FastPass+’s Possible Impact on Standby Lines

[ParentsOf4]

FastPass+ (FP+) seems to be changing Fastpass (FP) in ways that will make Standby lines longer. To understand this, it is necessary to understand a little bit about queuing and the current FP system.

A queue, more commonly called a line in the U.S., is basically a bunch of people standing around waiting for something. We experience queues every day, whether it is waiting to be served at a restaurant or waiting for a traffic light to change. Essentially, it occurs anytime we wait for something we want now.

Lines form when demand exceeds supply. In WDW’s case, “supply” corresponds to each attraction’s capacity, typically measured in terms of how many people can experience the attraction in an hour. For an attraction such as Peter Pan's Flight, its capacity (i.e. supply) might be 1200 guests/hour. A line for Peter Pan forms if more than 1200 guests want to ride it in an hour. The people wanting to ride Peter Pan correspond to its “demand”. The “price” of an attraction can be measured in terms of how long people are willing to wait to experience the attraction. As the line increases, the percentage of people willing to pay the price (i.e. wait in line longer) decreases. Nearly everyone might be willing to wait 5 minutes to ride Peter Pan but people will walk away if the wait time is 2 hours.

When introduced in 1999, FP changed the dynamics of the normal line by creating a second, preferred line. With a FP ticket in hand, you could skip what Disney began calling the “Standby” line and experience an attraction much quicker. However, FP did not increase capacity; it only changed how the wait time was distributed. People with FP tickets waited less. People in Standby lines waited more. Consider the following simplistic example.

Let’s assume, on average, 100 people wait 10 minutes for an attraction. The total wait time for everyone is 1000 minutes.

What a preferred line does is reduce the wait time for some people by making other people wait longer. In this simplified example, if a preferred line reduces the wait time for 50 to 5 minutes, then it increases the wait time for the remaining 50 to 15 minutes. The total wait time doesn’t change, only the wait time of the individuals in the two lines. For people in the FP line, their waits become shorter. For people in the Standby line, their waits become longer.

FP+ does not increase capacities of attractions. The capacities remain fixed. Therefore, like FP, FP+ does not shorten total wait time. It only changes how long individuals wait in the two separate lines.

The latest information suggests Disney intends to provide each guest with 3 or 4 FP+ experiences. Since the Magic Kingdom’s (MK) average attendance is over 46,000 per day and significantly more during busier periods, MK has to have over 200,000 FP+ experiences for many days. Disney realizes its current supply of MK FP experiences will not meet this demand. Therefore, Disney is increasing the supply of FP+ by adding FP+ to experiences that previously did not have FP.

As occurred when FP was created, adding preferred lines to attractions without increasing capacity means people in Standby lines wait longer. As a result, the first change we can expect from FP+ is that Standby lines will grow longer for attractions that are being added to FP+.

A second change in Standby lines should occur because of how Disney intends to distribute FP+. Previously, Disney did not distribute FP with return times for the first 40-to-60 minutes after park opening. As a result, Standby lines remained relatively short and it was possible to ride several attractions immediately after park opening.

So far, preliminary testing suggests Disney intends to change this policy with FP+. Rather than being able to schedule FP+ experiences to begin (for example) one hour after park opening, it appears Disney intends to allow guests to schedule FP+ experiences immediately after park opening. FP+ lines will form more quickly than in the past and the Standby lines will grow longer earlier as a result.

Putting these together, it seems FP+ could have the following impact on Standby lines:

1. Standby lines for attractions without FP where FP+ is added will grow longer.
2. Standby lines for attractions with FP will grow longer earlier in the morning.

Once FP+ is fully operational, it will be interesting if Disney makes further changes. For example, if Disney distributes more FP+ for existing FP attractions (effectively shifting ride capacity from Standby to FP+ lines), then those Standby lines will become longer. Conversely, if Disney distributes fewer FP+ (making the remaining FP+ more “valuable”), then those Standby lines will become shorter.

FP+ is sure to change how you experience WDW but perhaps not in ways you are going to like.

 

[Lee]

Thank you for doing that.
It needed to be explained and I don't have the patince or willpower to do it as well as you did.

 

[MrNonacho]

Nice post, but it doesn't touch on the fact that many of the people using FP would be in the standby line instead if it were not available. People seem to forget that lines were physically much longer in the days before FP, though they moved much faster.

