Hurricane Irma

wdwjmp239

wdwjmp239

Well-Known Member
JohnD said:
Sigh...soon to be Maria

173152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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This is looking more like a "fish storm" and will have no impact on Florida. But....we all know how that went down with IRMA. *bangs head on desk repeatedly*
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
cosmicgirl said:
Didn't Irma look like that at one point or another, though? The further out you go, the less reliable any forecast is.
Weathernerds are showing both the GFS and the European model, with the Euro one showing tracks closer to FL, although it hasn't been updated to the latest run yet.
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The models never showed Irma turning north that quickly. The Euro model doesn't show Maria tracking all that close to Florida. The latest run has it turning north with the center more than 200 miles east of Florida. Maybe Florida will get some thunderstorms from the very outer bands but there won't be a tropical cyclone impacting the state from Maria unless all the models are way off. It's only 5 days out so they aren't usually quite that inaccurate.
 
21stamps

21stamps

Well-Known Member
Just went to book our KW reservations before canceling the Disney trip.

Sad to see this print, but also wonderful news on the lack of damage!!! I'm sure it will be reopen by our November dates. This is my go-to spot in KW for the past 2 decades, and a wonderful piece of history.

Irma can't take out a Flagler hotel. :)

I'm a little more sad than I thought I would be about canceling Disney though. :(


IMG_4649.jpg
 
cosmicgirl

cosmicgirl

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
The models never showed Irma turning north that quickly. The Euro model doesn't show Maria tracking all that close to Florida. The latest run has it turning north with the center more than 200 miles east of Florida. Maybe Florida will get some thunderstorms from the very outer bands but there won't be a tropical cyclone impacting the state from Maria unless all the models are way off. It's only 5 days out so they aren't usually quite that inaccurate.
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The images have been updated since I posted that, it is now further into the Atlantic than it was before. And Marco Island and Naples may disagree with that 5-day accuracy. I'm obviously not saying she'll hit FL, just that she's gonna take the course she wants to take.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
cosmicgirl said:
The images have been updated since I posted that, it is now further into the Atlantic than it was before. And Marco Island and Naples may disagree with that 5-day accuracy. I'm obviously not saying she'll hit FL, just that she's gonna take the course she wants to take.
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Marco Island and Naples were in the cone 5 days out. Rick Scott kept telling people at the press conferences not to keep focusing on Miami getting hit and that it could still end up striking the west coast.

In general, people focus way too much on the center line and then end up unprepared. It is called the "cone of uncertainty" for a reason. They are confident that the center will be somewhere in the cone but are uncertain exactly where.
 
Lucky

Lucky

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Marco Island and Naples were in the cone 5 days out. Rick Scott kept telling people at the press conferences not to keep focusing on Miami getting hit and that it could still end up striking the west coast.

In general, people focus way too much on the center line and then end up unprepared. It is called the "cone of uncertainty" for a reason. They are confident that the center will be somewhere in the cone but are uncertain exactly where.
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And only sort of confident...

"The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle."
 
cosmicgirl

cosmicgirl

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Marco Island and Naples were in the cone 5 days out. Rick Scott kept telling people at the press conferences not to keep focusing on Miami getting hit and that it could still end up striking the west coast.

In general, people focus way too much on the center line and then end up unprepared. It is called the "cone of uncertainty" for a reason. They are confident that the center will be somewhere in the cone but are uncertain exactly where.
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Exactly, so just because the forecasted tracks, meaning the most probable location of the eye, are not currently hitting FL doesn't mean that FL is out of the woods. We are too far out for the 5-day cone to even reach FL even if Maria were heading straight for FL. At this point (and even 5 days out) forecasts are feeding into other forecasts, greatly decreasing the accuracy of the final model. That's why the cone, covering whichever confidence interval the NHC chooses, is shaped like a cone to begin with.
 
Seanual757

Seanual757

Well-Known Member
Wednesday we will have a better idea if we need to take cover again. Looks how Irma changed from hitting Miami, to Mt. Myers, then up to Tampa, and crossed just to the west of Orlando.

Far early to tell but back in 2004 we were hit 3 times with one of the storms making a loop and coming back and hitting us.
 
jaklgreen

jaklgreen

Well-Known Member
marni1971 said:
About three minutes ago it was still drained.
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Good. We were there in June and the water was the nastiest shade of brown as is they were draining the toilets into it. It was so disgusting it took away from the ride. All I kept thinking about was, I hope I don't get splashed.
 
mimitchi33

mimitchi33

Well-Known Member
MerlinTheGoat said:
I spent the week in Chattanooga with cousins during the hurricane. I've returned now and things at my house look pretty great all things considering. A large old sycamore tree was uprooted in the front yard, but it fell in the grass and not on anything. The porch screen in the back had its panels blown out, but that's no big deal. The fence bordering our neighbor (which belongs to them) had some parts knocked over, the owner I believe will fix that. The house itself survived without a scratch.

The problem now is-
img_1396.jpg
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Good thing you're safe!
ntn_haqqer said:
This is looking more like a "fish storm" and will have no impact on Florida. But....we all know how that went down with IRMA. *bangs head on desk repeatedly*
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It happened with Sandy too. We weren't going to get it, and then....
 

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