Screamscape - Monorail Expansion Rumor

[jakeman]

Where did these numbers come from? There is absolutely no way that the monorail system transports 60% of WDW guests. 55 million people per year would be more than 150,000 people per day.

84% of statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[Thurp]

Some of the comments above have reminded me of the fact that most of the time I would happily walk TTC <-> MK if there was a safe way to do so.

 

[RunnerEd]

Something has to change! So many long time Disney visitors, such as myself, have moved onto their own mode of tranportation ex: renting their own cars....we have been renting a car for years now, it is simpler, faster, easier and not that expensive...I have rented a van every year for 200 dollars, this year we rented a regular car for less than $200...I have grown to HATE the busses, we find them slow, annoying and overcrowded. The monorail is no better! We had to wait for 3 monorails to come to the station just to get a standing room only car. Disney needs to stop expanding that ever annoying DVC and concentrate on other things. [\end rant]

Our home resort is AKL. We drive to every park except MK. It is so much quicker with so fewer headaches. The thing is, the monorails and the ferry boats are unique modes of transportation and, therefore, "magical" to a lot of guests; especially the rails which I still love riding at least one trip. The buses are just buses with plain stations/stops. If they would do something to plus the bus experience (videos, theme, lighting, etc.), they could actually make it a cool experience.

 

[Knothead]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the safety aspect of the Monorail vs Bus. Both have had their fair share of "incidents", but 1 death in 41 years of operation is an amazing safety record. As an Orlando native who is on the road all day for work, I regularly see how bad you guys drive when you get here and as long as the bus is mixed up with everybody else, a record like the Monorail's is nearly impossible to achieve. The numbers speak for themselves. They like to call us "valued guests", but apparently our value is less than the price of a monorail expansion.

 

[Kamikaze]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the safety aspect of the Monorail vs Bus. Both have had their fair share of "incidents", but 1 death in 41 years of operation is an amazing safety record. As an Orlando native who is on the road all day for work, I regularly see how bad you guys drive when you get here and as long as the bus is mixed up with everybody else, a record like the Monorail's is nearly impossible to achieve. The numbers speak for themselves. They like to call us "valued guests", but apparently our value is less than the price of a monorail expansion.

Its a lot more difficult for a monorail accident to happen when there is no traffic.

However, when something DOES happen up there (say, a breakdown), it causes much more damage to transport than a bus breaking down.

 

[Victor Kelly]

I say a people mover system with a TTC at Epcot. A interactive system either voice activated or picture activated via touchscreens similar to Horizons at the end. Tell it where you want to go and the vehicle takes you there.

 

[Gregoryp73]

[/B]


Where did these numbers come from? There is absolutely no way that the monorail system transports 60% of WDW guests. 55 million people per year would be more than 150,000 people per day.

Modern Marvels stated 50mil a few years back...
Disneybythenumbers states 55Million...

I would imagine that MM got their numbers directly from Disney.

These numbers are out there if you are interested in doing a little digging.
Remember, most busses mostly service the guests at hotels...monorails service the hotels and the TTC...so I would think that a majority of people who just come in for the day, ride the monorail into the MK in the morning and at park close.

 

[Gregoryp73]

84% of statistics are made up on the spot.

Yeah, but there still is that 16% of us who do their homework

 

[jt04]

I have to think that at some point a system that connects the TTC/WL/FW-FWDVC/4Seasons/PO/Riverside/OKW/SS/DTD becomes "profitable".

We are talking about a 'very densely populated corridor' whether it feels that way when you are actually present at any single location or not. Seems to me the situation may justify the cost of an efficent - mostly automated - people mover system of some sort.

 

[ChrisFL]

[/B]


Where did these numbers come from? There is absolutely no way that the monorail system transports 60% of WDW guests. 55 million people per year would be more than 150,000 people per day.

Ok, assume this is correct, let's break it down (I am NO math expert, just having fun with this)

Let's say 151,000 riders / day

There are 3 Monorail Lines:

TTC to Epcot
TTC Express to MK
TTC Resort Loop

________________________

TTC to Epcot can transport people 2 directions (to and from)

TTC Express to MK can do the same

TTC Resort Loop has 5 stops total

________________________

That means there are always 9 potential stops for people to embark/disembark each monorail.

If we are to guess there's equal amounts of riders on each one, that's almost 17,000 guests per day per monorail stop.

Assuming there's a 14 hour day for the monorails to operate, that's just under 1,200 people per monorail per hour, or broken down by car, 240 guests per hour in each monorail car.

Looking at that, I think it's quite possible those are real numbers.


