The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[flyerjab]

That's funny I just stayed 2 weeks at the grand and the room would be 4 stars in my book. My room was turned down every night with chocolates and room was as clean as can be. Would be nice to have pillow options without having to come out and ask for it. And everything in the room was working as it should be.

I am in complete agreement with you on this one. I have stayed in the GF several times this year and experienced everything you indicated: turn down service with chocolates, a clean room everyday, and every thing worked for us as well.

 

[Rteetz]

It looks pretty nice. It might help them sell some houses at Golden Oak. There are still a few more plots of land available for further expansion there, but I don't know if that would be another hotel or more retail space.

This is where 445 of the deluxe rooms taken away from Poly and WL for DVC are going. WDW isn't technically losing deluxe rooms they are just shifting to a non-Disney owned property. I assume Disney gets some licensing rights since they are having a character breakfast there and bus service to the parks.

Yes i believe they just okayed Golden Oak phase 3 which is just another plot filled with homes.

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

Even with 30% off, Disney's site (and Orbitz) still says $300+tax. Where did you see that price?

Early September, Orbitz price plus the extra 10% off they are offering. Click on the room that says $303, once you continue it will apply the additional ten percent or you can manually enter the code. Boom.. $273 a night.

Plus $116 in Orbucks that could be used for a flight or rental car.

 

[zweltar]

Revenue numbers can't be made up.

False.

 

[stevehousse]

Yes i believe they just okayed Golden Oak phase 3 which is just another plot filled with homes.

And are those homes in golden oaks actually selling?

 

[EpcoTim]

I am in complete agreement with you on this one. I have stayed in the GF several times this year and experienced everything you indicated: turn down service with chocolates, a clean room everyday, and every thing worked for us as well.

A clean room and functioning necessities don't make a 4 star hotel. Turn down service and chocolates.......ok........but those are negated by the fact that you can hear your neighbor flush the crapper or turn on the shower. Cheap chocolate means nothing when your "4-star" room is smaller than the motor homes in the parking lot. Need a reservation for a good, high-end restaurant with some help from the hotel?

Of course not........chocolate on the pillows.

 

[tirian]

For those of you who received the service at the GF, I'm impressed. I've stayed there at least 10 times over the last five years and didn't get those things within the last 2 years.

Turn-down and chocolates are very small, but appreciated, gestures.

However, the resort is still overpriced and nowhere near the true 4 and 5-star hotels I've stayed in. (That list includes Ritz-Carlton, Waldorf-Astoria, W, Omni, and some boutiques.)

The bottom line is, I want Disney to step up its game again. I don't want to complain online for the heck of it.

That's funny I just stayed 2 weeks at the grand and the room would be 4 stars in my book. My room was turned down every night with chocolates and room was as clean as can be. Would be nice to have pillow options without having to come out and ask for it. And everything in the room was working as it should be.

I am in complete agreement with you on this one. I have stayed in the GF several times this year and experienced everything you indicated: turn down service with chocolates, a clean room everyday, and every thing worked for us as well.

A clean room and functioning necessities don't make a 4 star hotel. Turn down service and chocolates.......ok........but those are negated by the fact that you can hear your neighbor flush the crapper or turn on the shower. Cheap chocolate means nothing when your "4-star" room is smaller than the motor homes in the parking lot. Need a reservation for a good, high-end restaurant with some help from the hotel?

Of course not........chocolate on the pillows.

 

[Bolna]

Generally, those who purchase DVC directly from Disney are impulse shoppers. Yes, there are many well-educated buyers that post on threads such as these, but that's what makes them well-educated. They don't necessarily represent the 'typical' DVC buyer.

This! On my last cruise I got to chat with quite a few DVC members who kept telling me how they kind of stopped going to WDW because it became boring after a few years, but that the great thing about DVC is that you can use your points for those wonderful cruises. I did not have the heart to tell them that this is one of the worst ways to use your points from a financial point of view...

