Nice! I knew how you felt about FP, but I didn't know about your background in Ops. I'm an Industrial Engineering major so this subject really intrigues me. I've actually wondered if you do a simulation of attractions with the FP system and without.
Probably not to the extent that the guys over at touringplans do this, but what I've done in the past, and may do in the future is largely based on estimates. The amount of Fastpasses distributed is not public knowledge.
There are estimates that would put the amount of Fastpasses distributed at 6% of an attractions hourly capacity every 5 minutes. That's very substantial. I'm not sure if that 6% number is correct, but it's an estimate I've heard. That means that in one hour 72% of an attraction's hourly capacity can be represented by Fastpass. This would also explain the 4:1 metric for Fastpass to Standby guests allowed in at the merge point.
In THEORY, the Fastpass system is functional and would not extend the standby line to longer than it would be if Fastpass didn't exist. IN THEORY. However, there are many factors that go into it so that frequently, this is not the case.
This "THEORY" would also imply that the demand from an attraction is constant regardless of the wait time. There is no way this is true.
And in addition to getting slammed, you've got people with those special, non-attraction specific, "use any time" Fastpasses, and people with special passes from guest relations. Apparently all you need to do to get one is have a hangnail, because frequently when I enter a Fastpass line these days, more families have those than actual Fastpasses.
All of this means that frequently, there are way more people entering the Fastpass line at a time than the system ever intended. Thus, it is my opinion that the entire system needs a massive overhaul - something that can be better regulated.
This is the proverbial slippery slope. Disney isn't going to question someone's disability, but a blanket policy requiring a doctor's note could work. The problem is denying a disabled person a Guest assistance pass would be a P.R. Nightmare.
I know that these passes are abused. I've seen people taking turns in a wheel chair to bypass the lines. Fortunately, this number isn't too substantial.
I say this, and when I go with my family we typically get a Guest Assistance pass for my autistic brother. The pass accommodates my brother and up to 5 guests. On recent trips, my family had 11 people in our traveling party, so what I did is took everyone's Fastpass and basically canvassed the park ahead of my family (who at 11 strong is relatively slow moving as well). A day at the Magic Kingdom would start with most of my family watching my nephew get a hair cut at the Harmony Barbershop while I went up to Jungle Cruise to get 5 Fastpasses (because we would all go on that), 3 Fastpasses for Big Thunder Mountain and 2 Fastpasses for Thunder Mountain. I would then meet up with my family by Pirates of the Caribbean and we would use a combination of the Fastpasses and Guest Assistance pass to navigate the park.
I'm sure some people would frown on this, however the reality is - given the pace my family operates we would probably accomplish the same amount of things without the guest assistance pass than we would with the pass. The difference is, I can run ahead and get passes as needed for multiple attractions than just one at a time.
There are some people that feel that a Guest Assistance card should only accommodate the disabled person and one or two guests. This is a reasonable complaint and may very well be the way to curb this issue if it becomes a growing problem. In which case, my family will simply adapt.
Also, Fastpass does nothing but INCREASE stress for EVERYONE. Yeah, you got to wait only 20 minutes for Toy Story Mania instead of 180 minutes (and the line is only that long because of Fastpass in the first place). But you had to make sure you got there at park open just to get it, and its a crowded day - unless you want to wait 90 minutes (would not be 90 minutes if Fastpass didn't exist), you won't get to ride Rock 'n' Rollercoaster without a Fastpass either. Only now that you have the Toy Story Mania Fastpass, you can't get another one until 2 pm. Now its 2 pm, and Rock 'n' Rollercoaster is out of Fastpasses.
The wait for Toy Story would still be substantial without Fastpass. I assume not everyone that uses Fastpass for Toy Story would be willing to wait in the Standby line, but at the same time, the demand for the attraction is so great that other people would presumably take their place.
To determine how long the wait time would be without Fastpass, the easiest way is to determine what the average wait time is for anyone that enters the attraction now (both Fastpass and Standby). The following are all assumptions and do not actually reflect reality:
Average Standby wait on given day: 120 minutes
Average Fastpass wait on given day: 15 minutes
Percentage of people riding the attraction through Fastpass instead of Standby queues: 60%
Under this scenario, guests are waiting an average of 57 minutes.
Or theres the fact that it causes mass confusion with people. I have actually witnessed this when standing around by Pirates of the Caribbean:
Guest: Does this ride have Fastpass?
CM: No we don't, sorry.
Guest: Ugh, it figures! *begins to walk away*
CM: But our wait time is only 5 minutes!
Guest: Forget it! *keeps walking away*
I mean yeah, its that guest's own fault, but it happens a LOT more than park-savvy guests like us would think.
Never underestimate the fact that people do little to no preparation for a Disney vacation. Whenever I get wind that someone is going on a Disney trip, I reach out to them for advice. Unfortunately, when a Disney fan starts presenting information about touring, or other advice the trip can become overwhelming for whoever is receiving that information.
It's a fine line to cross - but what I hate is when people come back and tell me how miserable their vacation was because they got stuck in long lines. That's why I typically start every conversation with someone that hasn't visited before with an explanation of the Fastpass system. Understanding how to use this system is often the difference between a good vacation and a bad vacation.