 

[ScoutN]

Before it is claimed "how does it increase wait if people would be on it anyways?" Simple! With FP+ offering more attractions than before some... Actually several will be forced to attend attractions one typically might not experience. Will it overly reduce demand of more popular attractions? Doubtful.

 

[flynnibus]

Unfortunately its not that simple...

1) because rides do not exist on an island alone
2) because demand is a function that includes the existing wait time

Demand for an attraction is not constant.. people can walk up, and opt to walk away when the conditions don't meet their fancy. Hence, demand is influenced by wait times and a perception of availability.

The latter point is what FP+ really stands to alter.. perception of availability.

Not everyone lines up for fireworks every night. Why? Because many know they can just watch the fireworks another night. The lure of 'can do it another time' severely cuts into someone's tolerance for waiting/burden.

If I know I can get a FP+... I KNOW I can ride at a time with no wait. If that's the case, why would I bother waiting in a standby line unless I really want to ride right now?

The net result can be even more complex... those willing to wait in standby could go WAY down.. resulting in shorter times.. but this could also be offset by the FP/SB ratio being completely altered. So lines could be near similar, or even longer.

It is extremely difficult to make anything but a guess when we don't really know Disney's strategies or what they will optimize for.

It's my belief they will optimize for 'a FP+ should always be available..' because I don't see how they could stomach people missing out on FP+ entirely.. and they need to show value in replacing FP. Making it so 'FP never ran out' and 'being able to see and get FP without a runner' are both big juicy targets Disney can hang their hat on pitching why FP+ is better. They are going to need some ammo on why FP goes away.. Just speculating, but I'd wager this is the way they head.

 

[DallasDis]

I understand why your saying. But I think it will depend upon how man FP+s are distributed and their plan to allocate them.

For example - right now say Disney distributes 50 FP for BTMRR per window. Every time 50 FPs are distributed the window moves back 5 minutes. I. E. from between 10:00 and 11:00 to between 10:05 and 11:05. Now say thy Disney reallocates 25 of those to the FP+ system. So there would be 25 FP and 25 FP+ for each one hour window. There would still be 50 FP/FP+s per window. This would result in no change in the number of people who are using the FP line per window and thus would not change the standby wait times.

However if Disney is to add an additional 25 FP+s to each window and leave the same 50 FPs per window then there would now be 75 people with FO/FP+ in each window. This would greatly affect the standby wait times.

It all comes down to if these are reallocations of FP from one system to another or another layer of FP+s that will be added to the current system.

 

[flynnibus]

It all comes down to if these are reallocations of FP from one system to another or another layer of FP+s that will be added to the current system.

What better way to get people to move to FP+ quickly.. then choke FP availability almost entirely? I see them switching that distribution pretty quickly once the system is rolled out.

"What.. no FP availability? There is availability if you used FP+..."

Will move 'em in droves.

 

[TimeTrip]

The latest information suggests Disney intends to provide each guest with 3 or 4 FP+ experiences. Since the Magic Kingdom’s (MK) average attendance is over 46,000 per day and significantly more during busier periods, MK has to have 200,000 FP+ experiences for many days. Disney realizes its current supply of MK FP experiences will not meet this demand. Therefore, Disney is increasing the supply of FP+ by adding FP+ to experiences that previously did not have FP.

There's an assumption there that every guest will actually be taking advantage of FP+ to it's max. Without a guess as to how many of the people attending will actually take advantage of FP+, it's going to be impossible to make any conclusions about stand-by lines. What if the same percentage of people that will book FP+ is similar to the current percentage of people that take advantage of FP as it exists now?

 

[Hakunamatata]

What better way to get people to move to FP+ quickly.. then choke FP availability almost entirely? I see them switching that distribution pretty quickly once the system is rolled out.

"What.. no FP availability? There is availability if you used FP+..."

Will move 'em in droves.

They have already started those tactics with entry lines into the park.

 

[Skyway]

Standby lines for attractions without FP will grow longer.

Standby lines for attractions with FP will grow longer earlier.
[

I agree standby lines for "new" FP attractions will get SLIGHTLY longer.

But I also believe that under FP+, standby lines for existing E-Tickets will get much SHORTER.

