So to start…. a few quick definitions/sources.
All the data is the observed data by Touring Plans on a 1-10 scale. Yes, this is observations of how long people waited in line, but I've got really good indications that its right on the money. It is also the only dataset I have to work with, so we press on. This is just distribution: where the people are, where they are going and how busy was it. Trying to reverse engine those numbers is an exercise in futility. I can tell you how busy the audience is, when that audience comes and which parks they're going to and the changes from year to year…. I just can't tell you what the specific attendance numbers are.
Looking at the data, I'm looking breaking it down into a few different metrics: The above average/ average and below break down into crowds defined by 6+/5- (referred to as the +/- split). The other key one is the off-peak/average/peak crowds and *I* define them as off-peak being 1-3, average as 4-7 and peak being 8+. Further segmentation I've broken down into crowds as a 1/2, 3, 4/5, 6/7, and 8+. Why do I lump 8-10 together? Because those crowds are unpleasant and no one is going to really enjoy those days - there crowded and have long lines. Everyone likes a 1/2 day, not so much with an 8+.
(Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only. Do not base financial decisions on these numbers as I am not a financial analyst)
Everyone set? Here we go.
Its busy. Seriously, it is busier than I have seen in recent memory. The resort overall is distributing very similar to 2013 but with more peak days.
We've had more peak days in Jan-June 2015 than in all of 2014. Let that sink in for a minute. We've had 44 peak days (24%) so far this year while In 2014 there were 43 (12%). For context's sake 2013 finished with 55 peak days (15%), 2015 should eclipse that without a problem.
The flip side to this business is that when it is dead, it is really dead. Off-peak crowds are running a little less than 2013 numbers at 28% of the year in 2015 with 2013 finishing at 32% of the year.
The average crowds are obviously down. 2014 had an average crowd 68% of the time, with 2013 having one 53% of the time and 2015 being right around 48% of the year.
As a whole the +/- split is in line with 2014, right around a 52% below /48% above split, both way above the 59% below /41% above of 2013. The biggest difference is those crowds that were 4-7, Jan-June 2014 saw those average crowds 79% of the time while 2015 is right around 48%, For context, 2013 saw that average segment at 53% of the time.
Off-peak days grew as comparison with 2014 but are right in line with 2013. 2015 & 2013 both have an off-peak day right around 28% of the time while 2014 drew then 12% of the time, comparing Jan-June.
The biggest shock? 24% of the time, its a peak crowd. 2014 had that happening only 8% of Jan-June while 2013 peak crowds ran around 18%. Peak Crowds are happening more often.
You can thank April-June as the peak catalyst here. The +/- split is ridiculous in this quarter, pulling an above average crowd 53 times or 58% of the quarter (38/53). Compare that to 2014 when we ran a dead split of 46/45 (49.5% above) and 2013's 51/40 (44% above).
The most peak days were in June (15) followed by May (8). Busiest peak days? Monday and Tuesday (9 and 8, respectively).
Off peak? January (15) followed by February (13). Thursday had the most off-peak (13) followed by Wednesday (12).
Any way you look at it, the resort is growing in Peak days and above average days. Its busier.
MAGIC KINGDOM
Mk always exceeds every other park and tends to set the trend for the resort as a whole. That being said…. its really really busy.
MK is pulling peak days 52 (29%) of the time, equalling the 52 in all of 2014 (14%) and a total of 62 (17%) in 2013. Those will be exceeded easily - possibly within two weeks.
MK is also pulling more off-peak crowds compared to Jan-June 2013 & 14. MK is pulling 21% off-peak crowds while in the same time period, 2014 they pulled 7% and 2013 right around 14% of the year. Looking at April-June alone, they pulled a peak crowd 40% of the quarter, compared with 6% in 2014 and 20% in 2013.
Essentially, its feat or famine. Looking at the below/above average splits, MK has a fewer number of above average days as 2014 but is slightly above 2013. Breaking it down, you've got an above average crowd right around 53% (85/96) where in 2014 it was 65% of the time (63/118) but in 2013, they pulled 49% above average (92/89)
Put simply, when you go to MK this year, you've come close to running into a peak crowd one every 3 days, with the most recent quarter doing the heavy lifting. Granted, the timing of Easter helped boost the quarter but even looking at the 6 months shows its damn busy. The crowds came heavy for Presidents day Weekend, Spring Break and Memorial Day, but they stayed after Memorial Day and finally slowed down for a few days last weekend.
