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Box Office 2017

Discussion in 'Animation, Movies, TV' started by Flippin'Flounder, Jan 1, 2017.

  1. Flippin'Flounder

    Flippin'Flounder Well-Known Member

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    After Disney's dominance in 2016, how do you think 2017 will go? It looks like they can win the year again, with lots of big blockbusters coming down the pipeline, most notably Star Wars VIII.
     
  2. ElreTigo

    ElreTigo Well-Known Member

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    I know it sounds crazy, but I have a feeling Beauty & The Beast may top Ep. 8 at the box office this year.

    I also suspect Spider-Man Homecoming will fall way short of box office expectations, as many people are simply burned-out on the Spidey reboots by now.

    Time will tell...
     
    Flippin'Flounder likes this.
  3. Flippin'Flounder

    Flippin'Flounder Well-Known Member Original Poster

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    Homecoming isn't being distributed by Disney anyway. It's a Sony movie set in the MCU, so it won't have an effect on Disney's box office numbers.
     
  4. brifraz

    brifraz Well-Known Member

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    Let's see...Beauty and the Beast, new Cars, new Pirates, new Guardians of the Galaxy, and new Thor (with Hulk), plus the Star Wars movie and Pixar's Coco. Yeah, they've got a pretty darn good shot.
     
  5. ElreTigo

    ElreTigo Well-Known Member

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    For Disney's box office numbers, I'd predict 2017 will go something like:

    1. Beauty & The Beast
    2. Star Wars Ep. 8
    3. GotG
    4. Cars
    5. Pixar's Coco
    6. POTC
    7. Thor
     
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  6. brifraz

    brifraz Well-Known Member

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    Not sure how well Cars 3 is going to do. I think Cars 2, while it made money, was a bit disappointing for many fans. I think Guardians will be right up there with BaTB and SW8. I hope that Coco does really well, but it has much less early buzz than most Pixars. Thor is a big question mark - the last one was not as well received as the first, but the early work on the new one is VERY positive and the Marvel CU is certainly the hottest of properties right now. Pirates is an even bigger question mark (IMHO) since the 4th was definitely not a big winner, but I think the longer wait time for the new one will help it (and based on some cheers during the teaser trailer, it is gaining momentum).

    Regardless, they will be able to print their own money in the film side of the company.
     
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  7. Flippin'Flounder

    Flippin'Flounder Well-Known Member Original Poster

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    Also Born in China and (According to Box Office Mojo, though at this point I don't really see it happening) Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale (2017) [Live Action].

    My predictions:

    1. Star Wars Ep. VIII
    2. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
    3. Beauty and the Beast
    4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
    5. Cars 3
    6. Thor: Ragnarok
    7. Coco
    8. Born in China
     
  8. BrianLo

    BrianLo Well-Known Member

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    It's a funny year for them having wrapped up the Amblin/Dreamworks distribution deal, their own slate hasn't particularly picked up the slack. It is such a lean year for Disney that obviously it's impossible for them to overtake 2016, but also a little apples-oranges with how they might perform compared to all the other major studios with 50-100% more releases this coming year. Disney took 2016 with the leanest release schedule... but they've further dropped from 12 -> 8!

    The Fandango survey is a pretty good gauge of anticipation. It rings pretty accurate to me. I think we'd all rank Episode 8, GoTG2 and B&TB as Disney's big three fore-runners. Thor is 12, PoTC5 13 and Cars 3 15. Coco doesn't make the list at all, but there has been no media push and obviously anticipation is going to be higher for known sequels or remakes.

    I personally don't worry about Thor too much, I expect it will do better than Dark World having the team up bump going for it. Pirates I worry about in light of Alice's abysmal drop-off. It's probably the least predictable movie of everything they are releasing next year. Is it an Independence Day 2 or a Jurassic World? Probably neither extreme, but that's what I mean that I honestly have no friggen clue.

    Cars 3, as an animated flick with Pixar branding in the summer, doesn't have the potential to bomb like Alice. I think it'll settle around or just under 200 domestic almost no matter what. Unless for some reason the critics go crazy for it.

    Coco is a safe 200 mil as well, with potential to go Zootopia/Inside Out if the story has more meat to it. The animation slate between all the major studios in 2017 is very, very weak compared to what happened this past year. There is no other Illumination, Dreamworks, Pixar or WDAS release in the second half of the year, other studios don't have the same marketing pushes. Even if Coco is mediocre, the market will be starved for it.


    1. SW Episode 8 (700+ domestic, ~500+ calendar year 2017)
    2. GoTG Vol 2 (~400 domestic)
    3. Beauty and the Beast (350-400 domestic)
    4. Thor Ragnarok (250-350 domestic)
    5. Coco (200-300 domestic)
    6. Cars 3 (165-220 domestic)
    7. Rogue One Holdover (~150-190 domestic)
    8.
    9. Born in China (15-20 domestic... double in China)

    *PoTC 5 - Anywhere from spot 4 through 8. (150-350 domestic)

    Final Yearly take: 2-2.5 billion

    Considering 2 billion has only been breached 4 times (Dis 2017/2016, Uni 2016 and WB 2009), I'd say they'd be quite pleased *only* making 2 billion on the back of 8 films.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2017
  9. doctornick

    doctornick Well-Known Member

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    Crazy how few films Disney releases compared to other major studios. I know they are into the tent poles and all the synergy of marketable brands, but I'd love to see them make some smaller films -- maybe actually use that Touchstone label more often.
     
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  10. Flippin'Flounder

    Flippin'Flounder Well-Known Member Original Poster

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    So the pre-Beauty and the Beast number is $165,669,569, with $120 million from Rogue One, and the rest coming from Moana, Dr. Starnge and Queen of Katwe.
     

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