News Walt Disney World to resume sales of Annual Passes (New sales resume April 20, 2023)

[Jrb1979]

If direct ro consumer wont work for the Walt Disney Company long-term, then you might as well say it won’t work for anyone unless they don’t care if they lose any money on it (Apple TV+ or Prime Video).

Disney needs to use its power in the market to lead on price and expectations for the service, but spending money on a high volume of bad content, not rotating in all of their legacy content, and not recovering their box office on theatrical releases post-COVID damages their ability to do that.

I think direct to consumer can work just not in the way it is now. There needs to a change in how new content is available. IMO all new content should be behind a paywall for the first 6 months.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Some did mention the dangers of streaming services when Bob went all-in on D+, namely the expense of needing to continually produce new content at a high rate to keep subscribers from doing the binge-and-purge. 3 years later and… warning not heeded. D+ bleeding cash profusely. No solution in sight.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The parks would have been in deep trouble if it weren't for linear cable during the lockdown and distancing. They kept the whole of Disney Corp. near break-even.

But the linear cable channels won't be there for the next Great Recession or Plague with all the cord cutting. The parks will be relying on the replacement for the cable channels, that is, streaming.

If you aren't rooting for streaming to be successful, you're putting the parks in peril for the next Recession/Plague.

Are you under the impression that parks tank 50% in recession?

Try 10…if it’s bad. And they have to adjust to lure people there…it always has and will work

But your lord Bob said to his broker he could charge unlimited prices and cut costs…because of “the brand”
And sold a nonsense belief of a “post recession world”

Blue ocean theory.

Here we go

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think direct to consumer can work just not in the way it is now. There needs to a change in how new content is available. IMO all new content should be behind a paywall for the first 6 months.

They’d collapse the service right out of the gate. People will not pay daily for streaming access…like a movie ticket

Nope…no desire for that

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You don't know how lucky you were that Kong and Fast and Furious were down, if anything, that added to your Universal Orlando experience

Those might be the worst two things ever?

But I wonder if uni lets them rot for 20/30 years like imagination and beauty and the beast?

 

[Jrb1979]

They’d collapse the service right out of the gate. People will not pay daily for streaming access…like a movie ticket

Nope…no desire for that

The only option is then is to raise prices til you get to the spot where it makes money. In the end people will most likely end up paying more then they did for cable.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Some did mention the dangers of streaming services when Bob went all-in on D+, namely the expense of needing to continually produce new content at a high rate to keep subscribers from doing the binge-and-purge. 3 years later and… warning not heeded. D+ bleeding cash profusely. No solution in sight.

How is that any different than their linear channels and theatrical releases?

 

[Jrb1979]

How is that any different than their linear channels and theatrical releases?

The linear channels and theatrical releases at one time made money to cover those expenses. Right now streaming doesn't do that. It's a struggle for all streaming companies. They haven't figured out how to go from linear channels to streaming and make the same money.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The linear channels and theatrical releases at one time made money to cover those expenses. Right now streaming doesn't do that. It's a struggle for all streaming companies. They haven't figured out how to go from linear channels to streaming and make the same money.

Streaming isn't covering the expenses for two reasons:

1. Disney is still spending on infrastructure to get their streamers into every country, like Netflix did.

2. Disney was late jacking up the price. Iger constantly said D+ was underpriced, and as such, purposefully a loss-leader in order to build up subscriptions. And they were waiting until they were putting out two new titles per week to increase the price so as to psychologically justify the price increase. D+ priced at Netflix levels would be profitable.

Their internal projections still have their streamers profitable in 2024.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Profitable by 2024 has two problems:
1. How “profitable”? Like enough to make a little…or to increase profits every quarter?
How is the latter possible?
3. Streaming is more challenging than parks: you will never rest. The need to constantly refresh/add is never going away.

The math is tough here

 

[JoeCamel]

Profitable by 2024 has two problems:
1. How “profitable”? Like enough to make a little…or to increase profits every quarter?
How is the latter possible?
3. Streaming is more challenging than parks: you will never rest. The need to constantly refresh/add is never going away.

The math is tough here

Metric for the parks has been to get 10% yoy increases so i would expect more than that with the growth potential of the base. As you say it requires constant investment and will never be able to rest on the laurels.

 

[Tha Realest]

I’d rather have more Disney archives and company based documentaries than $20 million an episode super hero and Star Wars sagas.

They‘ve gone all in on massively expensive Marvel and Star Wars shows and completely forgotten they are the Disney co.



The VHS/DVD/Blu-ray model of releasing approximately six months later worked pretty well for the last 40 years… not sure why they don’t just go back to that.

Just long enough to encourage you to pay for a theater ticket but short enough it still feels like a “new” movie.

Yes but when they have to do marketing blitzes costing $50-$100M per movie, and they also have a subscription service to promote, and the studio’s next film is coming out three weeks later…there is a finite amount of oxygen in the room. I think the promotional costs of pushing a more modestly budgeted movie that’s being released in theaters vs “dumping” it on a streamer is a calculus many of us don’t appreciate.

We’re also in a transitory period where films were budgeted and produced with the expectation of recouping at least X in box office + rentals + home video sales + cable/streaming revenue, and those revenue streams dried up or disappeared completely. Couple that with talent no longer being in a position to earn on the back end, and productions become even more expensive in up front costs.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Metric for the parks has been to get 10% yoy increases so i would expect more than that with the growth potential of the base. As you say it requires constant investment and will never be able to rest on the laurels.