 

[seascape]

Again since someone here does not understand accounting. Revenue numbers cannot be made up. Profits can be but revenues can't make. That is why when companies issue their financial reports analysts look at both top line and bottom line numbers. It is also why a cash flow is reported along with profits. Again we will see on August 5th what Disney parks revenue was for the quarter and for the first 6 month of the year and like I said for universals numbers you have to look at the 2 quarters because of the calendar and the way the holiday fell. The second quarter should have higher occupancy and attendance because the holiday was later and so the first quarter was lower that it would have been.

Bringing this back on thread. Hotel occupancy and park attendance are highest during the holidays and summer. Hotels like those at Disney and Universal have a goal of just over 80% occupancy. If they were over 85% it would be time to build more rooms. The reason for this is not everyone stays for a week. In fact the vast majority stay 3 to 4 days and it is almost impossible to fill up every room every night during a week. 80% occupancy means the average room is filled 5.6 nights a week. It's easy to say Disney has a proble.if 5000 rooms a night on average are available but the when Universal gets their 15000 rooms, the number they said they want, they will average 3000 empty rooms on average and be very happy. 80% occupancy is a great number and yes 86% that Disney had in 2006 was better but that is why AoA had to be finished. Disney will make more money with 80% to 82% occupancy in 2014 than they did in 2006 with 86%.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Bringing this back on thread. Hotel occupancy and park attendance are highest during the holidays and summer. Hotels like those at Disney and Universal have a goal of just over 80% occupancy. If they were over 85% it would be time to build more rooms. The reason for this is not everyone stays for a week. In fact the vast majority stay 3 to 4 days and it is almost impossible to fill up every room every night during a week. 80% occupancy means the average room is filled 5.6 nights a week. It's easy to say Disney has a proble.if 5000 rooms a night on average are available but the when Universal gets their 15000 rooms, the number they said they want, they will average 3000 empty rooms on average and be very happy. 80% occupancy is a great number and yes 86% that Disney had in 2006 was better but that is why AoA had to be finished. Disney will make more money with 80% to 82% occupancy in 2014 than they did in 2006 with 86%.

So what you're suggesting is that Disney will eliminate printed napkins to save fractions of a penny on a per unit basis but find the loss of a potential $500 million in annual revenue acceptable?

With the modern practice of Lean Enterprise, any executive who would let 20% of capacity go to waste should be fired.

Poly (and possibly WL) hotel rooms are being converted to DVC exactly because that level of waste is considered completely unacceptable.

 

[seascape]

So what you're suggesting is that Disney will eliminate printed napkins to save fractions of a penny on a per unit basis but find the loss of a potential $500 million in annual revenue acceptable?

With the modern practice of Lean Enterprise, any executive who would let 20% of capacity go to waste should be fired.

Poly (and possibly WL) hotel rooms are being converted to DVC exactly because that level of waste is considered completely unacceptable.

Okay let's go this way. You run a hotel business. You are guaranteed 15,000 rooms can be filled every night 365 days a year. 100% percent capacity. Do you build 15,000 rooms or more? Now the problem for you to decide is that if you can fill 26,000 at 100% for 2 weeks and the rest of the weeks you are in between how many rooms would you build? What is you could sell 30,000 rooms for 3 or 4 nights a year? No hotel will ever be at 100% capacity because it would not be maximizing profits. That is like manufacturing capacity. No one can afford to be at 100% because they would not be maximizing profits and would have to turn down sales. Please tell me an industry or business that is at 100%. Maybe you should ask spirit. He knows this is right but has never commented on this because he knows I am right. Further hotel companies keep adding more and more rooms in Orlando outside of Universal and Disney even though off site capacity is below 75%. Why? Are they stupid? You think they are, all of them. Hotels are not based on anywhere near capacity to break even or make a profit.

I don't know how many ways I can explain this. I understand that this is a difficult thing to understand because 20% sounds like a large number but 50% for most hotels is still profitable although only slightly.

 

[Lucky]

DVC purchasers cut across all demographics. The only requirement is that they have sufficient cash on hand or credit to finance their DVC purchases.

Currently, WDW is only actively marketing VGF, yet they have dozens of DVC booths scattered throughout WDW. Realistically, what percentage of guests purchasing VGF DVC at those booths have ever stayed at the Grand Floridian?

