Monorail Ridership Question

[Twirlnhurl]

I have always liked how knowledgeable many of the participants in this forum are, so I was wondering if I could get some help understanding some stuff about the WDW monorail.

On the http://www.wdwmagic.com/transportation/monorail.htm page, it says "On a typical day, more than 150,000 guests use monorail transportation." Is this for a typical day or a peak day? Obviously, it says this is a typical day, but I can't imagine this being the ridership on an average day.

It is my understanding that Magic Kingdom can accommodate something like 75,000 guests on a peak day, so if 100% of guests take the monorail to the Magic Kingdom (instead of riding the ferry or buses), that can get 150,000 riders in a day with Magic Kingdom round trips. So, I could totally believe that there are 150,000 rides on the monorail on New Years Eve (the number of people riding the ferries and buses might be similar to the number of people riding the Epcot line?). But a typical day when MK has something like 50,000 guests? How many people ride each line in a day?

I know Disney doesn't release this type of information, but maybe someone has some educated guesses? I searched the forums and was unable to get any sense of what these answers may be. I would appreciate any information or thoughts on this.[/B]

 

[BrittanyRose428]

I'm not sure quite how I would estimate it, but the numbers get really confusing because you don't know how the guest count fluctuates throughout the day if that makes sense. When I worked there we would hear things like 30,000 at 2 PM, but it's dropped since then. It goes up and down throughout the day, so the estimate of 150,000 may actually be pretty close to correct? If there's 45,000 in the park at any given time, which I would guess is about average, there could still be more people coming and going throughout the day, especially when you factor in the resort line, and perhaps if the Epcot line is also included in that 150,000, I'm not sure. My guess is that one way or another it's probably pretty close to accurate, and it's just difficult for us to factor in how many people come and go in a day without having a specific count from Disney.

 

[CAPTAIN HOOK]

I would appreciate any information or thoughts on this.

Two things that you appear to have forgotten -
1) The resort monorail - not all guests travel TTC - MK and back. Many will tour the resorts.
2) TTC - EPCOT monorail (and back)

 

[DisneyJoe]

But a typical day when MK has something like 50,000 guests? How many people ride each line in a day?

Assuming the park hits 50,000 guests for that day, and assuming they ALL ride the monorail, 50,000 had to ride TO the MK, and then 50,000 had to LEAVE the MK, so that would be 100,000 guests that rode.

Then you have those that leave the park and go back multiple times a day, or those that go to their resort and back or to the parking lot and back; and then factor in the Epcot monorail.

 

[thomas998]

Assuming the park hits 50,000 guests for that day, and assuming they ALL ride the monorail, 50,000 had to ride TO the MK, and then 50,000 had to LEAVE the MK, so that would be 100,000 guests that rode.

Then you have those that leave the park and go back multiple times a day, or those that go to their resort and back or to the parking lot and back; and then factor in the Epcot monorail.

And that doesn't even include the people that ride it because it's free entertainment... I've met several people that have done just that when they arrive mid-day and don't want to waste a ticket on a partial day... they hop on the monorail with their kids and boom the ride Disney offers that's free.

 

[Retroman40]

Let's start with how many trains actual run in a given day. The Express "typically" runs from 8:30 to 1:00 am (for a 9 am - 12 pm MK day). Of late, three trains has been "normal". Since a train takes about 11 minutes to complete a lap, each train completes about 80 laps. From 8:30 to around 11 it's one way from TTC to the MK and from around 10 pm to midnight it's one way from the MK to TTC. So there are about 240 express trips. At peak they leave full with about 300-320 guests but during mid day it's not unusual for for trains to carry lower loads but they carry people from TTC to MK and MK to TTC. I would guess the average train overall carries around 200 guests per lap. 200 x 240 = 48000.

Looking at Epcot, the beam is typically open 9-11 with two trains and about a 22 minute round trip and carries guests both ways. I would estimate the average Epcot train has around 150 people each way. Using the same math as for the express that would come to 76 trains carrying 300 people per lap. That's around another 23000 people. That's 71000 between the two.

The wild card is the resort beam. With four trains typically and about a 18 minute lap time and the beam operating 17 hours per day (7 am - 1 am) that's over 200 trains making 5 stops each lap. It's not unusual for people staying say at the Poly to ride Poly to MK, perhaps ride MK to Contemporary for lunch, back to to their hotel and then back to MK later. If the average train carries 300 different people each lap that's over 60,000 trips. For this example that totals over 130,000 guest trips - not too far off from 150,000.

Bottom line is that the 150,000 number is quite plausible.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I have always liked how knowledgeable many of the participants in this forum are, so I was wondering if I could get some help understanding some stuff about the WDW monorail.

On the http://www.wdwmagic.com/transportation/monorail.htm page, it says "On a typical day, more than 150,000 guests use monorail transportation." Is this for a typical day or a peak day? Obviously, it says this is a typical day, but I can't imagine this being the ridership on an average day.

It is my understanding that Magic Kingdom can accommodate something like 75,000 guests on a peak day, so if 100% of guests take the monorail to the Magic Kingdom (instead of riding the ferry or buses), that can get 150,000 riders in a day with Magic Kingdom round trips. So, I could totally believe that there are 150,000 rides on the monorail on New Years Eve (the number of people riding the ferries and buses might be similar to the number of people riding the Epcot line?). But a typical day when MK has something like 50,000 guests? How many people ride each line in a day?

I know Disney doesn't release this type of information, but maybe someone has some educated guesses? I searched the forums and was unable to get any sense of what these answers may be. I would appreciate any information or thoughts on this.

Its a rough estimate but when you come up with average daily ridership, 125-150k would be a good guestimate.

 

[Ralphlaw]

The difficult factors:

1. The resort monorail not only takes guests to MK, but also takes guests to TTC, then Epcot. If a Contemporary guest rides the rail to TTC, then to Epcot, then back to TTC, then home to the Contemporary, that would be four guest trips for one person going to Epcot--I think.

2. Park hoppers double up the trips as well. We often hit both Epcot and MK on the same day.

3. People go in and out of the parks all day long. Although 50,000 is peak, 70,000 people might have visited during the day.

4. Resort dinners, such as Chef Mickeys and the rest, put guests on the monorail, then back to MK or the TTC or to a resort. That's at least two trips per person that may not even enter the parks.

Yup, 150,000 sound about right to me.

And if you're going to Epcot on New Years Day, note that it'll be Who Years day this year. Wear your favorite Dr. Who garb and receive a free smile from the likes of me.

 

[s8film40]

 

[Twirlnhurl]

I can't believe I missed that! I must have looked at this document four or five times without noticing this! Thanks so much!

I have been trying to model the monorail ridership in my spare time for a while using the number of hotel rooms and the relative popularity of the theme parks based on the TEA attendance estimates. The actual statewide ridership number was necessary to calibrate the model and until now, I have just been guessing. I still need to figure out a distribution between the different lines, but this helps a lot.

As far as the temporal distribution of demand goes, I was planning to use TouringPlans wait time data as a proxy for in-park population. Maybe I can use that along with Retroman40's estimates?

 

[Twirlnhurl]

I would really appreciate it if anyone has comments on my ridership numbers. I used Retroman40's estimates for lap time, number of trains, number of passengers on a "full" train, and hours of operation, along with the RCID Comp plan total ridership number to estimate the distribution of ridership on the monorail network.

Basically, from Retroman40's post, I use the equation below to compare the lines:

[people per peak minute] = ([number of trains] / [lap time]) * [estimated train load]

[monorail ridership per line] = ([people per peak minute for line X] / [sum of people per peak minute]) * [total ridership per RCID comp plan]

The people per line assuming 50,000 average daily riders:
Express line (52.1% of total): 26,040 riders
Resort line (39.8% of total): 19,892 riders
Epcot line (8.1% of total): 4,069 riders

What do you think of these totals? The Epcot line numbers seem way low to me. I have a hard time believing that the Epcot line carries fewer riders than Pirates of the Caribbean carries in two hours.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Wouldn't it just be a guess anyway, they don't have a count for each rider, I don't think. I have never seen an electric eye or noticed anyone counting.

 

[thomas998]

I would really appreciate it if anyone has comments on my ridership numbers. I used Retroman40's estimates for lap time, number of trains, number of passengers on a "full" train, and hours of operation, along with the RCID Comp plan total ridership number to estimate the distribution of ridership on the monorail network.

Basically, from Retroman40's post, I use the equation below to compare the lines:



The people per line assuming 50,000 average daily riders:
Express line (52.1% of total): 26,040 riders
Resort line (39.8% of total): 19,892 riders
Epcot line (8.1% of total): 4,069 riders

What do you think of these totals? The Epcot line numbers seem way low to me. I have a hard time believing that the Epcot line carries fewer riders than Pirates of the Caribbean carries in two hours.

If Epcot line only carries 4,000 riders a day it basically means they need to shut it down... that's not enough people to justify using it. A monorail hits the station every 10 to 15 minutes.... Lets say every 15 minutes that would mean 48 trips one way in a 12 hour day... or 96 since it goes both ways... lets average it to 100... that would mean 100 trips a day and 4,000 passengers a day or 40 on each monorail... You could do that on a bus and it would cost much less... How much money is spent on maintenance? Sorry, but if those numbers are right I don't understand why it is still being used.

