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2012 Themed Entertainment Association park attendance figures show increase over 2011

Discussion in 'WDW Parks News, Rumors and Current Events' started by wdwmagic, May 29, 2013.

  1. wdwmagic

    wdwmagic Administrator Moderator

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    PhotoDave219 likes this.
  2. 71jason

    71jason Well-Known Member

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    Anyone who was at Food & Wine or Halloween Horror Nights last Fall can't be surprised by this.
     
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  3. ParentsOf4

    ParentsOf4 Well-Known Member

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    In general, attendance seems to be up everywhere, probably driven by a recovering economy. This will make it difficult to assess the impact of any change or lack thereof unless the numbers for a specific park deviate significantly from the noted 3.6% average.

    One thing's for sure; it will be fun to interpret and debate the TEA report once it's released!

    My prediction is "vacation destination" resorts such as WDW should exceed that number. Tighter economic times mean vacationers stay closer to home. Better economic times mean folks are willing to spend more on that "big" vacation.
     
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  4. GLaDOS

    GLaDOS Well-Known Member

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    My guesses are MK/EPCOT are up 3-5%. DHS and DAK are relatively flat, and big gains again for Uni, but not as big as the past 2 years.
     
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  5. Animaniac93-98

    Animaniac93-98 Well-Known Member

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    Carsland/DCA even more so.
     
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  6. 71jason

    71jason Well-Known Member

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    There's quite a bit of "oh Don Piano" in this, I think--looking for meaning in random noise. These are never official numbers--Sea World took umbridge with them a couple years ago, tho not enough to release hard data--and things like the economy can have just as much effect as a new E-ticket. But I'm sure we'll all argue about them anyway.
     
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  7. ParentsOf4

    ParentsOf4 Well-Known Member

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    With the economy recovering (or at least people getting tired of spending like it's a recession:)) woe to any park that does not show an increase in 2012. Beyond that, central Florida should benefit greatly from the increased South American attendance while DLR should come in with some staggering numbers, even for a partial year.

    With no one releasing real numbers anymore (I miss the days when Disney did), it's always fun to debate the TEA numbers and what they "really" mean!
     
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  8. twebber55

    twebber55 Well-Known Member

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    DCA's numbers will be interesting to see as well as the numbers for IOA
     
  9. wdwfan4ver

    wdwfan4ver Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the percentage mean much in towards of increase of attendance at WDW theme parks as a whole based on my guess. I think the percentage is more caused by DCA, big gains for IOA and a gain at Sea World for Turtle Trek for Sea World. I also do think the percentage is also could caused by the economy like others said. I mentioned Sea World because Turtle Trek was packed in the later part of August on a Friday afternoon last year.

    From what I gathered from Miceage last summer, DCA had big crowd gains. I am guessing DCA ended 2012 with attendance of 8 to 10 million people. I don't think DCA did pass AK and DHS in 2012, but I think they probably would pass the two parks in attendance when this year ends.

    The 24 hour promotion last year did help MK attendance I think that opening of Storybook Circusland might have helped also. I think the impact of FLE was limited though since there was a soft opening from October 12th to December 6th.

    I didn't see any attendance differences at Epcot, DHS, or AK when I was there in late August/Early September and I think was very little change for the year as a result.
     
  10. wdwfan4ver

    wdwfan4ver Well-Known Member

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    I am guessing a couple factors the world wide increase of 5.2 percent of theme park attendance after including the 3.6 percentage increase for North America.

    The Earthquake in Japan in 2011 with the explosion hurt the attendance of theme parks that year. I know Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo Disney sea was closed from March 12th to April 14th in 2011. I am sure all theme parks in Japan also were closed for a time in 2011.

    Since the parks in Japan was open all year in 2012, that meant a good sized gain of attendance. I also know Hong Kong Disneyland had an increase in park attendance in 2012.
     
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  11. RSoxNo1

    RSoxNo1 Well-Known Member

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    This is going to be largely dominated by DCA. I suspect the Disney World parks would be relatively similar to the 2011 #s.
     
