asianway
Well-Known Member
When the current bubble bursts, where do you think DIS will bottom out at? $41?
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The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)
- Thread starter WDW1974
- Start date
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
It's an intelligent assumption but I'm not sure it's entirely correct.
If you look at just the hotel market (ignoring timeshares and home rentals), Orlando has over 116,000 rooms (excluding WDW) running (in 2013) at an occupancy of 71%, even higher near WDW. Certainly as the #1 tourist destination in Orlando, WDW should be able to capture a large share of that market.
In 2008, WDW had 24,100 hotel and DVC rooms yet maintained an occupancy rate of 90%. The only rooms added since then have been DVC (traditionally high occupancy) and Value Resort (traditionally high occupancy), a total of about 2400 rooms (10%).
Meanwhile, Disney domestic theme park attendance is up 15% since 2008. A lot of that is at DCA but WDW is up as well.
WDW should have had no problem filling those extra rooms if other factors remained constant.
I tend to assign WDW's hotel woes to events that happened after 2008.
Obviously, the economy had the single biggest effect post-2008.
Both onsite and offsite occupancies fell. However, in the last few years, offsite occupancies have rebounded while WDW hotel occupancy continued to languish. Theme park attendance is up at both WDW and at Universal. More people in Orlando should mean more people staying onsite.
Disney's relentless price increases had an effect. Between 2008 and 2013, the gap between the cost of onsite vs. offsite rack rates grew tremendously.
I've always believed that vacationers look at the total price. Once the combined ticket/food/hotel price of booking a WDW-only vacation got too high (far outpacing family income), vacationers began to look at alternatives. The easiest way to save was to stay offsite, especially since many focus on what is spent prior to arrival vs. costs incurred after arrival.
Another factor was WWOHP.
WWOHP burst the 'magical' bubble. It's one thing to stay onsite if you intend to visit only WDW theme parks. However, once you decide to spend a few days offsite to visit something else, WDW's hotel prices really start to look painful when compared to what else is available.
Finally, there's DVC.
Disney's mistake was opening 3 large DVC resorts in just a few years (SSR, BLT, and AKV). Rather than appeal primarily to the offsite timeshare market, these cannibalized WDW's Deluxe and Moderate Resorts.
Anyway, I think WDW's worst hotel years are behind it. I think WDW hotel occupancy has bottomed out and will start to recover, echoing the theme parks' slowly climbing attendance.
Returning to one of the points of this thread, converting excess Deluxe Resort hotel rooms to DVC will help in that recovery.
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ABQ
Well-Known Member
@ParentsOf4 , any idea how much the Orlando area hotel room count changed from say 2000 to current? I have to assume that had WDW not gone through its 10 year resort growth process and added the rooms it had that 3rd party operators outside the bubble would have filled that demand themselves.
BernardandBianca
Well-Known Member
I wasn't. I wanted to know how WDW1974 gets MONTHS of deluxe vacation time for that amount of money.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
That's interesting that the increase was relatively small at BW. I checked out CR rates and on average they look like they are up about 4.5%. The spring time is up the most with certain rooms up over 7% and then some summer rates were up only a few dollars. Maybe the convention business could be a factor. Over the past 3 years CR rates are up an average of 4.25% per year.WDW has complex hotel pricing; rack rates vary greatly throughout WDW's many 'seasons', as do discounts.
The $404/night you mention should be the November 2015 rack rate (without tax) for BWI's lowest priced room. In November 2014, this is $399/night. These translate to $455/night and $449/night with tax.
With discount, the lowest priced BWI room is $405/night (including tax) for October 2014. (BTW, this rate might no longer be available; BWI is an incredibly popular hotel for F&WF.) For November 2014 (excluding Thanksgiving), WDW currently is offering $337/night (including tax), a discount of 25%.
There's a pretty good chance you'll get a discount in November 2015.
