average crowd shows, you're gonna go over.

The projections are made based on multiple previous years attendance for any given day. The numbers do fluctuate depending on a variety of factors (weather being a biggie) but going over projectios by 3-5k a day for months as it happened with frozen summer fun will deffinitly have an effect on year over year attendance.

That said we could debate this for hours so instead lets get some sleep and wait for the actual numbers to come out.

 

[WDW1974]

Oh, and a minor issue; they bumped the release date back to Wednesday the 3rd.

Take from that what you will.

Great. Another day to discuss substance instead of phonied up Disney numbers!

I wonder if the Disney lawyers are fighting to make sure certain parks don't surpass others ... Nah, that's not how Robert A. Iger conducts himself at all!