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  12. NoChesterHester

    NoChesterHester Well-Known Member

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    It was far more crowded this year when we went. It wasn't our imagination either, the wait times were significantly longer. Our group all commented that attendance seemed to be up.
     
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  13. PhotoDave219

    PhotoDave219 Well-Known Member

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    I'm going with MK & Ep up 5%, Dak/DHS flat.

    Going with IOA up 7% and USO up 5%.
     
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  14. ParentsOf4

    ParentsOf4 Well-Known Member

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    For me, estimating WDW’s attendance is a matter of reading through 4 quarterly financial conference calls and guessing what they mean.

    Quarter 1 (January 2012 – March 2012)

    During this quarter’s conference call (May 8, 2012), CEO Bob Iger stated:

    Later in the call, CFO Jay Rasulo provided some more information:

    And even later:
    So DLR seemed to be driving growth but WDW also contributed, especially since “international attendance at Walt Disney World” was strong while “domestic visitors … were relatively flat”.

    Even if DLR attendance was up a lot, WDW makes up a much larger percentage of domestic park attendance. With "Disneyland setting a new Q2 attendance record", I’ll guess up 5% at WDW.

    WDW Quarter 1 attendance guestimate: up 5%

    Quarter 2 (April 2012 – June 2012)

    During this quarter’s conference call (August 7, 2012), Iger started with:

    Rasulo followed with:
    DCA attendance is expanding rapidly but total domestic attendance was up only 1%. That doesn’t bode well for DL’s or WDW’s numbers. I’ll guess down 1% at WDW.

    WDW Quarter 2 attendance guestimate: down 1%

    Quarter 3 (July 2012 – Sept 2012)

    During this quarter’s conference call (Nov 8, 2012), Rasulo said:

    It's uncertain what "up substantially" or "down modestly" means. Let's play with some numbers to guess:
    - Domestic attendance is up 3%
    - Total DLR 2011 attendance was 22.5M according to Themed Entertainment Association (TEA)
    - Total WDW 2011 attendance was 47.4M according to TEA

    People have suggested DCA could break the 10M mark this year, up from 6.34M in 2011. DL might be down a bit (1M?) since more people are visiting DCA. Combined together, I'd guess DLR's total attendance might be 26M. This is just a guess but I'd call that "up substantially". Total attendance is up 3% (22.5+47.4 X 1.03 = 72M) so WDW's attendance would be about 46M (72 - 26) or down about 3%. I'd call that "down modestly".

    WDW Quarter 3 attendance guestimate: down 3%

    Quarter 4 (Oct 2012 – Dec 2012)

    During this quarter’s conference call (Feb 5, 2013), Rasulo said:

    What’s “up a hair”? My wild guess is 1%.

    WDW Quarter 4 attendance guestimate: up 1%

    What does it mean?

    Together, the 4 quarterly numbers average to less than 1% annual growth at WDW.

    Obviously, it’s more complicated than that because not all quarters are equal. Still, for this exercise, I think this gross approximation is sufficient.

    I have no idea how TEA collects its data so it could come up with a vastly different number. In the past, they have been criticized by some theme parks for underestimating attendance but, unfortunately for us, never enough for those theme parks to step up and release actual numbers.

    Everyone’s complaining that WDW feels more crowded. Does TEA base its numbers on something more substantial than a feeling? Will TEA’s number be in line with the guidance provided during the quarterly conference calls?

    I’m looking forward to seeing TEA's published numbers and reading the debate!
     
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  15. lazyboy97o

    lazyboy97o Well-Known Member

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    I think most of the number crunching is done by AECOM, a huge conglomerate that does a lot of economic feasibility studies for all sort of projects, included entertainment attractions.
     
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  16. The Empress Lilly

    The Empress Lilly Well-Known Member

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    Go on then. Let us hear your predicitions.