________________________

Let's also assume that Disney is going to build a monorail system, if they charge everyone $2 a day to use any monorail, they could be making $110 million a year for monorail expansion.

 

[flynnibus]

If we are to guess there's equal amounts of riders on each one, that's almost 17,000 guests per day per monorail stop.

Assuming there's a 14 hour day for the monorails to operate, that's just under 1,200 people per monorail per hour, or broken down by car, 240 guests per hour in each monorail car.

Looking at that, I think it's quite possible those are real numbers.

That's where the numbers really show it to be a stretch. Your estimates assume solid usage all day long.. when it's really about peak usage.

A simplier way to look at it.. 151k people a day.. the parks only average in the 40k-range per day. Even if you could everyone twice for in and out.. and everyone took the monorail and not other transportation.. you still are only about halfway there. Seems a bit inflated to me.. but possible in some respect in a stretch I suppose.

But what really matters in this conversation is the comparison numbers.. and Gregoryp73's source for his numbers is junk (Disneybythenumb3rs) anyways so there isn't much point in going further with it.

 

[MichWolv]

Something has to change! So many long time Disney visitors, such as myself, have moved onto their own mode of tranportation ex: renting their own cars....we have been renting a car for years now, it is simpler, faster, easier and not that expensive...I have rented a van every year for 200 dollars, this year we rented a regular car for less than $200...I have grown to HATE the busses, we find them slow, annoying and overcrowded. The monorail is no better! We had to wait for 3 monorails to come to the station just to get a standing room only car. Disney needs to stop expanding that ever annoying DVC and concentrate on other things. [\end rant]

Interesting. I also rent a car every trip, and have always done so. But I don't think Disney needs to improve its transportation so that I don't want to rent a car. It's a preference.

I love flexibility. I like to be able to drive from Coronado Springs to the Wilderness Lodge without stopping at a park. I like to be able to go to Walgreen's if I forgot something, need some cough medicine, or would like to pay less than $3 for a coke. And I like to get myself to and from the airport on my schedule, not DME. Disney is one of the very few places where you actually CAN vacation without a car. That I don't choose to do so isn't Disney's fault, it's mine. While more monorails might make me happier (because monorail > bus, and I do take buses when I'm there), they won't make me give up my rental car!

You see one of my first trips to Disney we waited for hours getting out of park/boat/parking lot. I said after that point I will NEVER drive to the parks again (magic Kingdom at least) and I haven't. The buses are the way to go, sure there might be a wait sometimes but not usually too bad.

I have never spent more than 10 minutes getting from car to exit of parking lot, EXCEPT New Year's Eve, which was pretty bad a couple years ago. And I've never had to wait more than 15 minutes to get from the MK to the monorail or boat. I still prefer to take the bus to MK to eliminate the tram to monorail multi-tansport mode thing, and because of the elmination of the transfer, it is quicker, I think, to take the bus to MK instead of driving and parking.

OTOH, I have waited 30 minutes for a bus on multiiple occasions, and then had to deal with standing room only, multiple stops before mine, etc. Plus, going from resort to resort takes an hour by bus (transfer at park) frequently, while it takes 15-20 minutes by car. On balance, I drive my rental car more often than I take the buses when staying on site, but I make good use of both.

Some of the comments above have reminded me of the fact that most of the time I would happily walk TTC <-> MK if there was a safe way to do so.

True that. I looked forward to the completion of the "Walk Around the World" not because I wanted to look at everybody's little brick, but because I wanted to walk to the MK from somewhere other than the Contemporary. And they are so close -- you can get from TTC around to GF (well, construction may have interrupted that for now), and from MK the path goes past the monorail station down to the little canal that houses the EWP. Just build a little bridge there that can be manually opened for EWP, and fill in the path!

 

[WDW1974]

Can't say I've kept up with the entire thread ... but I just go back to one simple thing that I first got as kid (who didn't know he was gonna be a Disney nut for life) and that is MONORAILS ARE COOL. They were then ... they still are now ... or would be if they weren't ghetto.

Buses are ordinary and not a pleasure whether in the real world or Disney's.

They also are no long term solution to what is becoming a transportation nightmare.

A few decades ago, buses were a very tiny part of the transport puzzle ... now, they are the primary way of moving people ...

 

[mickey2008.1]

Maybe the answer is the NOVA bus? Why els would they be testing it.

 

[ChrisFL]

That's where the numbers really show it to be a stretch. Your estimates assume solid usage all day long.. when it's really about peak usage.

A simplier way to look at it.. 151k people a day.. the parks only average in the 40k-range per day. Even if you could everyone twice for in and out.. and everyone took the monorail and not other transportation.. you still are only about halfway there. Seems a bit inflated to me.. but possible in some respect in a stretch I suppose.