MK has the most peak days, most average days and least amount of off-peak days of the four parks. I don't see this trend breaking.
Epcot!
Epcot kind of surprised me, also pulling 24% peak crowds (44) vs 49 in ALL of 2014 and 54 in ALL of 2013. Those should be easily surpassed. Breaking down the Jan-June segment, Epcot pulled a peak crowd 10% of the first half of 2014 (18) and 18% of the same time in 2013 (33).
The biggest change that stands out beyond the peak days at Epcot is the below/above average split. Epcot pulled close to a 50/50 split (90/91 above) for the first six months whereas in 2014 it was 58%/42% (105/76) and 2013 drew an ugly 63%/37% (114/67).
Off-peak? Worse than 2014, in line with 2013. Off-peak is right around 34% for 2015 & 2013 while 2014 showed 20%.
Overall, Epcot pulled a very strong April-June, pulling above average and peak crowds. Jan-March was similar to 2013 peak numbers wise (19 vs 18 in 2013) but had more average crowds. The +/- split trended better than in years past in J-M but completely showed something new in A-J, going from a 63% below / 37% above (57/34) in A-J 2013 to a 45%/55% split (41/50) in 2015.
It really brings a smile to my face to see Epcot finish the first half of the year with more crowds above average than average and below.
Disney's Soon-to-Be-Star-Wars Studios (Too Soon?)
The Studios are right in line with the rest of the resort, pulling a peak crowd 26% of the time (47). This is up ridiculously over 2014 which pulled a peak crowd 6% of the time Jan-June of 2014 (11 Times, or the same number of days SWW pulled a peak crowd in 2015) and is up over 2013's 20% (36).
Off peak? Still a dumpster fire. 70 off-peak days (39%) in 2015 vs 72 in 2014 (40%) and 71 in 2013 (39%).
The crowd shifted upwards in the +/- split. 2015 shows 58%/42% (105/76) whereas Jan-June 2014 pulled 77% average and below crowds (140/41) and similar to 2013 with a 60%/40% (108/73) split for the first six months. Yes, you're reading that correctly - 2015 has more peak days for the Studios in the first 6 months than they had above average days for the same time period in 2014.
Again, its the same refrain. A strong April-June is whats driving this, as well as SWW. SWW 2015 drew 11 Peak/4 Avg. (For comparisons sake, SWW 2013 drew 5 peak, 7 average crowds. SWW 2014 drew 1 Peak, 10 Average and 4 Off-Peak.)
Jan-March at the studios were nearly identical in the +/- split 68%/32% (61/29) in 2015 vs 70%/30% (63/27) in 2014 yet was behind the 63%/37% (57/33) of 2013.
Short Version? Studios is right around 2013, rebounding from a disastrous first six months of 2014. Put simply, in April-June of 2014, Studios pulled 14 above average crowds. Thats a mere 15% of the quarter. Compare that with 2015 which is pulled 47 above average crowds (52%) for the quarter. For context's sake. 2013 drew an above average crowd 40 (44%) of the quarter. (Yes, 2014 was THAT BAD)
Studios bottomed out in Jan-June 2014. Frozen helped stop the bleeding but its not enough as Jan-March numbers from 2014 & 2015 being nearly identical shows. They had ONE good quarter this year. Peak numbers are in line with the resort as a whole, off-peak are a giant outlier. The +/- split is another.
If you're a Quarter to Quarter guy or love comparing Quarter to last year, You'll love April-June 2015 as compared to 2014…
... and its misleading because J-M 2015 is right in line with the past two years. A-J 2015 looks ridiculous because the entire resort had a fantastic quarter and DHS fell in line with the other parks.
Animal Kingdom.
DAK is holding its own, pulling peak crowds 21% of the time (37) which is in line with 2013 which pulled them 19% of the time (35) and a bit above 2014's 15% (28).
Off peak crowds are above that of 2014, running 29% (52) in 2015 vs 19% (34) in 2014 better than the 33% (60) in 2013.