The idea that there will be 2,000,000,000 D+ subscriptions…watching ads…on a planet of 8,000,000,000…

…just might be a bridge on the River Kwai too far?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Metric for the parks has been to get 10% yoy increases so i would expect more than that with the growth potential of the base. As you say it requires constant investment and will never be able to rest on the laurels.

Any 10% yoy is a nuts too.
They won’t add anything for a minimum 5 years at their mismanaged pace at this point…and all the crap is on shopDisney and you don’t have to pay frontier $60 to carry it in your carryon

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes but when they have to do marketing blitzes costing $50-$100M per movie, and they also have a subscription service to promote, and the studio’s next film is coming out three weeks later…there is a finite amount of oxygen in the room. I think the promotional costs of pushing a more modestly budgeted movie that’s being released in theaters vs “dumping” it on a streamer is a calculus many of us don’t appreciate.

We’re also in a transitory period where films were budgeted and produced with the expectation of recouping at least X in box office + rentals + home video sales + cable/streaming revenue, and those revenue streams dried up or disappeared completely. Couple that with talent no longer being in a position to earn on the back end, and productions become even more expensive in up front costs.

The reason they can’t sit on things for 6 months is there are 31 rival streaming services who will undercut you.

A very downplayed move that was huge was when Warner immediately dumped their new movies onto HBO in 2020…
That had to be a dark day at Disney that created a chain reaction

 

[Tha Realest]

Any 10% yoy is a nuts too.
They won’t add anything for a minimum 5 years at their mismanaged pace at this point…and all the crap is on shopDisney and you don’t have to pay frontier $60 to carry it in your carryon

I’ve been trying to think of a way to articulate this. Your comment on the merch is helping a bit. I can’t help but notice that the quality of the merch has decreased in the last few years. Nothing exciting or “must have.” Just lazy design choices.

I feel like that with a lot of the D+ productions of late. It’s not cheap - I’m sure She-Hulk and Obi-Wan and National Treasure and Willow and a ton of other stuff cost a pretty penny. But then I thought about it, and while there are some bright spots in Disney’s television history - the original Disneyland shows, Disney Afternoon series, etc., Disney hasn’t been known to produce a great deal of quality tv content. A great deal of content, sure. But quality? That’s another story.

I fear that with a few exceptions - Favreau/Filoni/Feige, or vault stuff like The Simpsons - D+ still lacks a killer app.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’ve been trying to think of a way to articulate this. Your comment on the merch is helping a bit. I can’t help but notice that the quality of the merch has decreased in the last few years. Nothing exciting or “must have.” Just lazy design choices.

I feel like that with a lot of the D+ productions of late. It’s not cheap - I’m sure She-Hulk and Obi-Wan and National Treasure and Willow and a ton of other stuff cost a pretty penny. But then I thought about it, and while there are some bright spots in Disney’s television history - the original Disneyland shows, Disney Afternoon series, etc., Disney hasn’t been known to produce a great deal of quality tv content. A great deal of content, sure. But quality? That’s another story.

I fear that with a few exceptions - Favreau/Filoni/Feige, or vault stuff like The Simpsons - D+ still lacks a killer app.

I think the volume is always gonna be a killer…a battle that will never end.

That and the disposal nature of streaming news and fleeting attention spans. It will only rise


As far as merch goes…I have wondered for many years how airline/travel have added to bleed on merch profits…which are THE profits at parks? Other factors too…but the limits on hauling it home has to hurt a lot. All day, every day. Couple that with a Convenient bus ride? Hmmm…

But think about it - remember all those people carrying the plastic bags down the isles of the plane and shoving them everywhere? That’s was all profits for Disney. 80-90%
Do you see that much anymore?

I’m gonna write a book…
Several actually…

But until then I’ll spend 50% of my time around here

 

[fgmnt]

I think the volume is always gonna be a killer…a battle that will never end.

That and the disposal nature of streaming news and fleeting attention spans. It will only rise


As far as merch goes…I have wondered for many years how airline/travel have added to bleed on merch profits…which are THE profits at parks? Other factors too…but the limits on hauling it home has to hurt a lot. All day, every day. Couple that with a Convenient bus ride? Hmmm…

But think about it - remember all those people carrying the plastic bags down the isles of the plane and shoving them everywhere? That’s was all profits for Disney. 80-90%
Do you see that much anymore?

I’m gonna write a book…
Several actually…

But until then I’ll spend 50% of my time around here

An interesting piece of anecdata related to this operation: i remember seeing what had to have been a dozen little banshees from the Pandora rookery being placed into overhead bins on the first flight i took back after that opened. Can’t say the same god the droids, and while we’re at it, where do you put the lightsabers?

None of those pack as tightly as a wand.

 

[MatheusPG]

Those might be the worst two things ever?

But I wonder if uni lets them rot for 20/30 years like imagination and beauty and the beast?

For me, they are easily the worst rides ever created by Universal, Fallon is also pretty bad. But I don't think that they will survive as long as Imagination and Beauty and the Beast, because of Universal's lack of space. Fast and Furious specially, since is located in front of office spaces that are rumored to be moving to Epic Universe, so, that space in USF could even become a new land in the future.

 

[lewisc]

Posters are discussing the economics of Disney +. Don't forget loss of revenue from content sales to Netflix etc. Content is being used for Disney +