A Spirited Perfect Ten

[GoofGoof]

The financial position is different but the excuses for lack of action remain the same. Any reason, real or manufactured, is good enough for Disney management to use on delaying reinvestment domestically. If Shanghai becomes a moneysuck, they will absolutely use that as a reason to hold back domestically - it's all about impressing Wall Street.

They've got more money than ever, but as @ParentsOf4 has pointed out so many times, capex is at record lows.

These people are reactionary and certainly not visionary.

Especially domestic capex.

 

[Goofyernmost]

It won't directly impact domestic P&R operations, but it can have an impact on future capital spend for TWDC. If this project failed miserably then the Wall Street guys might sour on future capital P&R spend which could hurt the domestic parks. A smaller pie means less money for everyone.

Of course a wild success in China could also lead to a phase 2 and phase 3 of Shanghai which could eat into future domestic capital spend too. I think as a fan of WDW we really need to pull for a mild success in China. Not enough to lead to further investment, but not too little that it could have a negative impact either.

They might turn sour on foreign capital spent, but, locally they have a fairly solid track record, I doubt, it would alter much if domestic spending happened anymore then it would have if Singapore never existed.

The best part of the now famous "Disney Low Profile" posturing is that if it does fail, China will get the blame. If it appeared to be all Disney's control then Disney would be the losers.

 

[GoofGoof]

They might turn sour on foreign capital spent, but, locally they have a fairly solid track record, I doubt, it would alter much if domestic spending happened anymore then it would have if Singapore never existed.

The best part of the now famous "Disney Low Profile" posturing is that if it does fail, China will get the blame. If it appeared to be all Disney's control then Disney would be the losers.

Wall Street is really luke warm at best on capital projects. Right now Iger and TWDC are on a major winning streak so they can do no wrong in the eyes of the street. That can change on a dime. If Shanghai is a failure it won't be Iger's problem. He'll be gone, but the new CEO will have to deal with the fallout and will have even less clout coming in.

 

[Nmoody1]

Spirited 24-Hour Day Musing:

First, apologies, but I won't be commenting on China and the Tomorrowland debut until post the holiday weekend.

I did want to chime in regarding what is now an annual event (even though Disney won't tell you so, in case they decide in 2019 to not hold the 24-hour kickoff to summer) though after talking to some people who were in Anaheim and getting an interesting note regarding MK.

BTW, I've only done this event once. Last year, Angie and I wrapped up a week in Anaheim by spending our last full day and night at the parks. No, didn't get up early. I think we arrived at the parks around 10:30 in the morning. Crowds weren't bad at all until late afternoon. But by about 6 p.m., they really picked up. Angie headed back to the Grand Cali about 11:30 when DL was packed. I was going to ride Pirates, but saw a 40-minute wait and realized that I'm a bit too old for the whole scene and left for the villa. I doubt I'll ever do the event again ...on either coast. You need to be young or someone like @WDWFigment, who doesn't need sleep, to fully enjoy it. I'm only young at heart and I need a good 8-9 hours of slumber every night. It might be worth it if they had the event in Tokyo (they do have an all-night party on NYE at TDL, but it isn't a 24-hour deal and requires a special ticket ... and now I think Mr. Bricker may add this to his 'To Do' list!)

But back to Friday/Saturday ...

Apparently, DLR Ops screwed the masses royally on this one, as they have been known to do. DCA packed to the gills all night, while DL was virtually empty post fireworks. Fights out in the Esplanade. No organization. No crowd control.

I'm very curious to see if any of the social media whores (many of whom were flown out to Anaheim and given free rooms and free ... well, everything except crystal meth!) will actually give Anaheim officials the rightful bashing they deserve. You don't throw a party and then act shocked when lots of people actually show up (unless, perhaps, you're a fanboi).

That brings us to the swamps. And the MK where the 24-hour day sorta passed like the proverbial tree falling in the forest.