I base my theory on the assumption that the average guests currently gets 3 FPs today (I'm very experienced in gaming the current system and can usually get 5 or 6 a day. Novices may only get 2, 1, or none at all. That would make the current average about 3...the same as Disney plans to distribute under FP+)

So if Disney is distributing roughly the same number of FPs as now, but then doubling or tripling the number of places to use them, overall standby lines should go down. (Conversely, for your theory to work that ALL standby lines would grow, Disney would need to double or triple the average number of FP's each guest receives. But they're not. They're only giving 3 to each guest.)

The biggest difference between the old and new systems is Disney's ability to limit your choice of FPs. Under the current system, guests would choose to use their FPs at the E-Tickets with long lines (like Space Mtn or Soarin), driving up those standby waits.

Under the new system, Disney has the ability to distribute fewer FPs for Space Mountain (shortening standby) while distributing more FPs for something like Haunted Mansion (lengthening standby)

That will suck for HM fans and be great for SM fans.

But you also have to assume that most guests will want to do both attractions.

So in theory, a current 60 minute wait for Space Mountain could drop to 40 minutes, and a current 10 minute wait for Haunted Mansion could grow to 30 minutes.

A guest who visits both attractions is still waiting a combined total of 70 minutes for both attractions. Disney has just shifted the lines around with smoke and mirrors (while making the visitor feel like they get a special perk by being able to breeze through the line on a 3rd attraction like Pooh or Dumbo using a FP)

As you point out, the capacity of each attraction remains the same with our without FP.

Under the old FP, people who knew how to game the system had an advantage over those who didn't.

At least for now, it appears that under the new system everyone will have the same advantage since Disney is giving everyone the same number of FPs (assuming everyone claims their 3 FPs) and limiting their choices. That would create moderate lines at all attractions. Just as it would be with no FP at all.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Before it is claimed "how does it increase wait if people would be on it anyways?" Simple! With FP+ offering more attractions than before some... Actually several will be forced to attend attractions one typically might not experience. Will it overly reduce demand of more popular attractions? Doubtful.

Disney has yet to figure out a way to get people to fill the queues for COP, HOP, and Tiki.

Sadly, those attractions, one way or another, are all part of Walt's legacy. I wish people appreciated them more.

 

[Tom Morrow]

If any of you have ever had a Fastpass for Expedition Everest (the highest capacity and fastest loading thrill ride at WDW), and that Fastpass queue was physically all the way to the entrance, how long did it take? 5 or 10 minutes?

Well, if everyone went through one single line, that line would move EVEN FASTER than that! You would literally never stop moving forward.

Remember that any time there is high demand for an attraction with Fastpass, up to about 80% of the people experiencing that attraction entered through the Fastpass line.

Remember how when Fastpass was first introduced, all the high demand rides' Fastpasses were gone by early afternoon at the latest? Today, with the exception of TSMM, they are still being distributed well into the evening and often right up until the last two hours the park is open. The reason is they are giving out a tremendous amount more of Fastpass tickets per hour window per attraction than the system originally intended. The Expedition Everest Fastpass queue, for example, is physically very short - it wasn't intended for the Fastpass line to ever reach the entrance!

It will be interesting to see how the numbers are adjusted to accommodate paper traditional Fastpasses, Fastpass+, rider switches, GAC cards (please see the GAC card changes thread), and other passes to hopefully not inflate the standby line more than it already is.

 

[sbkline]

I agree standby lines for "new" FP attractions will get SLIGHTLY longer.

But I also believe that under FP+, standby lines for existing E-Tickets will get much SHORTER.

I base my theory on the assumption that the average guests currently gets 3 FPs today (I'm very experienced in gaming the current system and can usually get 5 or 6 a day. Novices may only get 2, 1, or none at all. That would make the current average about 3...the same as Disney plans to distribute under FP+)

So if Disney is distributing roughly the same number of FPs as now, but then doubling or tripling the number of places to use them, overall standby lines should go down. (Conversely, for your theory to work that ALL standby lines would grow, Disney would need to double or triple the average number of FP's each guest receives. But they're not. They're only giving 3 to each guest.)

The biggest difference between the old and new systems is Disney's ability to limit your choice of FPs. Under the current system, guests would choose to use their FPs at the E-Tickets with long lines (like Space Mtn or Soarin), driving up those standby waits.