 

[Goofyernmost]

If Epcot line only carries 4,000 riders a day it basically means they need to shut it down... that's not enough people to justify using it. A monorail hits the station every 10 to 15 minutes.... Lets say every 15 minutes that would mean 48 trips one way in a 12 hour day... or 96 since it goes both ways... lets average it to 100... that would mean 100 trips a day and 4,000 passengers a day or 40 on each monorail... You could do that on a bus and it would cost much less... How much money is spent on maintenance? Sorry, but if those numbers are right I don't understand why it is still being used.

Because it is as much of a Disney legacy as the Castles. Even those that don't use it often the public would go ballistic if it were to not run. Also, like you said it is an average. There are times of the day that there are many more on it, of course, that means that there are less then 40 on board many times, just like a bus would be. They more then make up the difference in cost just with what they charge for the Monorail Resorts. It's like saying why do they have topiaries. They don't generate a single penny on their own, but, much money is spent on creating and care. The cost of doing business.

 

[thomas998]

Because it is as much of a Disney legacy as the Castles. Even those that don't use it often the public would go ballistic if it were to not run. Also, like you said it is an average. There are times of the day that there are many more on it, of course, that means that there are less then 40 on board many times, just like a bus would be. They more then make up the difference in cost just with what they charge for the Monorail Resorts. It's like saying why do they have topiaries. They don't generate a single penny on their own, but, much money is spent on creating and care. The cost of doing business.

Well the monorail loop between the resorts and MK can be justified by allowing the increase in resort prices... But the EPCOT monorail doesn't actually connect to the resort directly so I'm not seeing resort prices as any benefit gained from the EPCOT line.

 

[s8film40]

Well the monorail loop between the resorts and MK can be justified by allowing the increase in resort prices... But the EPCOT monorail doesn't actually connect to the resort directly so I'm not seeing resort prices as any benefit gained from the EPCOT line.

Just because it's not a direct line from the resorts doesn't mean it isn't convenient to get to Epcot from the monorail resorts via monorail. In fact in some cases for some rooms at the Polynesian the walk to the Epcot monorail entrance is closer than the Great Ceremonial House.

 

[Innkeeper's Club]

Just because it's not a direct line from the resorts doesn't mean it isn't convenient to get to Epcot from the monorail resorts via monorail. In fact in some cases for some rooms at the Polynesian the walk to the Epcot monorail entrance is closer than the Great Ceremonial House.

If you think about it the Grand Floridian/Grand Floridian Villas is the only Monorail Resort where it would be considered "inconvenient" for getting to the Epcot Monorail. After the Resort Monorail leaves from there it's next stops is the Magic Kingdom and Contemporary before it arrives at the TTC. If your staying at the Contemporary/Bay Lake Tower it's a quick Monorail ride to the TTC and as you said at the Polynesian you can walk to the TTC.

 

[Twirlnhurl]

I am quite certain that my calculated ridership for the Epcot line is too low. I feel like the monorail trains leaving Epcot for the hour around park close are pretty full, so that should be more than 1,000 trips in that hour alone. But I don't know what a real number might be.

The reason I am trying to estimate the daily ridership on the existing monorail lines is because I am trying to model different monorail expansion concepts. I know that monorail is less reliable than buses and wildly more expensive (part of my project is trying to estimate what that order of magnitude might be). But I also think that Monorail is part of the quintessential WDW experience.

 

[s8film40]

I feel like the monorail trains leaving Epcot for the hour around park close are pretty full, so that should be more than 1,000 trips in that hour alone.

Actually somewhere around 1,000 sounds about right for that hour. It typically takes about 3 trains (2 on slower days maybe 4 when it's really busy) to take care of the back up from the fireworks exit. With each train holding around 250 - 300 passengers I would say the average for that hour is around 800 - 900.

 

[Twirlnhurl]

If there was 1,000 trips out of Epcot in the last hour, would it be fair to assume that less than 50% of guests leave in that single hour? If half the rides are to Epcot and half the trips are from Epcot, I think that means 4,000 is just too little.

In my original calculation, I assumed that the Epcot line has two trains normally. Is that right? If there are 3 trains on the Epcot line, the ridership is as follows:
Express line (50.0% of total): 25,022 riders
Resort line (38.2% of total): 19,1114 riders
Epcot line (11.7% of total): 5,864 riders

Epcot is still pretty low. Since I am arbitrarily making things up, could I say that in the peak hour, the Epcot train has 250 people instead of 150 people?
Express line (46.4% of total): 23,207 riders
Resort line (35.5% of total): 17,728 riders
Epcot line (18.1% of total): 9,065 riders

The last one strikes me as being about right. What do you think? If I used this to model the system, would this be a halfway reasonable number, or is a different ridership distribution better?