If you think the two paragraphs above have nothing in common, then you truly have no concept of how Disney uses and abuses social media in 2015.

A kind Spirit in WDW operations told me that ''we treated the day like simply an extended EMH night. That was what we were told to do going back months. We had a meeting months ago where [exec name withheld] told us that with all the new offerings Disneyland was premiering that the social media contingent, his/her word, not mined [sic], would all be out in Anaheim and that the purpose for the events is to utilize social media engagement to get free publicity for our summer. No considerable social media presence meant no need to actually try [and] put on a good show. The guests and fans didn't really factor into this. If we weren't ordered by Burbank to have this event, then we wouldn't have. I think anyone who attended got the idea we were going through the motions. They were right as that's all we were doing.''

So, there you have it. WDW went thru the motions because WDW management thought that was what they could get away with. Anyone spend yesterday in the Swamp Kingdom? I have a few friends who I think were going, but not sure.

BTW, apologies for accusing WDW's Top BRAND Advocate of whoring his way to Anaheim. I've been told that Lou Mongello was at WDW instead for some seminar (why do I sense a Scamway presentation?) for young leaders, so he was not at DL.

Also, been told that the new WoC is truly weak. That is lacks flow and has hugely out of place Frozen (yes, Let It Go!) and Star Wars (We're home Chewie!) segments. Sorry, but Walt had zero to do with either of these franchises. And even using DL as a jumping off point, that's still quite tenuous. But, hey they did remove a Marvel segment (no, I'm sadly not kidding!) This show was shoved down Steve Davison's throat (insert fanboi joke of your choice) by marketing people who truly have no idea what they are even selling.

Anyway, enjoy those few morsels and a safe and happy long weekend to all ... and, maybe, you could just think for five minutes of the weekend about what it symbolizes beyond picnics, beer and baseball. (or hockey if you just watched the marathon Ducks and Blackhawks game).

It was painfully obvious that MK were just going through the motions and only running the 24 hour event (poorly) because they were told by the big wigs in anahiem - and Orlando really did throw their toys and do the bare minimum. But! As we are on the subject of crowd control....

I visited the Magic Kingdom post fireworks show yesterday to take advantage of EMH... It was DANGEROUSLY crowded - the monorail was down (probably after working so hard the day before (and the past 20+ years of operation) and the whole area was. Crush. I'm 6"4' so tower over most - and even I felt a little claustrophobic. Security were doing very little, it was quite clear that nobody has any initiative when it comes to crowd control in what was rapidly becoming a very serious situation. Just how would the Magic Kingdom cope in an emergency came into serious question. Everyone around were commenting how Disney are usually so good with crowds but they were not coping here.

Maybe the same fool that came up with the near on impossible to navigate New Hub was also overseeing operations at the front of the park. Has anyone actually tried to use the new hub after 8pm? It's the only time of day it's bearable given the lack of shade, yet come 8pm there are folks armed with light sabers that are studying to be doctors and retired folk sending you on a wild goose chase.

But fear not. The magic Kingdom looks like a pristine operation when you compare it to the way things are run at Star Wars weekends. In a line that lasted 1.5 hours for Darth Vader (he had a meeting with the Emperor at least 5 times in that time) there were three umbrellas for shade. Same at mickey/Minnie or Donald/Goofy (they rotate so you never know who you'll get. Two umbrellas for a 1 hour wait.

This is the park with empty theatres, sound stages and buildings yet people have to endure crazy wait times. You may call me crazy for waiting for so long, but aside from eat various cupcakes or wait 40 minutes for an effectless 'Great' Movie Ride there isn't much else to do.... Until it's time for fireworks and those clueless, in empowered pensioners come out with flashing sticks to remind us why Hollywood Studios shouldn't host fireworks (at least in front of GMR) because masking tape on the floor isn't great for crowd control, and there isn't that much space. The space I did find I was told I couldn't stand because it was a walk way... I pointed out that where I was standing wasnt, it was the main viewing area and there was probably already 1000+ people there, but Ken from Orlando, Fl couldn't really understand what I was saying. I truly believe he was more dead behind the eyes than all of the robots in the final scene of Carousel of Progress!

In short, my weekend has been a crowd control mess in Orlando. Nothing gets you craving the new poor mans World of Color replacement in California like a week at the most un-magical (I'm looking at you Park Ops) place on earth!

 

[Cesar R M]

A story about the horrible working conditions at the Shanghai Disney Resort site is why Disney would push for raising their costs.

could be worse.. Dubai and Quatar anyone?
loved how their governments tried to PR (by lying) the human rights groups that went to check.

 

[Cesar R M]

In some cases these might not be too far off right now! lol Enjoy!

http://www.dishumor.com/blogs/entry/26-life-without-disney-world/

That felt more silent hill esque.. or Metro2033.. (as in post apocalyptic)

 

[AEfx]

Yeah, because domestic P&R didn't suffer for 20 years because of Disneyland Paris or anything.

I think you'll find the DLP issue was a bit different. I'll leave it to the more business minded folks, but given that DLP is the #1 tourist attraction in Europe, yet it has operated in the red for most of it's existence and has enormous debt, shows intrinsic financial issues with the park that don't seem will be replicated here.

 

[Phil12]

Ohhhhhhhh Phil....... I'm waiting for you to address my question. Whats wrong Phil, why cant you answer my very simple question?

You're still talking in circles there. I'd like to hear your thoughts here on the specifics beyond a simple "China hates Westernization." Thats simple beyond belief, ranks up there with "The sun rises every day in the East"

So please, explain the simple explanation that you say we're all missing.

If thats your argument, that reinforces what I'm saying with either: Iger capitulating to keep from ruffling feathers or he's being forced to capitulate in order to do business in China. Either way, Disney isn't calling the shots in China whatsoever.

Sorry that I did not provide you with the answer you wanted, however, I honestly thought the answer I provided was suficient. But I'll reiterate the same old song about Disney is a business and they want to make money. Just as Disney has a licensing deal with OLC, they were smart enough to understand that a similar deal in China would not be to their advantage. While they have an ownership deal in China, Disney is perfectly happy to let China run the show. I think Iger is just following through on Eisner's philosophy that trained monkeys can do the job of theme park employees.

I honestly don't think TWDC cares about who is perceived to be running the show. What they care about is money and all the opportunities for making more money that this entry to China provides. It's very obvious that Bob Iger is not interested in creating cinematic artistic masterpieces or innovative park attractions. Nor should he be interested in those things. He's making lots of money and this entry into China will be his legacy. If future CEO's are able to succeed in the Chinese market and TWDC becomes bigger and more powerful, it will all reflect back to Bob Iger as the genius who opened the door to China for TWDC.

Except for this thread, I've not seen anyone that is concerned about seeing or not seeing photos of Disney executives in China. It's really a non issue, except here. I look upon it as a red herring.

 

[AEfx]

Iger capitulating to keep from ruffling feathers or he's being forced to capitulate in order to do business in China. Either way, Disney isn't calling the shots in China whatsoever.

See, this is the part that I'm just not convinced is how folks are interpreting it.

I don't understand why folks don't see it as an obvious business strategy for doing business with another culture, which it very well could be (and seems like the most likely choice).

I just don't see why Iger would have a problem with any of this - actually, from his persona, I'd think the guy was relieved to not be paraded out. Western media really doesn't give a crap about amusement parks on the other side of the world outside of financial results, and Iger being in or not being in pictures wasn't going to change that.

Coupled with the fact that a white American presiding over an opening would be culturally questionable in China (this is China, not Japan) - this all seems to make pretty logical sense why he wouldn't be paraded out and asked to do his uncomfortable debutante routine that he is forced to do for things Western media will cover.

But hey, it's Iger - GRRRR! and we have nothing going on in our own parks to talk about, so I guess I can see why folks really want it to be some vast conspiracy that somehow emasculates their Villain-in-Chief.

 

[Phil12]

But hey, it's Iger - GRRRR! and we have nothing going on in our own parks to talk about, so I guess I can see why folks really want it to be some vast conspiracy that somehow emasculates their Villain-in-Chief.

That's a good summation!

 

[PhotoDave219]

Sorry that I did not provide you with the answer you wanted, however, I honestly thought the answer I provided was suficient. But I'll reiterate the same old song about Disney is a business and they want to make money. Just as Disney has a licensing deal with OLC, they were smart enough to understand that a similar deal in China would not be to their advantage. While they have an ownership deal in China, Disney is perfectly happy to let China run the show. I think Iger is just following through on Eisner's philosophy that trained monkeys can do the job of theme park employees.

I honestly don't think TWDC cares about who is perceived to be running the show. What they care about is money and all the opportunities for making more money that this entry to China provides. It's very obvious that Bob Iger is not interested in creating cinematic artistic masterpieces or innovative park attractions. Nor should he be interested in those things. He's making lots of money and this entry into China will be his legacy. If future CEO's are able to succeed in the Chinese market and TWDC becomes bigger and more powerful, it will all reflect back to Bob Iger as the genius who opened the door to China for TWDC.

Except for this thread, I've not seen anyone that is concerned about seeing or not seeing photos of Disney executives in China. It's really a non issue, except here. I look upon it as a red herring.

Well, I see you're just parroting what Me, others and @WDW1974 are saying. China is calling the shots.

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[PhotoDave219]

See, this is the part that I'm just not convinced is how folks are interpreting it.

I don't understand why folks don't see it as an obvious business strategy for doing business with another culture, which it very well could be (and seems like the most likely choice).

I just don't see why Iger would have a problem with any of this - actually, from his persona, I'd think the guy was relieved to not be paraded out. Western media really doesn't give a crap about amusement parks on the other side of the world outside of financial results, and Iger being in or not being in pictures wasn't going to change that.

Coupled with the fact that a white American presiding over an opening would be culturally questionable in China (this is China, not Japan) - this all seems to make pretty logical sense why he wouldn't be paraded out and asked to do his uncomfortable debutante routine that he is forced to do for things Western media will cover.

But hey, it's Iger - GRRRR! and we have nothing going on in our own parks to talk about, so I guess I can see why folks really want it to be some vast conspiracy that somehow emasculates their Villain-in-Chief.

Its the Largest Media empire on the planet making its first Foree into China. Other CEOs would be front and center with their Chinese partners.

Iger's lack of appearance is very curious, considering he was there.

 

[doctornick]

Well, I see you're just parroting what Me, others and @WDW1974 are saying. China is calling the shots.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Yeah, and?

That's the part that many of us don't seem to get. OK, the folks in China are in charge and making the rules. Is this a problem? Why should any of us care? There are people on this thread making it seem like some "big deal" that there's no photo of Iger from China, but from my prospective it doesn't seem like anything of importance. All it does is reaffirm that Disney is letting Chinese officials call the shots because that is the business arrangement to get the access to China they covet.

 

[Phil12]

Well, I see you're just parroting what Me, others and @WDW1974 are saying. China is calling the shots.

Thanks for clearing that up.

I honestly don't think it matters. It's kind of like asking for a raise at work. You go in to see your boss and ask for a $10.00 raise. The boss tells you, "Sorry Dave but things are tough right now and I can't afford to give you a raise, but I can give you a title. I'll change your title to "Mid-Atlantic Regional Director" and we'll talk about the raise when business gets better."

The bottom line is that nothing has really changed. I don't really understand why it's so important to categorize who is "calling the shots"?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Yeah, and?

