Posted by James Spann on June 9, 2006, 6:01 am
in Weather Discussions ( ABC 33/40 Weather Blog)
The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Don't forget the map discussion video is also available on iTunes, so you can watch it anytime. anywhere on your iPod.
Sure looks like we are watching the birth of tropical storm Alberto in the northwest Caribbean this morning. I think we need to give a big "atta-boy" to the Canadian model, which called this thing early in the week, long before other models had a clue.
WHERE AND HOW STRONG? Since the system is in the infant stage, it is hard to answer all of the questions you have. But, the best model blend has this thing headed for the eastern Florida panhandle, or the big bend region of Florida (generally between Apalachicola and Cedar Key) on Monday as a tropical storm. The GFS, the Canadian, and the GFDL are on board with this scenario.
However, there are outliers. The NAM takes this thing toward the Texas coast (the 06Z run), and the BAM runs also move it toward the western to central Gulf.
For now we will roll with the best blend solution, and plan on a landfall (probably a tropical storm) somewhere near or east of Apalachicola Monday. Unfortunately, this will leave most of Alabama high and dry. The system would cross back into the Atlantic, and move northeast parallel to the eastern seaboard as an upper trough re-builds over the eastern U.S. The best rain will come over the Florida peninsula in this scenario (NOT the panhandle)
in Weather Discussions ( ABC 33/40 Weather Blog)
The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Don't forget the map discussion video is also available on iTunes, so you can watch it anytime. anywhere on your iPod.
Sure looks like we are watching the birth of tropical storm Alberto in the northwest Caribbean this morning. I think we need to give a big "atta-boy" to the Canadian model, which called this thing early in the week, long before other models had a clue.
WHERE AND HOW STRONG? Since the system is in the infant stage, it is hard to answer all of the questions you have. But, the best model blend has this thing headed for the eastern Florida panhandle, or the big bend region of Florida (generally between Apalachicola and Cedar Key) on Monday as a tropical storm. The GFS, the Canadian, and the GFDL are on board with this scenario.
However, there are outliers. The NAM takes this thing toward the Texas coast (the 06Z run), and the BAM runs also move it toward the western to central Gulf.
For now we will roll with the best blend solution, and plan on a landfall (probably a tropical storm) somewhere near or east of Apalachicola Monday. Unfortunately, this will leave most of Alabama high and dry. The system would cross back into the Atlantic, and move northeast parallel to the eastern seaboard as an upper trough re-builds over the eastern U.S. The best rain will come over the Florida peninsula in this scenario (NOT the panhandle)