To the point of this thread, that increase of only $5/night (1.3%) shows the kind of pricing pressure WDW Deluxe Resort hotels currently are under. It shows why Disney should convert Deluxe Resort rooms to DVC. Converting existing hotel rooms reduces inventory, which should help ease pricing pressure. (Think supply and demand.)
PrincessNelly_NJ
Well-Known Member
The other day I rewatched the new disney "destination america" resort hotels show.
It was mentioned in the show that they have a plan in place to have 50,000 rooms on property.
Do you think Disney can increase occupancy enough to fill 50,000 rooms?
Stevek
Well-Known Member
While I would love to visit DLP, it would certainly be secondary to visiting Paris and such. Same would go for China and Japan. As for Florida, WDW could possibly be the highlight ; )
stevehousse
Well-Known Member
I am paying $222 a night for CBR in Nov this fall, preffered room with free dining plan...
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Yes, if WDW cuts rack rates in half.
Seriously, for everyone who stays onsite, there's someone else who wants to but was driven offsite by prices.
As many have written, for what they are, WDW hotel prices are just crazy.
Goofyernmost
Well-Known Member
I have to agree with that number. In 2008 I took my family to WDW for a week. Not just in Disney, but, basically that same thing. There were eight of us that I paid for almost completely. I did buy some meals, but, they mostly took care of that themselves due to us having a pretty loose schedule and not always together. This included airfare, car rentals, tickets (7 day park hopper, non-expiration), a six bedroom villa about a mile from the main gate. The total I paid was $7500 and I had a pretty good deal on housing, airfare and cars. That was in 2008 which means that $8500 would not be to far out of line now especially if it is onsite.
flynnibus
Premium Member
Let's talk real numbers. These are dated... but it was the last time I dumped all this on a forum. This was a value stay at WDW. If someone was throwing around $8500.. I'd do a 7 day cruise. It's a lot cheaper
But for WDW... here's an old post of mine (June 2009)
The True Cost of a WDW Vacation
Since we just got back from a few days at the kingdom, it was a good time to review our true costs of the trip. Traveling to XYZ vs ABC park is a common discussion topic so I figured sharing our expenses with you will give you all a peek into the true costs of going.
For us it was a family of 5, visiting for 5 days. We were trying to keep it on the cheap side, but not necessarily stripped down. So we booked a few table services, and didn't shy away from spending when necessary.. but didn't go crazy
Airfare:
This segment will always vary for everyone, so it's not as interesting. But in our case, I used miles for 3 of the tickets, mine was paid for because of business, and so we only had to buy one ticket outright.
That ticket for IAD to MCO was $233.20. If we paid for them all, it would have been $1166. It also cost us $60 to park at the airport.
Rental Car:
Because of the 5 people, we needed at least a full sized car. Hotwire car for 5 days = $189.02. Gas for rental car = $18.35
Tickets:
We paid for 5 day park hoppers, at military discount.
3 adults @ 267 each
2 kids @ 232.50 each
Total = $1266
Hotel:
This area will vary greatly as well.. and as noted we were trying to stay cheap this time. So we stayed at the All-Star Sports. However, because we had 5 people, we needed 2 rooms.
Disney was running summer specials, so the rooms were $89 or $99 a night. The next closest prices were either $100 or $300 more. Our total for 2 rooms, for Fri-Wed was $1050.90
So our total 'hard' costs that are outside discretionary spending were:
$ 233.20 Airfare
$ 60.00 Parking
$ 189.02 Car
$ 18.35 Gas
$1266.00 Tickets
$1050.90 Hotel
---------------
$2817.47 Total
Discretionary Spending
Food:
Normally people pick apart food prices. For me, to enjoy my vacation I just need to shut that part of my brain off during vacation to avoid the stress or frustration.
We had 4 table service reservations during the trip, 3 dinners, and 1 breakfast. I'll also break out 'concessions' purchases as normally people look at those buys differently. However, given it was completely oppressive heat while we where there, there was 'no holds barred' kind of buying on drinks. If we need one, we got one. Especially the frozen drinks. On table service, usually I wouldn't get an entree, so these prices are not quite 5 people eating..
