Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015
000
WTNT41 KNHC 062136
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 20 KT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an
intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still
shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well-
organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt.
Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should
cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24
and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to
become a strong extratropical cyclone.
Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and
is racing toward the east-northeast at about 20 kt. Track guidance
is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track
for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. However,
Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model
consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 39.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
Continue reading...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 062136
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 20 KT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
Joaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an
intermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still
shows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well-
organized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt.
Both cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should
cause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24
and 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to
become a strong extratropical cyclone.
Joaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and
is racing toward the east-northeast at about 20 kt. Track guidance
is tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track
for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. However,
Joaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model
consensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 39.0N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 40.4N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 43.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 48.0N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 49.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Avila
Continue reading...