But what really matters in this conversation is the comparison numbers.. and Gregoryp73's source for his numbers is junk (Disneybythenumb3rs) anyways so there isn't much point in going further with it.

True, I was just saying the numbers might not be too extremely out there, but I don't think Disney would even get accurate numbers, its not like there's turnstyles before everyone boards.

 

[AtlantaPhotog]

Buses

I noticed no one mentioned the fact that these vehicles use cng which is much cleaner and cheaper currently than gasoline.

Hybrid buses using cng is the way to go. Having to use the ferry was very tedious during my march 2012 trip

 

[PhilharMagician]

Ok, assume this is correct, let's break it down (I am NO math expert, just having fun with this)

Let's say 151,000 riders / day

There are 3 Monorail Lines:

TTC to Epcot
TTC Express to MK
TTC Resort Loop

________________________

TTC to Epcot can transport people 2 directions (to and from)

TTC Express to MK can do the same

TTC Resort Loop has 5 stops total

________________________

That means there are always 9 potential stops for people to embark/disembark each monorail.

If we are to guess there's equal amounts of riders on each one, that's almost 17,000 guests per day per monorail stop.

Assuming there's a 14 hour day for the monorails to operate, that's just under 1,200 people per monorail per hour, or broken down by car, 240 guests per hour in each monorail car.

Looking at that, I think it's quite possible those are real numbers.


________________________

Let's also assume that Disney is going to build a monorail system, if they charge everyone $2 a day to use any monorail, they could be making $110 million a year for monorail expansion.

Look at it this way.

MK sees 17 million guests per year
Epcot sees 11 million guests per year

Total guests per year for the two serviced parks is 28 million.

If every guest would use the monorail going each direction then you would be @ 56 million.

I think the numbers are fluffed and not accurate. The monorail certainly does not transport every person into these parks. The ferryies on SSL hold twice as many passengers each as the monorail and they are also filled to capacity during the mornings and evenings and most of the guests staying in WDW resort hotels (approx 70,000 guests at any given time) are taking bus transportation. Not forgetting about the resorts on the line which hold about 8500 people (which is a average of 3 people per room @ 100%occupancy) which is minimal in the total scheme.

360 people (monorail capacity) X 20 hours of operation per day X 6 loads of passanger per hour X 12 trains X 365 days per year = 190 million which would be absolute maximum with all 12 trains operating all the time and full cars all the time. I can safely say that many times we have completely empty cars when I am riding and any time that we are on it when the monorails are full, they are not truely at full capacity since they are packed with strollers. Also you never see 12 trains operating and they rarely operate 20 hour days, so I skewed the numbers very high.

What is really puzzling is how 60% of people are moved around WDW are moved by monorail when it serves less then 20% of the resort. The monorail does not even move 60% of the people in an out of MK.

 

[Kamikaze]

You're forgetting one thing: They count a rider as a single one way trip. So if you take the monorail from TTC to MK, and then from MK to TTC at the end of the day, you're 2 riders.

 

[Gregoryp73]

That's where the numbers really show it to be a stretch. Your estimates assume solid usage all day long.. when it's really about peak usage.

A simplier way to look at it.. 151k people a day.. the parks only average in the 40k-range per day. Even if you could everyone twice for in and out.. and everyone took the monorail and not other transportation.. you still are only about halfway there. Seems a bit inflated to me.. but possible in some respect in a stretch I suppose.

But what really matters in this conversation is the comparison numbers.. and Gregoryp73's source for his numbers is junk (Disneybythenumb3rs) anyways so there isn't much point in going further with it.

Modern Marvels (history channel) was who said 50 million per day, which based on the show they put together was most likely rooted on interviews with Disney. Most sources are quoting them. I would think that those numbers would come from what i thought was turnstyles and CM clicking off on counters at the monorail stations.

Also no one is taking into consideration that any transfer from MK monorail/TTC to Epcot monorail is going to be counted as two rides...so if you are at a MK resort on the monorail and do a roundtrip to EPCOT then you get counted 4 times...where a direct bus route would be only 2. I don't agree with this way of counting, but this is how these numbers can seem inflated.

I would be careful of too much avid support for the buses around here, people may start to think you are a bus driver for disney...and by the standards on these boards, bus drivers testimony holds no weight whatsoever

 

[Gregoryp73]

I noticed no one mentioned the fact that these vehicles use cng which is much cleaner and cheaper currently than gasoline.

Hybrid buses using cng is the way to go. Having to use the ferry was very tedious during my march 2012 trip

I didn't realize this, I thought they were diesel...
Kudos to Disney for this!