Generally, those who purchase DVC directly from Disney are impulse shoppers. Yes, there are many well-educated buyers that post on threads such as these, but that's what makes them well-educated. They don't necessarily represent the 'typical' DVC buyer.

Looking at the larger pool of DVC purchasers, most buy without ever having researched the financials or having stayed at the resort. They are on vacation having fun and got hooked after listening to a sales pitch.

There will be some Poly regulars who will purchase the Poly DVC but that group will represent only a small percentage of all Poly DVC purchases.

Converting Deluxe Resort rooms to DVC works exactly because there is only a small overlap between those staying at the hotel and those deciding to purchase a timeshare.

Do you have any estimates of how often DVC rooms are occupied by non-owning renters?

 

[ParentsOf4]

Okay let's go this way. You run a hotel business. You are guaranteed 15,000 rooms can be filled every night 365 days a year. 100% percent capacity. Do you build 15,000 rooms or more? Now the problem for you to decide is that if you can fill 26,000 at 100% for 2 weeks and the rest of the weeks you are in between how many rooms would you build? What is you could sell 30,000 rooms for 3 or 4 nights a year? No hotel will ever be at 100% capacity because it would not be maximizing profits. That is like manufacturing capacity. No one can afford to be at 100% because they would not be maximizing profits and would have to turn down sales. Please tell me an industry or business that is at 100%. Maybe you should ask spirit. He knows this is right but has never commented on this because he knows I am right. Further hotel companies keep adding more and more rooms in Orlando outside of Universal and Disney even though off site capacity is below 75%. Why? Are they stupid? You think they are, all of them. Hotels are not based on anywhere near capacity to break even or make a profit.

I don't know how many ways I can explain this. I understand that this is a difficult thing to understand because 20% sounds like a large number but 50% for most hotels is still profitable although only slightly.

So for WDW's first 30 years of operation WDW ran at over 90% occupancy but now 80% is suddenly acceptable?

With the exception of SSR, WDW DVC occupancies run at over 95%.

Converting unused hotel rooms to DVC is the correct move for Disney exactly because the number of unoccupied rooms have reached unacceptable levels.

Disney is taking steps to fill empty rooms. They are not sitting on their duff saying to themselves "An 80% occupancy rate is acceptable." Do you think Iger and Rasulo say to Wall Street, "The hotels are full enough"?

When running a business, the status quo is never acceptable. If Disney's executives aren't constantly looking for new ways to improve business, then Disney better be looking for new executives.

Your entire line of reasoning flies in the face of what Disney is doing at the Poly.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Do you have any estimates of how often DVC rooms are occupied by non-owning renters?

DVC members receive Condominium Association Meeting Notices containing estimated budgets. These budgets include estimates for "Breakage Income". This represents revenue Disney projects to receive for DVC rooms not rented from DVC members. Using BWV as an example, this was about 3% of the estimated 2014 budget. Obviously, non-DVC members pay significantly more that DVC members to rent rooms. Therefore, a rough estimate would be that about 1-2% of the rooms 'owned' by DVC members are rented by Disney to non-DVC members.

As far as I'm aware, there are no public sources for the percentage of points rented directly from DVC members.

 

[seascape]

So for WDW's first 30 years of operation WDW ran at over 90% occupancy but now 80% is suddenly acceptable?

With the exception of SSR, WDW DVC occupancies run at over 95%.

Converting unused hotel rooms to DVC is the correct move for Disney exactly because the number of unoccupied rooms have reached unacceptable levels.

Disney is taking steps to fill empty rooms. They are not sitting on their duff saying to themselves "An 80% occupancy rate is acceptable." Do you think Iger and Rasulo say to Wall Street, "The hotels are full enough"?

When running a business, the status quo is never acceptable. If Disney's executives aren't constantly looking for new ways to improve business, then Disney better be looking for new executives.

Your entire line of reasoning flies in the face of what Disney is doing at the Poly.