The +/- split is disappoint as compared to 2014. 2015 is right around 50/50 (90/91) while 2014 drew 55% above average crowds (82/99) yet is way above 2013 that drew 40% above average crowds (109/72)
The killer was Jan-March as they drew a 56/34 split (38% above average) in 2015 vs a 47/43 (48% above average) in 2014. Still better than 2013's 60/30 (33% above average). April-June is nearly identical on the split, 35/56 (62% above) in 2014 and 34/57 (62.6% above) in 2015. The only difference is that in April-June 2015, the crowd shifted up with 26 peak days in 2015 vs 12 in 2014.
Good quarter but running under the peak days of the resort overall by about 3.5%.
Overall Conclusions?
Clearly everything is up. (Even DHS) Shaping up to be similar to 2013 but with more peak days, meaning when its busy, its super busy. A very strong April-June drove attendance. Will it hold? We'll see how the summer plays out. Crowd is behaving different than 2014, fewer average days but in line with 2013 on the off-peak.
All the parks are in line with one another on the +/- split except the studios, which is a giant outlier. (Down by two weeks or so) DAK is the outlier on peak days (down by about a week). And DHS has the dubious distinction of having the most off-peak days - by a lot - pulling an off-peak crowd 39% of the time in 2015.
Epcot & DAK are in line exactly on the +/- split.
The resort overall finished 2013 with 55 peak days (15%) and 2014 with 43 (12%). 2015 is at 43 (so far, 24%). 2014 July-Dec pulled 28 peak days, 2013 pulled 23. Next six weeks should determine that and how the year finishes up. Can they finish up with over 20% peak days? It is possible, as 2013 had 23 peak from July-Dec and 2014 had 28. You'd need 72-73 days of peak crowds total for the year to do that and with 44 now, it is completely within the realm of possibility. Maintaining 24% peak means they would finish right around 87 days peak, which just doesn't seem sustainable.
(Ed Note - Having a peak crowd 1 out of every 4 or 5 days on average is ridiculous. That is downright unpleasant for everyone involved, cast and guests alike.)
I think we're going to continue to see more of the same - Feat or Famine. The busy days most likely will continue to peak and the slow days will be mercifully slow. And if I'm booking a vacation, I'm looking at that week after Labor day. (If I'm cast, I'm really really looking forward to September)
All the data is the observed data by Touring Plans on a 1-10 scale. Yes, this is observations of how long people waited in line, but I've got really good indications that its right on the money. It is also the only dataset I have to work with, so we press on. This is just distribution: where the people are, where they are going and how busy was it. Trying to reverse engine those numbers is an exercise in futility. I can tell you how busy the audience is, when that audience comes and which parks they're going to and the changes from year to year…. I just can't tell you what the specific attendance numbers are.
Looking at the data, I'm looking breaking it down into a few different metrics: The above average/ average and below break down into crowds defined by 6+/5- (referred to as the +/- split). The other key one is the off-peak/average/peak crowds and *I* define them as off-peak being 1-3, average as 4-7 and peak being 8+. Further segmentation I've broken down into crowds as a 1/2, 3, 4/5, 6/7, and 8+. Why do I lump 8-10 together? Because those crowds are unpleasant and no one is going to really enjoy those days - there crowded and have long lines. Everyone likes a 1/2 day, not so much with an 8+.
(Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only. Do not base financial decisions on these numbers as I am not a financial analyst)
Everyone set? Here we go.
Its busy. Seriously, it is busier than I have seen in recent memory. The resort overall is distributing very similar to 2013 but with more peak days.
We've had more peak days in Jan-June 2015 than in all of 2014. Let that sink in for a minute. We've had 44 peak days (24%) so far this year while In 2014 there were 43 (12%). For context's sake 2013 finished with 55 peak days (15%), 2015 should eclipse that without a problem.
The flip side to this business is that when it is dead, it is really dead. Off-peak crowds are running a little less than 2013 numbers at 28% of the year in 2015 with 2013 finishing at 32% of the year.
The average crowds are obviously down. 2014 had an average crowd 68% of the time, with 2013 having one 53% of the time and 2015 being right around 48% of the year.
As a whole the +/- split is in line with 2014, right around a 52% below /48% above split, both way above the 59% below /41% above of 2013. The biggest difference is those crowds that were 4-7, Jan-June 2014 saw those average crowds 79% of the time while 2015 is right around 48%, For context, 2013 saw that average segment at 53% of the time.
Off-peak days grew as comparison with 2014 but are right in line with 2013. 2015 & 2013 both have an off-peak day right around 28% of the time while 2014 drew then 12% of the time, comparing Jan-June.
The biggest shock? 24% of the time, its a peak crowd. 2014 had that happening only 8% of Jan-June while 2013 peak crowds ran around 18%. Peak Crowds are happening more often.
You can thank April-June as the peak catalyst here. The +/- split is ridiculous in this quarter, pulling an above average crowd 53 times or 58% of the quarter (38/53). Compare that to 2014 when we ran a dead split of 46/45 (49.5% above) and 2013's 51/40 (44% above).
The most peak days were in June (15) followed by May (8). Busiest peak days? Monday and Tuesday (9 and 8, respectively).
Off peak? January (15) followed by February (13). Thursday had the most off-peak (13) followed by Wednesday (12).
Any way you look at it, the resort is growing in Peak days and above average days. Its busier.
MAGIC KINGDOM
Mk always exceeds every other park and tends to set the trend for the resort as a whole. That being said…. its really really busy.
MK is pulling peak days 52 (29%) of the time, equalling the 52 in all of 2014 (14%) and a total of 62 (17%) in 2013. Those will be exceeded easily - possibly within two weeks.
MK is also pulling more off-peak crowds compared to Jan-June 2013 & 14. MK is pulling 21% off-peak crowds while in the same time period, 2014 they pulled 7% and 2013 right around 14% of the year. Looking at April-June alone, they pulled a peak crowd 40% of the quarter, compared with 6% in 2014 and 20% in 2013.
Essentially, its feat or famine. Looking at the below/above average splits, MK has a fewer number of above average days as 2014 but is slightly above 2013. Breaking it down, you've got an above average crowd right around 53% (85/96) where in 2014 it was 65% of the time (63/118) but in 2013, they pulled 49% above average (92/89)
Put simply, when you go to MK this year, you've come close to running into a peak crowd one every 3 days, with the most recent quarter doing the heavy lifting. Granted, the timing of Easter helped boost the quarter but even looking at the 6 months shows its damn busy. The crowds came heavy for Presidents day Weekend, Spring Break and Memorial Day, but they stayed after Memorial Day and finally slowed down for a few days last weekend.
MK has the most peak days, most average days and least amount of off-peak days of the four parks. I don't see this trend breaking.
Epcot!
Epcot kind of surprised me, also pulling 24% peak crowds (44) vs 49 in ALL of 2014 and 54 in ALL of 2013. Those should be easily surpassed. Breaking down the Jan-June segment, Epcot pulled a peak crowd 10% of the first half of 2014 (18) and 18% of the same time in 2013 (33).
The biggest change that stands out beyond the peak days at Epcot is the below/above average split. Epcot pulled close to a 50/50 split (90/91 above) for the first six months whereas in 2014 it was 58%/42% (105/76) and 2013 drew an ugly 63%/37% (114/67).
Off-peak? Worse than 2014, in line with 2013. Off-peak is right around 34% for 2015 & 2013 while 2014 showed 20%.
Overall, Epcot pulled a very strong April-June, pulling above average and peak crowds. Jan-March was similar to 2013 peak numbers wise (19 vs 18 in 2013) but had more average crowds. The +/- split trended better than in years past in J-M but completely showed something new in A-J, going from a 63% below / 37% above (57/34) in A-J 2013 to a 45%/55% split (41/50) in 2015.
It really brings a smile to my face to see Epcot finish the first half of the year with more crowds above average than average and below.
Disney's Soon-to-Be-Star-Wars Studios (Too Soon?)
The Studios are right in line with the rest of the resort, pulling a peak crowd 26% of the time (47). This is up ridiculously over 2014 which pulled a peak crowd 6% of the time Jan-June of 2014 (11 Times, or the same number of days SWW pulled a peak crowd in 2015) and is up over 2013's 20% (36).
Off peak? Still a dumpster fire. 70 off-peak days (39%) in 2015 vs 72 in 2014 (40%) and 71 in 2013 (39%).
The crowd shifted upwards in the +/- split. 2015 shows 58%/42% (105/76) whereas Jan-June 2014 pulled 77% average and below crowds (140/41) and similar to 2013 with a 60%/40% (108/73) split for the first six months. Yes, you're reading that correctly - 2015 has more peak days for the Studios in the first 6 months than they had above average days for the same time period in 2014.