Table Service Meals
$ 88.00 Sci-Fi Dine-In
$121.13 Tusker House Character Breakfast
$108.14 Whispering Canyon
$ 73.55 San Angel
Counter Service Meals
$ 35.09 Food Court
$ 7.45 Food Court
$ 19.24 Food Court
$ 28.61 Backlot Express
$ 13.90 Food Court
$ 29.26 Food Court
$ 10.79 Food Court
$ 28.06 Caseys Corner
$ 13.29 Cosmic Rays
$ 17.64 Cosmic Rays
Cart Sales$ 6.16 MK
$ 7.01 DHS
$ 7.55 DHS
$ 5.00 MK
$ 7.01 DHS
$10.09 DHS
$ 6.53 DHS
$10.75 DAK
$ 4.04 DAK
$13.50 EPC
$11.25 DHS
$ 7.01 DHS
$ 5.10 DHS
$ 4.57 MK
$ 7.01 MK
Total Food Spending
$ 390.94 Table Service
$ 203.33 Counter Service
$ 112.58 Cart Sales
---------------------
$ 706.85 Total
Merchandise
We only really make two buys.. some shirts and some small things.
$ 17.00
$ 61.67
$ 51.60
--------
$ 130.27 Total
Grand Totals
$2817.47 Transportation, Lodging, Tickets
$ 706.85 Food
$ 130.27 Merchandise
-------------
$3654.59 Total
So there you have it.. $3600 for 5 people for 5 days.
Jennifer66
Well-Known Member
I'm heading down for 3.5 days over Labor Day weekend with just my husband. We got 3 nights at the Dolphin with a great teacher's rate, inexpensive direct flights on SW from PIT, 2 day park hoppers from a charity auction, and I'll still be looking at probably $3000 + by the time we add all of the food, extra tickets (we need 3, maybe 4 days), and cocktails. It's the cocktails that will kill us
zjer
Active Member
Last fall I stayed at WL for 7 days and spent roughly $4100 for the trip. That includes airfare from a little area near Las Vegas, hotel, tickets, and food for a family of 3. This Spring I stayed at CB for 5 days with my little guy and I probably spent close to $2100 for the same items. Now in full disclosure I do little things like bring granola bars from home for snacks and buy a couple bottles of Jack from the hotel gift shop instead of go to the bar but the prices some people spend at WDW astonish me. I do see a similar situation whenever I go to Vegas however so it's not limited to Orlando. People go there and drop an insane amount of money for basically the same experience as the guy next to them who spent a fraction they did.
Still here? What a pleasant surprise.
I'll just talk about the above. You compare yourself to a network known for being a shill for Wall Street and Big Business ... a network that presents 'news' in a way to make average Americans think the folks who run corporate America, and therefore the USA, have their best interests at heart.
So, yeah, that sorta says it all to me.
If you read his posts the 8500 does not include airfare just the amount he spent on lodging, parks, meals and activities.Also your amount includes 3 more people. If had 8500 for a week I would not be staying at a DIsney resort when there are so many better choices for half the price.
As a Florida resident AP holder I see absolutely zero value in staying on site even with AP/FL resident pricing, $140 for a moderate is just ridiculous. Currently I am staying at the Springhill Suites in the Marriott Village for 77$ a night, its getting a huge renovation in 2 weeks so the rooms are a little older but its clean, close to Disney and has a microwave, sink, extra room with a couch and desk, plus breakfast and a decent pool. Even in its current state its still way better than a value resort at the current reduced rate of 117 for equally ancient All Stars Music.
Unless Disney prices come down by as much as half, I doubt they will see my money for a hotel stay again.
Now I know not everyone has an AP or a car, but there are plenty of hotels close to Disney that offer a better value and provide transportation to and from Disney.