Okay let's try it this way. I think we all agree that a Disney deluxe rooms are not 5 star quality. I think Disney has decided and correctly that there are not that many customers willing to pay the Charles's rates to stay in a Disney deluxe hotel. BTW the Charles only sells out at the start of the school year and graduation. In fact Disney's mid priced resorts are over priced and so are their value. On a price basis the mid priced are actually high priced and the Disney value is actually mid priced. The only value hotels in Orlando are off site. Now is it good or bad to convert the so called Disney deluxe hotels to DVC? I think it's a great idea. Others differ so what. It has nothing to do with the parks. The parks attendance and attractions are what matters. All the DVC and hotel rooms do is feed the parks attendance. Also I am sure we will see an additional moderate price resort and so called value resort built and the real value priced resorts will go to flamingo crossing which spirit did not say was dead but that the shopping area like DTD was dead.

 

[alphac2005]

No, Disney isn't being proactive. They are flailing embarrassingly. Us Doom and Gloomers have, for a decade, seen this coming based on their unsustainable business model. We have been loudly and proudly waving the big red flag and we were told by the "faithful" that Disney is infallible. They know what they are doing. Well, obviously they don't.
So now the plan, since they have overpriced the rooms to the point the resorts simply can't operate with the current load levels, is to eliminate hotel rooms.
God forbid that attendance level drop at, say, DHS. What will they do? Ply board up half the park?

And the likes of us were treated, how should I say this, rather rudely for pointing out the writing on the wall that we saw.

 

[RSoxNo1]

This thread started with the declaration that Wilderness Lodge would be the next DVC property and it would be mostly conversion of existing rooms. As we know, this change in thinking largely dominated the Polynesian DVC, more or less right under our noses. We just didn't know it as the new normal.

What I'd be interested to see now is the mix of rooms and how that has changed. Art of Animation filled a need, but also brought the average price per room down without lowering the price across the board. Converting Deluxe to DVC also serves the purpose and makes the mix of rooms more skewed towards less expensive resorts.

 

[alphac2005]

Generally, those who purchase DVC directly from Disney are impulse shoppers. Yes, there are many well-educated buyers that post on threads such as these, but that's what makes them well-educated. They don't necessarily represent the 'typical' DVC buyer.

The plethora of DVC sales kiosks throughout the property are pretty good evidence to any of us that don't have any statistics that DVC has a whole lot of impulse shoppers. If my company had the type of impulse buyers that Disney has with DVC, then I'd not only be living on an island, I'd own it as well by now.

 

[ABQ]

A clean room and functioning necessities don't make a 4 star hotel. Turn down service and chocolates.......ok........but those are negated by the fact that you can hear your neighbor flush the crapper or turn on the shower. Cheap chocolate means nothing when your "4-star" room is smaller than the motor homes in the parking lot. Need a reservation for a good, high-end restaurant with some help from the hotel?

Of course not........chocolate on the pillows.

To be fair though, complaints that The GF charges more than the Four Seasons for a lesser quality hotel is one thing, but many are saying part of that lesser quality is a decline in services and possibly overall experience within the GF while back in the day, apparently, it was better. However, are you saying the walls have grown thinner or the toilets have grown louder? 10+ years ago, were people not complaining of the sound of someone else's experience on the Grand Throne? I'm just trying to be sure that you're not stating other, true 4 Star hotels don't provide a better bang for their buck due to increasingly loud American Standard 2 gallon per flush crappers when it should really be something like cleaner, better linens, more plush carpeting, clean windows and 100% functioning popcorn lights.

 

[Bolna]

The plethora of DVC sales kiosks throughout the property are pretty good evidence to any of us that don't have any statistics that DVC has a whole lot of impulse shoppers. If my company had the type of impulse buyers that Disney has with DVC, then I'd not only be living on an island, I'd own it as well by now.

That's right - the same goes for the cruises. There seem to be presentations being offered every day. You get some nice gifts and free drinks. Besides that DVC members get even more gifts, including a special lanyard with referral cards that you can pass on to people with whom you might chat onboard and tell about your wonderful DVC membership. as well as the so called "member celebrations". I think the only reason for those member gifts is actually to make the non-DVCers aware of how nice it is to be a DVC member. Quite a few of them turn you into a walking DVC comercial - especially the hats they give out! And DVC members proudly wear their lanyards and hats.