Again, its the same refrain. A strong April-June is whats driving this, as well as SWW. SWW 2015 drew 11 Peak/4 Avg. (For comparisons sake, SWW 2013 drew 5 peak, 7 average crowds. SWW 2014 drew 1 Peak, 10 Average and 4 Off-Peak.)
Jan-March at the studios were nearly identical in the +/- split 68%/32% (61/29) in 2015 vs 70%/30% (63/27) in 2014 yet was behind the 63%/37% (57/33) of 2013.
Short Version? Studios is right around 2013, rebounding from a disastrous first six months of 2014. Put simply, in April-June of 2014, Studios pulled 14 above average crowds. Thats a mere 15% of the quarter. Compare that with 2015 which is pulled 47 above average crowds (52%) for the quarter. For context's sake. 2013 drew an above average crowd 40 (44%) of the quarter. (Yes, 2014 was THAT BAD)
Studios bottomed out in Jan-June 2014. Frozen helped stop the bleeding but its not enough as Jan-March numbers from 2014 & 2015 being nearly identical shows. They had ONE good quarter this year. Peak numbers are in line with the resort as a whole, off-peak are a giant outlier. The +/- split is another.
If you're a Quarter to Quarter guy or love comparing Quarter to last year, You'll love April-June 2015 as compared to 2014…
... and its misleading because J-M 2015 is right in line with the past two years. A-J 2015 looks ridiculous because the entire resort had a fantastic quarter and DHS fell in line with the other parks.
Animal Kingdom.
DAK is holding its own, pulling peak crowds 21% of the time (37) which is in line with 2013 which pulled them 19% of the time (35) and a bit above 2014's 15% (28).
Off peak crowds are above that of 2014, running 29% (52) in 2015 vs 19% (34) in 2014 better than the 33% (60) in 2013.
The +/- split is disappoint as compared to 2014. 2015 is right around 50/50 (90/91) while 2014 drew 55% above average crowds (82/99) yet is way above 2013 that drew 40% above average crowds (109/72)
The killer was Jan-March as they drew a 56/34 split (38% above average) in 2015 vs a 47/43 (48% above average) in 2014. Still better than 2013's 60/30 (33% above average). April-June is nearly identical on the split, 35/56 (62% above) in 2014 and 34/57 (62.6% above) in 2015. The only difference is that in April-June 2015, the crowd shifted up with 26 peak days in 2015 vs 12 in 2014.
Good quarter but running under the peak days of the resort overall by about 3.5%.
Overall Conclusions?
Clearly everything is up. (Even DHS) Shaping up to be similar to 2013 but with more peak days, meaning when its busy, its super busy. A very strong April-June drove attendance. Will it hold? We'll see how the summer plays out. Crowd is behaving different than 2014, fewer average days but in line with 2013 on the off-peak.
All the parks are in line with one another on the +/- split except the studios, which is a giant outlier. (Down by two weeks or so) DAK is the outlier on peak days (down by about a week). And DHS has the dubious distinction of having the most off-peak days - by a lot - pulling an off-peak crowd 39% of the time in 2015.
Epcot & DAK are in line exactly on the +/- split.
The resort overall finished 2013 with 55 peak days (15%) and 2014 with 43 (12%). 2015 is at 43 (so far, 24%). 2014 July-Dec pulled 28 peak days, 2013 pulled 23. Next six weeks should determine that and how the year finishes up. Can they finish up with over 20% peak days? It is possible, as 2013 had 23 peak from July-Dec and 2014 had 28. You'd need 72-73 days of peak crowds total for the year to do that and with 44 now, it is completely within the realm of possibility. Maintaining 24% peak means they would finish right around 87 days peak, which just doesn't seem sustainable.
(Ed Note - Having a peak crowd 1 out of every 4 or 5 days on average is ridiculous. That is downright unpleasant for everyone involved, cast and guests alike.)
I think we're going to continue to see more of the same - Feat or Famine. The busy days most likely will continue to peak and the slow days will be mercifully slow. And if I'm booking a vacation, I'm looking at that week after Labor day. (If I'm cast, I'm really really looking forward to September)