Under the new system, Disney has the ability to distribute fewer FPs for Space Mountain (shortening standby) while distributing more FPs for something like Haunted Mansion (lengthening standby)

That will suck for HM fans and be great for SM fans.

But you also have to assume that most guests will want to do both attractions.

So in theory, a current 60 minute wait for Space Mountain could drop to 40 minutes, and a current 10 minute wait for Haunted Mansion could grow to 30 minutes.

A guest who visits both attractions is still waiting a combined total of 70 minutes for both attractions. Disney has just shifted the lines around with smoke and mirrors (while making the visitor feel like they get a special perk by being able to breeze through the line on a 3rd attraction like Pooh or Dumbo using a FP)

As you point out, the capacity of each attraction remains the same with our without FP.

Under the old FP, people who knew how to game the system had an advantage over those who didn't.

At least for now, it appears that under the new system everyone will have the same advantage since Disney is giving everyone the same number of FPs (assuming everyone claims their 3 FPs) and limiting their choices. That would create moderate lines at all attractions. Just as it would be with no FP at all.

Wait a minute...what's this about Disney giving us 3 fastpasses?

I still have yet to read a detailed news article explaining in detail this new system. I don't know if it's because there just hasn't been such an article (because the details just haven't all been released) or if it's just because I missed it on the day that it was released and I just haven't succeeded yet in googling it yet. So back to my question, what is this about 3 fastpasses? Are you saying that for each day in the park, I only get 3 fastpasses, period? If so, do I get 3 random fastpasses no matter what, with the option of picking my specific rides if I am enough to get online 2 months out? In other words, if I don't pick my fastpasses, do I still get three random generated faspasses? Where do I go to get them?

 

[John]

Sorry, both of you know how much I respect you. We can guess all we want but until its rolled out no one knows. My guess is ...your both are going to be right to a degree. I think where there might be a difference in everyones percieved ideas is that guest are going to beable to reserve their FP's ahead of time. Yes only a certian of FP's will be allocated...but this will IMO mean less chances to get a E ticket FP as it has limited ADR's At the heart of the system is how they are going to allocate the number of FP's and when.

If they hold back a number of Fp's till park opening....there goes the concept that we wont have to be at the park at opening. If we want that coveted FP the only way to get it is being at the Park at rope drop. I think they should hold back a certian amount and release them thru out the day.....X amount per hour. Then you realistically have a chance to score a FP for something like TSMM. You have every hour to try and score. Although I am, not sure how the system could handle such demand.

Adding FP to rides that never had them or needing them is a bad sign. It just dont make sense.....why would you need a FP if there was never a line to begin with? Who is going to choose to get a FP for these rides? Why would adding a FP make this ride more desirable? Because Disney will force you to take one of these in lew of a popular ride? As far as perception goes....people still wait two hours for Sorin....how is FP+ going to change that?
Give out less FP+ whats the point in having them? You guys know more then I do....for every point someone makes thee is a legitimate counterpoint. Which makes me wonder....WHY? Why connect FP to the whole NG program You could have special reservations for special seating for fireworks, M&G without tying in FP.

Forget who it was who said it but I see it as......A bad solution to a non exsisting problem. I cant see how FP+ is going solve any queue problems.

 

[flynnibus]

Wait a minute...what's this about Disney giving us 3 fastpasses?

I still have yet to read a detailed news article explaining in detail this new system. I don't know if it's because there just hasn't been such an article (because the details just haven't all been released) or if it's just because I missed it on the day that it was released and I just haven't succeeded yet in googling it yet. So back to my question, what is this about 3 fastpasses? Are you saying that for each day in the park, I only get 3 fastpasses, period? If so, do I get 3 random fastpasses no matter what, with the option of picking my specific rides if I am enough to get online 2 months out? In other words, if I don't pick my fastpasses, do I still get three random generated faspasses? Where do I go to get them?

This is based on the earlier tests Disney has been running.

The system in testing was basically..
- rides were broken into existing groupings
- then you would pick one ride/experience from each group
- you then would get a schedule for those selected rides

Since, Disney has shown more of the functionality where guests will be able to pick from available timeslots for a specific FP+ reservation, not just take a 'suggested' time schedule. Additionally, you can reschedule an existing FP+ reservation, or switch to another ride if you missed your reservation or needed to change for some other reason.

Additionally, the terms of service Disney posted has language that sets FP+ reservations to be 'one park per day'. And in the tests, people were picking 3 or 4 choices for their FP+ reservations. That's how you get to this point.

