Where the gain for merch comes is when you start selling things you did not sell before. But Disney was already selling a ton of Disney/SW stuff. The gain for merch comes from all the mainline starwars stuff.. the $3 billion in retail sales it was generating.. but again, the license owner is only getting a tiny fraction of that.
The valuation of the acquisition was justified in the media rights to the franchise.. and that's why Iger and company lead with that in their pitch to wallstreet.
And it's why Disney has not been able to use StarWars sales as notable contributors to their earnings since the announcement.
I don't disagree that the films are likely going to be the profit driver in the shorter term - but the entire Lucasfilm company traditionally made the lion share of ongoing income on the merchandise (which is how it stayed independent for so long, and could have continued to do so had Lucas not wanted out). Star Wars commands (and gets) the highest licensing rates in the industry (and really the entire history of mass produced media tie-in products).
I do think you will find over the next year or two the merchandise as a "notable contributor" is going to become much more of a factor because of the specifics of what has been going on the past 2-3 years where Star Wars merchandise (particularly toys) have had severe issues due to both the cancellation of the 3D re-releases and the Disney purchase.
Brief history of current situation: merchandise (toy, collectable, etc.) takes 1 - 2 years from someone drawing a sketch on a piece of paper (or on a computer) to the item actually being on store shelves. Because the decision to drop the 3D releases was made so late in the game, the product to support them was already on the boat from Asia and on it's way for sale, or at least far enough along in manufacturing to not be feasible to drop, depending on the particulars of each product - and they didn't have anything else to replace it with, either.
So 2012-2013, this product clogged the shelves because there was no media supporting the huge glut of PT merchandise that was expected to drive kids into stores, and the core Star Wars collectors largely prefer OT merchandise over PT merchandise, and at the same time were told to drop their most popular products (Hasbro in particular had to stop the massively successful
The Vintage Collection, because Disney wanted the format held back to be used for Episode VII). What then happens is that a wave of unpopular product sits on the shelves, so even newer product that would be more popular can't come into the store because the old product hasn't gone yet. All this corporate change in direction of the franchise had a
major impact on sales.
Now, all that said, this is rather an appropriate topic to bring up right now, because Disney has just thrown it into second gear, and will have it in third by the end of this year, ramping up to full throttle by next Fall when we are on the heels of the first of the ST.
The truth is, while they had the IP of all time, Lucasfilm wasn't actually very
good at merchandising - they relied way too heavily on the manufacturers and while they had a say as to what was represented thematically, they never got involved in the distribution side and Hasbro especially floundered a bit particularly after the course change. That's why Disney/Lucasfilm was a match made in heaven, because Disney is far more involved in merchandising versus just cashing the check when it comes in.
If you go to Toys R Us, for example, you'll see a stunning sight - for the last several years, Star Wars and Marvel have each had about 4-6 feet of shelf space max, Star Wars being on the lower end of the scale, due to the sales glut described above of mostly PT merchandise. TRU has just done it's "Fall Reset" - and you'll find most stores have a brand new dedicated Star Wars/Marvel
department - two full aisles and several smaller shelving units in between. And they are putting them in the front of stores, right next to the electronics/video game departments. Disney apparently got directly involved with the merchandising and store relationships (which Lucasfilm never did before), and brokered some incredible deals to make sure there is a ton more merch and it's front and center.
So really, it has just barely begun - while I am sure the one-shot boost of profits each film will bring in will be staggering, it's the merchandise that is traditionally the blue-chip of the Star Wars franchise, and with Disney's unquestioned expertise in the area it's going to be quite something over the next year to watch develop.
@Tahu is completely right.
