Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010240
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what
thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance.
Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the
diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the
cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical
storm. The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60
kt. As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment
ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear,
progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability. The
official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM
guidance. Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile
future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated
here.
The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the
initial motion is 310/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
Fred is forecast to build gradually westward. This should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. A more westward
track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower
cyclone steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast
remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. This is also very
similar to the previous NHC track forecast.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 17.9N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Continue reading...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010240
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what
thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance.
Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the
diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the
cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical
storm. The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60
kt. As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment
ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear,
progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability. The
official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM
guidance. Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile
future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated
here.
The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the
initial motion is 310/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
Fred is forecast to build gradually westward. This should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. A more westward
track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower
cyclone steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast
remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. This is also very
similar to the previous NHC track forecast.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 17.9N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Continue reading...