URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH
EMBEDDED BOWS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FL.
ADDITIONAL QLCS-LEADING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOIST /NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
AIRMASS. RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT BOTH
BOWING SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CITRUS CLAY
COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL
FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON
HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAFAYETTE
LAKE LEVY MARION
NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SEMINOLE
SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION
VOLUSIA
$$
TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011
WT 0079
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%
&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO
bulletin - eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service melbourne fl
347 pm edt wed mar 30 2011
the national weather service in melbourne has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Lake county in florida
western orange county in florida
western seminole county in florida
western volusia county in florida
* until 500 pm edt.
* at 341 pm edt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size
hail...and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms
were located along a line extending from 29 miles west of the
villages to 27 miles west of mascotte...and moving east at 55 to
60 mph.
* other locations in the warning include...but are not limited to
...lady lake...leesburg...lake harris...clermont...apopka...
Lake george...the attractions area...winter garden...apopka...
Windermere...de leon springs...de land...altamonte springs...
Longwood...sanford...orlando...lake helen...maitland...and winter
park.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an
hour and or large destructive hail. Frequent to excessive lightning
and very heavy rain will also be possible. If the storm approaches
you...seek shelter in an enclosed building on the lowest floor. Keep
away from windows.
A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. If a tornado
is spotted...act quickly and move to a place of safety in a sturdy
structure...such as a small interior room.
If on or near an inland lake...get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember...lightning can strike out to 15 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder...you are
close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now.
Don't be caught on the water in a thunderstorm!
A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt wednesday evening
for east central florida.
Mesoscale discussion 0318
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0234 pm cdt wed mar 30 2011
areas affected...nrn and cntrl fl
concerning...tornado watch 79...
Valid 301934z - 302030z
corrected for watch type in header
the severe weather threat for tornado watch 79 continues.
Organized qlcs and attendant mesolow /analyzed approximately 25 nw
gnv/ have shifted onshore the w coast of fl. Embedded circulations
have occasionally been observed within this line...but recent sfc
observations indicate sfc winds have veered towards the sw across
the cntrl/nrn fl peninsula. This has resulted in nearly
unidirectional and weak low-level shear profiles /generally 10-15
kts in the 0-1 km layer per vwp data/...and combined with
propagation speeds generally between 35-45 kts and quasi-linear
convective mode...favoring a primary threat for damaging winds.
However...a threat for brief tornadoes should persist along the line
beneath embedded storm-scale circulations. Although low-level
convergence has weakened somewhat...ample solar insolation across
the cntrl peninsula has allowed the environment to sufficiently
destabilize /mlcape values exceeding 2000 j/kg/...and should
continue to maintain deep convection as it propagates ewd across the
towards the ern fl peninsula.
bulletin - eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service melbourne fl
443 pm edt wed mar 30 2011
the national weather service in melbourne has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern brevard county in florida
eastern lake county in florida
orange county in florida
northern osceola county in florida
seminole county in florida
volusia county in florida
* until 545 pm edt.
* at 439 pm edt...national weather service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size
hail...and destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. These storms
were located along a line extending from pierson to deland to
cassia to wekiwa springs state park to lockhart to windermere to
7 miles west of animal kingdom...moving east at 60 mph.
* these storms...along with individual cells ahead of the main
line...will affect most communities in the affected counties. If you
see threatening weather approaching...take shelter at once.
These storms are producing numerous reports of damage at this time.
Take shelter now!
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an
hour and or large destructive hail. Frequent to excessive lightning
and very heavy rain will also be possible. If the storm approaches
you...seek shelter in an enclosed building on the lowest floor. Keep
away from windows.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt wednesday evening
for east central florida. Severe storms can produce tornadoes with
little advance warning.
Mesoscale discussion 0319
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0341 pm cdt wed mar 30 2011
areas affected...central and e central fl
concerning...tornado watch 79...
Valid 302041z - 302245z
the severe weather threat for tornado watch 79 continues.
Threat for damaging winds and hail -- and an isolated tornado or two
-- remain possible from central fl to the e central fl coast.
Latest radar shows a well-defined/bowing line of convection moving
ewd across central fl /i.e. The sern corner of the watch/ at near 50
kt. With a moderately unstable airmass /mixed-layer cape averaging
near 2000 j/kg/ and moderately strong/quasi-unidirectional flow
through the lower and middle troposphere...expect the
organized/severe mcs to continue ewd/offshore over the next couple
of hours. Attm...new ww is not anticipated farther s...as veered
low-level low across the peninsula combined with a swd-moving
outflow suggest that any storms will develop to the cool side of --
or quickly become undercut by -- outflow.
Does anyone know if a tornado did in fact touch down anywhere near WDW yesterday? A weatherman on one of the Detroit newscasts during the lunch hour news yesterday said he heard one had indeed been spotted on WDW property. Just curious! :shrug:
I don't know if it was near WDw, but I think they are going to investigate something. They showed this HUGE tree that was uprooted and fell on a house, but I didn't catch where it was - Winter Park maybe?
Oh man...I hope it clears up down there soon. We left WDW last Tuesday and were very blessed to have 10 solid days of nothing but sunshine and warm temperatures. Here's hoping for a quick change around and the same for all of you down there right now! :wave:
