Ernesto

It remains to be seen as to if he'll stay together or not. There's some shear that could mess him up. We'll have to wait and see.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.




THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

It's still early, but I get a funny feeling from this one. The track they have it on this close to the anniversary of Katrina...well, who knows? Hopefully nothing comes of it.

Edit: I just saw that blurb THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. Oy...

Yeah... we can hope the track forecast changes. It's still really early in the game and we all know how many times track forecasts change.

I heard a weatherhead from AccuWeather say that there is a ridge that it must pass through before it hits the gulf. It could shear it into non-existence, but if it gets through, it will hit the gulf and strengthen.

SpongeScott said:

I heard a weatherhead from AccuWeather say that there is a ridge that it must pass through before it hits the gulf. It could shear it into non-existence, but if it gets through, it will hit the gulf and strengthen.

Click to expand...

Yeah, it's fighting shear, but we'll know for sure within the next 24 hrs of so (from what I've been reading). They seem to think that it's going to pull through. That even if it gets knocked down a bit, that it will get back up. I'm cheering the sheer on though.
Here's the latest...

85 kt at 120 hours south of New Orleans.

...ERNESTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
800 Am Ast Sat Aug 26 2006

...ernesto Strengthening Over The Central Caribbean Sea...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The South Coast Of
Hispaniola From The Haiti-dominican Republic Border Westward To The
Southwestern Tip Of Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Jamaica. Warnings Will
Likely Be Required For Jamaica Later Today.

A Hurricane Watch Will Likely Be Issued For The Cayman Islands Later
This Morning. Interests In The Cayman Islands And Western Cuba
Should Monitor The Progress Of Ernesto.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 800 Am Ast...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Ernesto Was
Located Near Latitude 15.0 North...longitude 70.6 West Or About 245
Miles...395 Km...south-southwest Of Santo Domingo In The Dominican
Republic And About 455 Miles...730 Km...east-southeast Of Kingston
Jamaica.

Ernesto Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 15 Mph...24 Km/hr
...and This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.
On This Track...the Core Of Ernesto Will Be Passing South Of The
Southern Coast Of Hispaniola Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 50 Mph...80
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast
During The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km
From The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is 997 Mb...29.50 Inches.

Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Expected In Association With
Ernesto Across Portions Of Puerto Rico...the Virgin Islands...the
Dominican Republic...haiti...and Jamaica With Possible Isolated
Amounts Of 8 Inches.

Repeating The 800 Am Ast Position...15.0 N...70.6 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 15 Mph. maximum Sustained Winds...50
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...997 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 1100 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Beven

I'm getting that sickening D'asia Vu feeling

that is a wicked, not-good turn on Wed - Thur.

Irrawaddy Erik said:

I'm getting that sickening D'asia Vu feeling

Click to expand...

You and me both..............

crossing fingers & toes for all of you, and adding a few extra prayers....

Debbie said:

You and me both..............

Click to expand...

Let's just pray that it turns (to the west!) and remains a minimal storm.

Go, shear!

excuse me while I go dump all my refrigerator ice into the gulf. :lookaroun

The guy on The Weather Channel said it was continuing to strengthen despite the shear, and that they expect the trend to continue throughout the day.

He said the track is pretty certain right now, at least as far as the storm hitting the Gulf, but the intensity is the big question mark.

They have models that have it reaching the Gulf and doing everything from weakening to a wave to strengthening to a Cat. 4. The official forecast has it becoming a Cat. 3 in the Gulf.

Oh jeez. Hang in there... that doesn't look good

Oh God, I hope it loses strength.

I cant do this again....
*Prays Prays Prays*

The latest update on TWC site says that SW winds are preventing the storm from strengthening this afternoon the way it was earlier. Winds and pressure are holding steady at 50 mph and 997 mb.

They expect those opposing winds to move out of the way in the coming days, though, and think the storm could encounter conditions more favorable to development as it approaches the Gulf.

It's really to early to be sure of the track (remember these things chage quickly). Right now, just keep updated, be prepared, and be sure to give yourself enough time to get futher inland if need be.

Oy! This last update has a track that is starting to get a little too close for comfort. Woody, batten down the hatches. :wave: