Crowd Calendars vs Wait Times

[Figaro928]

OK so i have an upcoming trip, so i downloaded MDE to familiarize myself with it. I've been checking wait times like crazy today and a big eyebrow was raised. The wait times were long...real long. (right now, 4:00 barnstormer is at a 50 min wait; HM is at a 45; JC is at a 40; PPF is at 120 - the E-tickets imaginably higher) So I went to see what number the crowd calendars had given this week, figuring maybe there was a marathon i didn't know about or something... Nothing --- In fact, yourfirstvisit and a few other sites had this week at their "lowest of the year" 1's or 2's

When I went September 2013, it to was considered a time with the lowest crowds - but it was. We maybe MAYBE waited 20 minutes for the E tickets. Just about everything was a walk-on.

Now I'm getting a little nervous for our upcoming trip which is listed as a crowd level with 3's and 4's.

Was a crowd level of 2 in 2013 slower than a crowd level of 2 in 2015? Are these MDE wait times accurate?

Thoughts about the accuracies of Crowd Calendars vs MDE Wait Times?

 

[JasonDeyoung]

Those calendars are just predictions and expectation as to what they may be like. I think they go off of the previous years numbers. I don't even look at those because it can be so unpredictable at wdw any time of the year. It could be completely dead this time and wall to wall crowded the next year. The wait times will also vary as the parks hit peak and down times. I wouldn't worry to much

 

[Tuvalu]

This ^^^^. Why stress about something you can't change? Be prepared for crowds and if the parks are less busy, consider it a gift. Even a crowded day at Disney is better than a day at home

 

[Figaro928]

I'm not stressed at all, in fact I'm down-right giddy that I'm going- but I am a planner. And planning for a busier, more crowded time is an adjustment than what i was considering a slower time. If it is going to be busier than I was suspecting, then our plans will change (rope drop vs sleeping in)

Moreso, I was just curious if those wait times really do reflect what is now WDW's slowest times.

 

[Tuvalu]

Wait times on MDE tend to skew a little higher than actual wait times. But attendance at the parks has REALLY increased in the past year and the crowd calendars aren't as accurate anymore. We visited in both September and November (2014) during usual "slow" weeks...the parks were packed. Yea, we were discouraged but adjusted. We are leaving on Thursday for a long weekend and have no idea what kind of crowd to expect.

But it'll still be fun!

 

[jloucks]

We went the last week in October and, except for Halloween, it was predicted to be a low demand week. Turns out it was a pretty high demand week. Jammed everywhere we wen't. Now, after dark it seemed to drop to predicted levels but the days were a bit rough. Our 2012 trip was in May and the predictions were correct, the crowd levels were very light. Best .... trip ... evah!

 

[WDWoptmist]

Since FastPass+ has fully rolled out stand by times have shot up dramatically but they are usually inflated. For instance PoC never used to go over 20 minutes now it is routinely shown over an hour but usually about half of what the sign says. Also crowds have gone up like crazy the last 1-2 years so always expect crowds especially in the middle of the day if you want to avoid long lines (or atleast try to) go early in the morning and later at night. Usually those crowd calendars are pretty accurate when it comes to which parks will be busiest any given day.

 

[noidwork]

I was there that day and it was ridiculous. Fortunately they recognized how crazy it was and kept the park open an extra hour. By 6:30 the lines were way down. Today was much more in line with late January expectations. I think it's a good guideline, but know that there are always anomalies.

 

[LAKid53]

Wait times posted on the app are approximations, which is why you see the CM handing guests a lanyard with a red card attached (to update the standby wait time). Other than the more popular rides, I've found a wait time of 20 minutes to be actually 5 minutes shorter. I base my willingness to wait in standby not just by the posted time, but if the standby line is now snaking around. For example, if the standby line at Star Tours is just a not too long line to the turn style, then I go. If it is starting to snake around, I will defer. If you see a wait time of 10 minutes, that usually means no wait time since that is about the time it takes you to walk to the loading area for many rides. However, we've been snookered, thinking the wait time is only 20 minutes (according to the app I checked while on the bus) but by the time we got to the park, it was now 60 minutes.

This is why we use our precious initial 3 FP+ selections for the rides with the most demand, like 7DMT in Magic Kingdom.

Don't know what logic crowd calendars like Touring Plans uses to estimate crowd levels for a particular park on the particular day (other than history), but since Touring Plans charges a small fee, it better be somewhat accurate.

I would suggest using Google (because Disney doesn't show this info readily) to find if the time you are going is during a special activity, like a marathon weekend, Pop Warner, Cheerleading Competition, Brazilian Tour groups (is it just me or have they now become year round), etc. Those special activities should be reflected (I would hope) in a crowd calendar.

 

[bethymouse]

I have never found wait times to be very accurate.

 

[JIMINYCR]

I always check to see the numbers, try planning accordingly but realize they can vary. So I'm not surprised when a park is busier than predicted and happy when the numbers are close to being right. The crowd calendars are at least something to aid me in my planning and I'd probably do worse if I didnt use them at all.

 

[Ranch Dressing]

In my experience most crowd calanders are completely useless made up nonsense. Absolutely no truth to any of them so personally I would avoid them.

MK is always busy now. The other parks you might find some walk ons during the day but its impossible at MK. Mine train is the busiest attraction in Orlando by far, keep that in mind while making plans.