Goofyernmost
Well-Known Member
I wasn't aiming for high luxury. I got it by renting the villa for eight people. (actually 11 but I was reimbursed for their share and I didn't deduct that from what it cost me. I also, like most, didn't have either flyer credits or military discounts. I also had to rent two cars and had personally driven down from Vermont, while I paid for the airfare of 8 people. I don't remember the exact cost of that part, but I can assure you that cost a lot more then then $200.00. In fact it was closer to that amount per person. I had purchased the tickets for more days then we were planning on being there but the difference was so small, at the time, that it wasn't even worth thinking about. We had one onsite sit-down meal and that was at the Hoop De Doo Revue. Other then noon meals, we ate all our meals offsite and even had a full kitchen where we did some of our own. We went to Disney for 4 days, but spent 7 days in central Florida.Let's talk real numbers. These are dated... but it was the last time I dumped all this on a forum. This was a value stay at WDW. If someone was throwing around $8500.. I'd do a 7 day cruise. It's a lot cheaper
But for WDW... here's an old post of mine (June 2009)
The True Cost of a WDW Vacation
Since we just got back from a few days at the kingdom, it was a good time to review our true costs of the trip. Traveling to XYZ vs ABC park is a common discussion topic so I figured sharing our expenses with you will give you all a peek into the true costs of going.
For us it was a family of 5, visiting for 5 days. We were trying to keep it on the cheap side, but not necessarily stripped down. So we booked a few table services, and didn't shy away from spending when necessary.. but didn't go crazy
Airfare:
This segment will always vary for everyone, so it's not as interesting. But in our case, I used miles for 3 of the tickets, mine was paid for because of business, and so we only had to buy one ticket outright.
That ticket for IAD to MCO was $233.20. If we paid for them all, it would have been $1166. It also cost us $60 to park at the airport.
Rental Car:
Because of the 5 people, we needed at least a full sized car. Hotwire car for 5 days = $189.02. Gas for rental car = $18.35
Tickets:
We paid for 5 day park hoppers, at military discount.
3 adults @ 267 each
2 kids @ 232.50 each
Total = $1266
Hotel:
This area will vary greatly as well.. and as noted we were trying to stay cheap this time. So we stayed at the All-Star Sports. However, because we had 5 people, we needed 2 rooms.
Disney was running summer specials, so the rooms were $89 or $99 a night. The next closest prices were either $100 or $300 more. Our total for 2 rooms, for Fri-Wed was $1050.90
So our total 'hard' costs that are outside discretionary spending were:
$ 233.20 Airfare
$ 60.00 Parking
$ 189.02 Car
$ 18.35 Gas
$1266.00 Tickets
$1050.90 Hotel
---------------
$2817.47 Total
Discretionary Spending
Food:
Normally people pick apart food prices. For me, to enjoy my vacation I just need to shut that part of my brain off during vacation to avoid the stress or frustration.
We had 4 table service reservations during the trip, 3 dinners, and 1 breakfast. I'll also break out 'concessions' purchases as normally people look at those buys differently. However, given it was completely oppressive heat while we where there, there was 'no holds barred' kind of buying on drinks. If we need one, we got one. Especially the frozen drinks. On table service, usually I wouldn't get an entree, so these prices are not quite 5 people eating..
Table Service Meals
$ 88.00 Sci-Fi Dine-In
$121.13 Tusker House Character Breakfast
$108.14 Whispering Canyon
$ 73.55 San Angel
Counter Service Meals
$ 35.09 Food Court
$ 7.45 Food Court
$ 19.24 Food Court
$ 28.61 Backlot Express
$ 13.90 Food Court
$ 29.26 Food Court
$ 10.79 Food Court
$ 28.06 Caseys Corner
$ 13.29 Cosmic Rays
$ 17.64 Cosmic Rays
Cart Sales$ 6.16 MK
$ 7.01 DHS
$ 7.55 DHS
$ 5.00 MK
$ 7.01 DHS
$10.09 DHS
$ 6.53 DHS
$10.75 DAK
$ 4.04 DAK
$13.50 EPC
$11.25 DHS
$ 7.01 DHS
$ 5.10 DHS
$ 4.57 MK
$ 7.01 MK
Total Food Spending
$ 390.94 Table Service
$ 203.33 Counter Service
$ 112.58 Cart Sales
---------------------
$ 706.85 Total
Merchandise
We only really make two buys.. some shirts and some small things.