That's the part that many of us don't seem to get. OK, the folks in China are in charge and making the rules. Is this a problem? Why should any of us care? There are people on this thread making it seem like some "big deal" that there's no photo of Iger from China, but from my prospective it doesn't seem like anything of importance. All it does is reaffirm that Disney is letting Chinese officials call the shots because that is the business arrangement to get the access to China they covet.

For me, its significant because like you said, it seems reflective of the deal to do business in China.

If thats the first layer of this deal, how bad is this deal for TWDC?

 

[PhotoDave219]

I honestly don't think it matters. It's kind of like asking for a raise at work. You go in to see your boss and ask for a $10.00 raise. The boss tells you, "Sorry Dave but things are tough right now and I can't afford to give you a raise, but I can give you a title. I'll change your title to "Mid-Atlantic Regional Director" and we'll talk about the raise when business gets better."

The bottom line is that nothing has really changed. I don't really understand why it's so important to categorize who is "calling the shots"?

Its indicative of what exactly the entry deal into China is.

Meaning, if they can't even promote the CEO being there? How bad are the financial aspects?

 

[doctornick]

For me, its significant because like you said, it seems reflective of the deal to do business in China.

If thats the first layer of this deal, how bad is this deal for TWDC?

Why does it have to be "bad"? I guess I just don't see how a deal where folks in China are in control would be unexpected or unreasonable -- it's kinda the price of doing business there.

I'm not saying that the deal couldn't ending up being poor for Disney -- it certainly might -- but I don't see any red flags just because the Chinese don't want to have Iger be a prominent part of the roll out of Disney in the mainland.

Its indicative of what exactly the entry deal into China is.

Meaning, if they can't even promote the CEO being there? How bad are the financial aspects?

Maybe conceding to Chinese officials in regards to how to promote Disney there was a concession to get better financial arrangements for TWDC?

 

[Quinnmac000]

It matters because its not only China footing the bill but also TWDC. This park fails, it will affect stock prices. Wall Street already hates theme parks, a failed park will push away further investment into parks and resorts later on to keep Wall Street happy. Iger should be forefront to make sure it doesn't fail otherwise he and TWDC look like fools later on when they can't answer questions on why this wasn't done right etc.

Add in the failed rollout of MM+ in addition to a failed park. It wouldn't be taken lightly

 

[PhotoDave219]

Why does it have to be "bad"? I guess I just don't see how a deal where folks in China are in control would be unexpected or unreasonable -- it's kinda the price of doing business there.

I'm not saying that the deal couldn't ending up being poor for Disney -- it certainly might -- but I don't see any red flags just because the Chinese don't want to have Iger be a prominent part of the roll out of Disney in the mainland.



Maybe conceded to Chinese officials in regards to how to promote Disney there was a concession to get better financial arrangements for TWDC?

True, we DON'T know the aspects of the deal. We DON'T know if SDL will answer to the Board of Directors.... or anyone.

To me? Its worth asking the question. Its worth wondering exactly what this deal is if in order to do business in China, so much so, the CEO must capitulate to the point of not being allowed to be seen. Its fishy and it begs looking further.

And you're right. It could be a fantastic deal, that in exchange for Iger not being seen, Disney gets a better financial share. But when in the history of business has that ever happened?

 

[Phil12]

Its indicative of what exactly the entry deal into China is.

Meaning, if they can't even promote the CEO being there? How bad are the financial aspects?

Or, one could say, how good are the financial aspects? We don't know, yet. But time will tell that tale. The problem I see with this analysis, is that worst case scenarios are being projected based upon casual observations without any evidence. I think we need to wait until the financial reports are generated.

Also, there is another assumption that has gotten some credence in this thread. That Iger made a bad deal in his entry to China. My question would be, would you prefer that TWDC had stayed away from China entirely? Isn't a "bad deal" better than no deal at all? I would think that TWDC has a general management plan that addresses international expansion. Right now and for the foreseeable future China is THE place for a company such as Disney to be. I don't fully understand why it has taken them so long to get there.