Don't let it ruin your vacation though, unles you go around Christmas time, you'll still do what you want to.

 

[StarWarsGirl]

I wouldn't pay much attention to those crowd predictions. Sometimes they're right; sometimes they're not.

We had an unusually crowded trip a few weeks ago. That doesn't mean that it will be crowded next year or that it will be crowded when you go.

Basically, you should avoid MK on the weekends unless you are utilizing EMH. Same deal with DHS. You should avoid parks on their EMH days unless you are planning on using EMH. And if you don't have your FPs, you should book them now (you can always change them). That's how we always deal with crowds and we pretty much manage to do everything.

 

[EvilQueen-T]

Up until a few years ago super bowl weekend was slower but that's changed. All of the old off season times are pretty much gone imo as people have spread the word about value season, disney has attracted people to the parks at those times with marathons, flower and garden, food and wine, mnsshp etc... It seems like people are more willing to pull kids out of school rather than only come during traditional off school times here in the US, tour groups are popular this time of year as other countries don't follow the same school break schedules as we have here, and overall just flat out more people are coming to disney. We go at all different times of year and basically it's busy (most days of the year), crazy (spring break/easter, summer, last two weeks of food and wine kind of thing), and insane (4th of july, thanksgiving, and christmas through new years day). just my opinion.

 

[lincolnryan]

I'm here right now and picked this time of year based odd crowd calendar predictions. While I'm having a great time, the parks seem crowded to me. We have friends that go this time each year and they have said in the past that they never waited longer than 20 mins for any ride. First 2 hours have been good, but really picks up after that. Star tours was 45 minutes today, which seemed kinda crazy to me.

If I learned a lesson it would be to not waste time cross crossing the parks like I did the first day. I would create the touring plan and just run thru it. For us it was hard because our kids are unpredictable And scheduling fp could be tricky. If you have a tp, get there at rope drop, and wisely use fp then you'd be ok.

I've been here a few times and prob won't be back for awhile (if ever). Great trip because our kids are at the age where they think it's magical but crowds a bit too much. Crowd calendars seem to be pointing everyone in the same direction. I heard multiple people say things like'this is supposed to be the lowest crowds of the year'

 

[FettFan]

I find the best times to go are either April/May between spring break and summer vacation season, or in September/October right after school gets in and before MNSSHP kicks off the holidays.

 

[Takeitforgranite]

We went last month (14th-20th) and were quite disappointed at the crowd level. We had been in the first week of FEB a couple years ago, and it was great. The thing that really made it bad was that there were major ride breakdowns every day. They create a domino effect that takes a long time to play out. They made lines worse everywhere else. And when those rides opened back up, there was a severe logjam of FP+ people lining up, making it worse all-around. Even AK was really bad late one afternoon, which is something we've never experienced.

I'm a big planner. I study crowd calendars and everything I can get my hands on. I've always felt like we were rewarded for our planning and strategy. This last trip blew everything I know out of the water, and I have to regroup. It's obvious now that there is no offseason. People aren't afraid to take their kids out of school anymore.

I will say that we have been in the last week of May twice, and it has been really nice. The crown calendars don't agree with that. The parks stay open later, and we are able to go back to the resort in the middle of the day to rest.

 

[jloucks]

It seems like people are more willing to pull kids out of school rather than only come during traditional off school times here in the US, ...

Guilty, we pulled our kids out in 2012 and it paid off big time. Minimal crowds and a wonderful experience. However our last trip in October, that the crowd calendars said would be very light, was not light at all! We spent a lot of unexcused absences for a far less wonderful experience. I might have chosen a cruise or trip to the Smithsonian had I known. I would NEVER go intentionally to a crowded amusement park, even if it was free. Going to take one last stab at it in December 2016. ...early in the month.

 

[Ginzuishou]

I went to the Magic Kingdom on 1/28/2015 and rides were walk-on in the morning. Wait times went up to 20-40 minutes as the day went on. Two rides stood out as having the longest lines the whole day: Peter Pan (70 minutes) and Dwarfs Mine Train (80 minutes).

The shortest wait for the Mine Train was 40 minutes (early morning and one hour before close).

I thought it was busy that day, but after seeing some pictures of crowded days, I guess it was actually slow

Even with short wait times, it was impossible for me to do everything I wanted to do in one day.

 

[Figmentation]

Reading through all of these -

Wait times and Crowd Calendars are both as people have said above - Just estimated guesses.
With those, the month of October is starting to become a picky subject now - And you can actually blame the school systems for that.

A lot of schools across the country are turning into 'year round' or what they call 'Balanced' schedule. This means their summer break is shorter but they get longer Spring, Fall, and Winter breaks. (Up to 2 weeks for each week)

Fall break usually hits most school locations by the second week of October all the way to the beginning of November. This has made the USUALLY slow month of October be as busy as a early summer crowd.

Some crowd calenders have not been updated to reflect this change. I have always gotten a particular crowd calender from one website (He shall not be named though, as he is also a picky subject, but I love his site. Mostly because it is really accurate and has never really failed me.)

But yeah, someone pointed out already in a post above the best days to go in the fall:
The end of September (It's always usually slow the first week of Halloween Horror Nights/Not so Scary Halloween, before Fall Break hits)
And the Middle of Spring (April/May Border, after spring break ends)