    MK 17,350
    DL 16,000
    EP 10,950
    DCA 10,500 :eek:
    DAK 9,850
    DHS 9,800
    IoA 7,900
    USF 6,200
    SEA 5,350
     
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  17. GrumpyFan

    GrumpyFan Well-Known Member

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    Here's mine:

    MK 17.2 (million) ↑ - Slight bump higher from last year
    DL 15.5 ↓ - Predicting DCA will steal some numbers from DL
    EP 10.8 ↑ - Slight bump lower from last year
    DCA 10.8 ↑↑↑ - Almost double the 6.3 million from last year
    DAK 9.8 ↑ - Slight bump higher
    DHS 9.8 ↑ - Agreed with yours, due to Star Tours re-do
    IoA 7.6 ↓ - Just slightly off from last year
    USF 6.0 ↓ - Again, just slightly down or the same as last year
    SEA 5.0 ↓ - Down about 200k due to Disney and Universal

    Due to opening later in the year, I'm not sure if the New Fantasyland will have a big impact to last year's numbers for MK.
     
  18. stlphil

    stlphil Well-Known Member

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    Increased wait times (even significantly so) don't necessarily mean increased attendance. Just saying...
     
  19. RSoxNo1

    RSoxNo1 Well-Known Member

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    That's way too agressive. Disney hasn't seen those numbers since they built attractions.

    2004-2005
    Magic Kingdom 5.921%
    Epcot 5.319%
    Hollywood Studios 3.614%
    Animal Kingdom 5.128%
    Universal Studios -8.955%
    Islands of Adventure -8.571%
    Sea World 0.000%
    Disneyland 8.209%
    Disney's California Adventure 3.571%

    2005-2006
    Magic Kingdom 3.354%
    Epcot 5.657%
    Hollywood Studios 5.814%
    Animal Kingdom 8.659%
    Universal Studios -1.639%
    Islands of Adventure -7.986%
    Sea World 2.500%
    Disneyland 1.586%
    Disney's California Adventure 2.586%

    2006-2007
    Magic Kingdom 2.524%
    Epcot 4.493%
    Hollywood Studios 4.505%
    Animal Kingdom 6.510%
    Universal Studios 3.333%
    Islands of Adventure 2.453%
    Sea World 1.045%
    Disneyland 0.950%
    Disney's California Adventure -4.538%

    2007-2008
    Magic Kingdom 0.018%
    Epcot 0.046%
    Hollywood Studios 1.030%
    Animal Kingdom 0.527%
    Universal Studios 0.500%
    Islands of Adventure -2.449%
    Sea World 2.207%
    Disneyland -1.002%
    Disney's California Adventure -2.007%

    2008-2009
    Magic Kingdom 0.996%
    Epcot 0.503%
    Hollywood Studios 0.958%
    Animal Kingdom 0.524%
    Universal Studios -11.250%
    Islands of Adventure -12.649%
    Sea World -2.159%
    Disneyland 8.009%
    Disney's California Adventure 8.696%

    2009-2010
    Magic Kingdom -1.515%
    Epcot -1.501%
    Hollywood Studios -1.000%
    Animal Kingdom 1.001%
    Universal Studios 7.143%
    Islands of Adventure 28.571%
    Sea World -12.069%
    Disneyland 0.503%
    Disney's California Adventure 3.769%

    2010-2011
    Magic Kingdom 1.002%
    Epcot 0.000%
    Hollywood Studios 1.000%
    Animal Kingdom 1.001%
    Universal Studios 2.008%
    Islands of Adventure 28.996%
    Sea World 2.000%
    Disneyland 1.001%
    Disney's California Adventure 1.004%
     
  20. maxairmike

    maxairmike Well-Known Member

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    How long ago did Disney put out their actual attendance numbers? Wouldn't it be fairly trivial (in a relative way, I don't have the desire to do this) if they've only stopped doing so in the last 10 years or maybe slightly more to just go through and starting with the yearly performance report after they stopped giving the numbers, and do a general resort-wide calculation of attendance based on the percentages given? I would think inferences about individual parks could be much more reasonably made by comparing that number with the totals from TEA reports.
     

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