$ 17.00
$ 61.67
$ 51.60
--------
$ 130.27 Total
Grand Totals
$2817.47 Transportation, Lodging, Tickets
$ 706.85 Food
$ 130.27 Merchandise
-------------
$3654.59 Total
So there you have it.. $3600 for 5 people for 5 days.
We went on a side trip to the Kennedy Space Center as well as one day in Universal, plus the typical roadside attractions. We consisted of 7 adults, 1 teen and 3 kids all no younger then 6 years old. The cars used consisted of one 7 passenger van, one 5 passenger full sized sedan (both rentals) and my Cadillac (6 passenger unless you want to be comfortable). As I said, our villa had 6 bedrooms, 4 baths, playroom with pool table and air hockey. 7 flat screen TV's, laundry, large screened Florida room with a private swimming pool and hot tub, enclosed. The villa cost me about $2400.00 if I recall but would have required 4 rooms onsite to accommodate the different family dynamics without sacrificing a lot of privacy. That was six years ago. So my point was that it isn't that far out of line for a current cost of $8500.00 in today's prices.
Yes, you can do other things for less money. No doubt about it, however, the one thing that you cannot do is visit WDW, especially from a distance, for a whole lot less then that. And the thing was, what we wanted to do was visit WDW. If we had wanted to take a cruise, that's what we would have done. If going to WDW was what was wanted, then realistically there are no other options.
bhg469
Well-Known Member
Is that with passes? I got cbr in march and it was a cm discount, only was about 110 a night. I would have prefered pop for the same price.
Goofyernmost
Well-Known Member
I'll take your word for not including airfare and to be honest I don't even know where they are coming in from. However, if it is from a distance then they are probably one of the captive thousands, without any way of getting away from the wallet squeezing hands of Disney. But it still doesn't matter. As I said a few moments ago. Yes, you can go many places on this planet for a lot less money, but none of those places are WDW. So, if WDW is where you want to go that is what it costs. If there were some place in Central America where you could stay for $12.50 a week it wouldn't matter because that's not where they wanted to go. That is where the value decisions are made. It might not be worth that much to you or I, but, if it is to them, then they are getting the value that they want. Why should we care.
threvester
Well-Known Member
I will be at asmu in three weeks....it is $72 per night average...take out the $18 daily parking charge and its significantly cheaper than many offsite options
flynnibus
Premium Member
I was clear in my example of what airfare I paid for or not... I even stated
"That ticket for IAD to MCO was $233.20. If we paid for them all, it would have been $1166." That's still way less than the nearly 5,000 difference between my trip in yours.
Note this is the last time we flew. Since then, we drive, which costs about $350 in gas or so. So yeah, thinking of 8500 on a WDW trip as pretty normal stands out to me.. considering we do it for 40% of that.
I our 4 day cruise cost about $3300... plus $350 to drive there.. $120 in a hotel, $50 in food before hand.. and then discretionary spending (which I haven't totaled..). But I'm fairly sure it wasn't $3000 dollars
Add in another $1000 for a Universal stay at the end of the trip. My total was probably $7000 for a 4 day cruise AND 3 days at UNI
The 7 day cruise was $5400.. plus $350 to drive.. $120 in a hotel on the way down.. plus $450 at KSC on the way out.. another $100 in hotel and another $50 in food. So less than $6500.
The only time I'm spending $8500 plus in my Disney vacation is the upcoming one.. because I'm paying for THREE cabins worth of people.