Basically Disney has set it up so you have a certain number of FP+ 'credits' you can use per day. But you can only use them within one park per day, and you can schedule your credits to FP+ reservations in advance and day of. In the day of, you can continue to move your credits to different reservations if you need to, but all your 'credits' expire at the end of the day - they don't carry over. I use the term 'credit' as my own language to describe your allowance of uses per day.. Disney isn't using that language.

Disney has not explicitly said how many 'credits' each guest will get, if there will be variation between guests, or what. That point is based on their earlier tests and speculation on how Disney will monetize the system.

 

[TalkingHead]

I admit I haven't kept up on every detail about FP+. So two questions:

1) Is FP+ initially only available to guests staying on site?
2) If so, does anyone know approximately what percentage of day-guests are staying at Disney resorts?

 

[John]

This is based on the earlier tests Disney has been running.

The system in testing was basically..
- rides were broken into existing groupings
- then you would pick one ride/experience from each group
- you then would get a schedule for those selected rides

Since, Disney has shown more of the functionality where guests will be able to pick from available timeslots for a specific FP+ reservation, not just take a 'suggested' time schedule. Additionally, you can reschedule an existing FP+ reservation, or switch to another ride if you missed your reservation or needed to change for some other reason.

Additionally, the terms of service Disney posted has language that sets FP+ reservations to be 'one park per day'. And in the tests, people were picking 3 or 4 choices for their FP+ reservations. That's how you get to this point.

Basically Disney has set it up so you have a certain number of FP+ 'credits' you can use per day. But you can only use them within one park per day, and you can schedule your credits to FP+ reservations in advance and day of. In the day of, you can continue to move your credits to different reservations if you need to, but all your 'credits' expire at the end of the day - they don't carry over. I use the term 'credit' as my own language to describe your allowance of uses per day.. Disney isn't using that language.

Disney has not explicitly said how many 'credits' each guest will get, if there will be variation between guests, or what. That point is based on their earlier tests and speculation on how Disney will monetize the system.

The only problem I have with this is that the test were done on a limited number of guest. How well does that translate into over a 100,000 guest per day across four parks?

 

[ParentsOf4]

It's my belief they will optimize for 'a FP+ should always be available..' because I don't see how they could stomach people missing out on FP+ entirely.. and they need to show value in replacing FP. Making it so 'FP never ran out' and 'being able to see and get FP without a runner' are both big juicy targets Disney can hang their hat on pitching why FP+ is better. They are going to need some ammo on why FP goes away.. Just speculating, but I'd wager this is the way they head.

Most WDW guests will see a real and immediate value to FP+. Today a disproportionate number of FP are distributed to those who understand the system well. With some guests receiving 5 or more FP per day, too many people are receiving no FP.

FP+ evens the playing field, allowing inexperienced WDW guests access to at least 3 FP+ per day. These guests will be able to book their FP+ experience comfortably from home rather than participating in the rope drop dash for popular attractions. To these guests, FP+ should be popular.

We are all experienced FP users and game the system well. We sometimes forget that the overwhelming majority of WDW guests don't know WDW as well as we do.

 

[SirOinksALot]

FP is a queue that you get in when issued your ticket and exit when you get on the ride. It isn't a five minute wait.

Worst OP ever?

 

[John]

Most WDW guests will see a real and immediate value to FP+. Today a disproportionate number of FP are being distributed to those who understand the system well. With some guests receiving 5 or more FP per day, too many people are receiving no FP.

FP+ evens the playing field, allowing inexperienced WDW guests access to at least 3 FP+ per day. These guests will be able to book their FP+ experience comfortably from home rather than participating in the rope drop dash for popular attractions. To these guests, FP+ should be popular.

We are all experienced FP users and game the system well. We sometimes forget that the overwhelming majority of WDW guests don't know WDW as well as we do.

Will it though? These same folks probably dont realize what the most popular rides are...will they realize they need to book their reservations the morning of their "open window"? How will they feel when they realize they have been shut out of the most popular rides when they get to WDW. Will they beable to navigate the system once in the parks....IMO there will be some of us who will find ways to game the system no matter what it is.

It may not matter at all to these guest. They might think scoreing a FP to COP might be the greatest thing since slice bread......maybe your right